Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Protection gaps are shared risk
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Insurance and Protection Gap Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Spread of 2025 insured loss estimates | 129 minus 107 | 22 USD billion |
| (2) | Spread of 2025 economic loss estimates | 296 minus 220 | 76 USD billion |
| (3) | FAIR Plan exposure per policy, September 2026 | 773 billion ÷ 698,307 | ≈ USD 1.1 million |
| (4) | Insured share of Asia-Pacific losses, 2025 | 9 ÷ 73 | ≈ 12% |
| (5) | Swiss Re implied uninsured share, 2025 | 100 minus 49 | ≈ 51% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Insurance and Protection Gap Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR06-INSURANCE · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent insurance and risk financing as a linked system and the mechanisms by which loss moves between households, insurers, reinsurers and governments
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
1strong
documented within one season
4moderate
documented, buffered
15weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 insurance and protection gaps annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Insurance and Protection Gap Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global insured loss estimates | 2025 | Jan to Mar 2026 | annual | next annual reports in early 2027 |
| Protection gap, all perils | 2023 | Jul 2024 | annual | no later edition found |
| US homeowners availability | 2018 to 2022 | Jan 2025 | one-off | NAIC data call under way |
| California FAIR Plan | Sep 2026 | Sep 2026 | quarterly | next quarter |
| Florida Citizens | Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | weekly | current count not retrieved |
| US flood programme | Nov 2026 | Sep 2026 | per extension | 11 December 2026 |
| European protection gap data | 1980 to 2024 | Dec 2025 | annual | next update |
| Parametric payouts | to Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | per event | post-close, context only: 83 payouts and about USD 500 million to October 202617 |
| Reinsurance pricing | Jan 2026 | Jan 2026 | annual | January 2027 renewals |
| Cyber premiums | 2025 | 2026 | annual | next survey |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Natural catastrophe loss totals | GOOD | one-method global series |
| Protection gap | PARTIAL | gap for 2025 on one method |
| Residual markets | PARTIAL | schemes outside the US |
| Public backstops | PARTIAL | scheme coverage by country |
| Availability | THIN | data outside the US |
| Cyber | THIN | insured share of loss |
| Health and mortality gaps | THIN | values after 2023 |
| Affordability | THIN | household cost of cover |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Global insured and economic loss for 2025 on one stated method | Swiss Re Institute, Munich Re, Aon, Gallagher Re annual reports | four estimates differ in scope; the Swiss Re and Munich Re reports were read through trade coverage and not in full |
| Global protection gap for 2025 on one method | Swiss Re resilience index or a successor | no 2024 or 2025 edition of the index found; 2023 is the latest bound value |
| Health, mortality and crop protection gaps | Swiss Re resilience index5 | component values were not retrieved from a primary page |
| Household affordability of cover by country | national statistics offices, supervisors and insurers | no comparable series found |
| Withdrawal of cover and nonrenewal outside the United States | national supervisors | not retrieved; no comparable series found |
| US nonrenewal and premium data after 2022 | NAIC homeowners data call23 | the data call is in design; no published series found |
| Current Florida Citizens policy count | Florida Citizens weekly figures9 | the Citizens page was not found; the latest bound count is from late November 2025 |
| Cyber insured share of loss | Munich Re survey and national incident data19 | the page gives premiums and forecasts, not an insured share |
| UNDRR GAR 2025 figures on disaster loss and insurance | UNDRR GAR 202526 | not opened; no figure from it is used |
| EU protection gap values from the EIOPA dashboard | EIOPA dashboard13 | the dashboard page gives scope but no value; the dashboard itself was not read |
| Capital and solvency position of residual markets after a large loss | scheme annual reports | not retrieved |
| Capability rungs beyond loss response | insurers, supervisors, ministries | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by a reinsurance broker. Annual with half-year updates. Role: binds FIN-001 and FIN-002. Coverage: global. The figures were read in trade coverage of the report; the report itself was not opened.
EVD-SR06-001
Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report4
Issued by a national agency. One-off. Role: binds FIN-006. Coverage: US ZIP Codes, 2018 to 2022. The release page was read; the report itself was not opened.
EVD-SR06-002
US Treasury Federal Insurance Office homeowners report12
| Dimension | EVD-SR06-001 | EVD-SR06-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | broker sample and model estimates | 330 insurers; ZIP Code aggregates |
| Timeliness | about 1 to 3 months after year end | about 3 years after the last data year |
| Revision | later reports restate prior years | none found |
| Method transparency | scope stated in the report; not read in full | method stated in the release |
| External validation | compared here against three other publishers | industry groups dispute the reading |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ARPC | Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation |
| CCRIF | Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility |
| CRS | Congressional Research Service |
| EIOPA | European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority |
| FIO | Federal Insurance Office |
| IAIS | International Association of Insurance Supervisors |
| ISSB | International Sustainability Standards Board |
| NAIC | National Association of Insurance Commissioners |
| NFIP | National Flood Insurance Program |
| RMA | Risk Management Agency |
| SCS | severe convective storm |
| UNDRR | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR06-LOSS-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional protection gap cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: protection gap
- Construct
- the part of economic loss or need that is not covered by insurance or other pre-arranged finance
- Unit
- share of economic loss, or premium equivalent in USD
- Method
- economic loss less insured loss, as stated by each publisher
- Source
- Aon3; Gallagher Re4; Swiss Re5
- Uncertainty
- economic loss is modelled; scope and perils differ between publishers
- Known limits
- does not record affordability, take-up by income or the cost of public relief
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23POST-CLOSE, context only: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (ed.), Homeowners Insurance (most mortgage lenders require homeowners coverage; Homeowners Market Data Call meetings of 14 and 16 October 2026 and a joint meeting set for 16 November 2026). NAIC, Kansas City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back