Strategic Systems Report 2026: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the insurance and protection gaps baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes: rising exposure, secondary perils and low take-up recur across markets.¹²⁵

   Do protection gaps have common causes?Reported

2. Through nonrenewal, residual markets and short-dated public schemes.⁸⁹¹⁰¹²

   How do gaps spread?Reported

3. Between 51% and 56% of 2025 economic losses, by two estimates.³⁴

   How large is the gap?Reported

4. No: national resilience ran from about 5% to above 80% in 2023.⁵

   Is the gap the same everywhere?Reported

5. In high-risk US ZIP Codes nonrenewals were higher, 2018 to 2022.¹²

   Is cover getting harder to keep?Reported

6. In part, and on different terms and time limits.^10161848

   Do public schemes fill the gap?Reported

7. Reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at January 2026 while loss trends rose.¹²

   What do prices say?Reported

8. A large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops. SCN-SR06-LOSS-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.

A low global share does not mean low gaps everywhere. Aon ties it to losses concentrated in a market with high take-up, and Munich Re shows only USD 9 billion insured of about USD 73 billion in Asia-Pacific³².

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is insurance and protection gaps risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry insurance and protection gaps shocks into other systems?
• Which insurance and protection gaps capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The insurance and protection gaps-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their insurance and protection gaps content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → FIN → DEV

   Secondary perils raise insured losses while take-up stays low in some markets.

   Reported 2025¹²

2. 02

   FIN → FIN

   Nonrenewal pushes policies into a residual market.

   Reported FAIR Plan 2026⁸ · FIO¹²

3. 03

   WAT → INF → FIN

   Flood falls outside homeowners cover and onto a short-dated public scheme.

   Reported NFIP 2025 to 2026¹⁰¹¹

4. 04

   FIN ↔ TRD

   Reinsurance pricing responds to capital and recent losses.

   Reported renewals 2026²

5. 05

   DAT → FIN

   A young cyber market grows from a small base.

   Reported 2025¹⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.

Implication

A low global share does not mean low gaps everywhere. Aon ties it to losses concentrated in a market with high take-up, and Munich Re shows only USD 9 billion insured of about USD 73 billion in Asia-Pacific³².

What would move it

A year with large losses outside the United States, a shared method for the gap, or a published national series would each move this finding.

2.2Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

   Four published estimates put 2025 global insured natural catastrophe losses between USD 107 billion and USD 129 billion, and economic losses between USD 220 billion and USD 296 billion.¹²³⁴

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.³⁴

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Swiss Re put the 2023 global protection gap across all perils at USD 1.83 trillion, and natural catastrophe resilience, the insured share of economic losses, at 25.7%, with national values from about 5% to above 80%.⁵

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   In a US Treasury study of more than 330 insurers and 246 million policies over 2018 to 2022, nonrenewal rates were about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes than in the lowest-risk ones.¹²

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   The California FAIR Plan held 698,307 policies and USD 773 billion of exposure in September 2026, up 157% and 252% since September 2022.⁸

6. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

   Florida Citizens held about 1.4 million policies at its September 2023 peak and 439,079 in late November 2025 after rounds of transfers to private insurers.⁹

7. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   Risk-adjusted property catastrophe reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at January 2026 renewals, the largest fall since 2014, while Swiss Re models a peak-loss scenario of about USD 320 billion for 2026 against USD 148 billion at normal levels.¹²

2.3Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   Swiss Re reports that secondary perils made up 92% of 2025 insured losses, that the Los Angeles wildfires were the largest insured wildfire loss on sigma records at USD 40 billion, and that insured losses grow 5% to 7% a year in real terms.¹

2.4Development

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004

   Munich Re puts 2025 losses in Asia-Pacific at about USD 73 billion, of which USD 9 billion was insured, and losses in Africa at about USD 3 billion, with less than a fifth insured.²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011

   Public schemes close part of the gap in different ways: CCRIF made 78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025, the Australian cyclone pool has run since 1 July 2022 with a government guarantee of 10 billion Australian dollars, and Flood Re is planned to run to 2039.¹⁶¹⁸⁴⁸

2.5Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-009

   The US flood programme covers nearly 4.5 million policies and almost USD 1.3 trillion of coverage, is authorised only to 11 December 2026, and lapsed from 1 October to 12 November 2025. Most homeowners policies exclude flood.¹⁰¹¹

2.6Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large insured loss that meets soft reinsurance pricing, short-dated public backstops and thin household cover. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through insurance and protection gaps, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries insurance and protection gaps risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on insurance and protection gaps, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 24USDA Risk Management Agency (ed.), About RMA (created 1996; supports the private insurers that sell federal crop insurance). US Department of Agriculture, Washington. Observation year 1996. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M., Neglecting disaster: why don’t people insure against large losses?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5 to 21, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR06-FIN-001

   Large insured loss meeting soft reinsurance pricing

   Driver

   rising insured losses against falling reinsurance rates¹²

   Exposure

   insurers, reinsurers, lenders, households

   Vulnerability

   rates set before the next large event; thin retained capital in places

   Capacity

   record reinsurance capital reported²; public backstops

   Cascade

   CLI → FIN → DEV

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR06-FIN-002

   Withdrawal of cover and growth of residual markets

   Driver

   higher nonrenewal rates in high-risk areas¹²

   Exposure

   homeowners in wildfire, storm and flood zones

   Vulnerability

   single-state schemes with growing exposure⁸⁹

   Capacity

   assessment of insurers; transfers to private insurers⁹

   Cascade

   FIN → FIN → INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR06-INF-003

   Lapse of a short-dated public flood scheme

   Driver

   authorisation to 11 December 2026 and lapse in 2025¹⁰

   Exposure

   4.5 million policies and almost USD 1.3 trillion of coverage

   Vulnerability

   repeated short extensions; flood excluded from most home cover¹¹

   Capacity

   policies in force stay active to term; borrowing limit falls to USD 1 billion¹⁰

   Cascade

   WAT → INF → FIN

   Horizon

   annual

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR06-DAT-004

   Cyber accumulation in a young market

   Driver

   premiums close to USD 15 billion, forecast about USD 28 billion by 2030¹⁹

   Exposure

   firms of all sizes in 20 surveyed countries

   Vulnerability

   shared technology dependencies; thin loss data

   Capacity

   reinsurance and risk engineering

   Cascade

   DAT → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology, adopted November 2019, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector, May 2021, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 25Global Shield against Climate Risks (ed.), About (a financing structure for pre-arranged finance against disasters; Solutions Platform, Financing Facility and V20 multi-donor fund). Global Shield Secretariat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pool Re (ed.), terrorism reinsurance pool of the United Kingdom, cited from memory; no figure used; the Pool Re page returned an access error. Pool Reinsurance Company, London. Observation year 1993. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 15European Central Bank and Banque de France (eds.), press release on the ECB and EIOPA proposal for a European approach to natural catastrophes (18 December 2024; page updated 24 September 2026). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Development Forum (ed.), public-private partnership of the insurance industry, the United Nations and multilateral bodies, cited from memory; the page returned no content and no figure is used. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance, topic page, cited from memory; the page returned navigation only and no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Froot, K.A., The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination, Journal of Financial Economics 60, 529 to 571, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR06-LOSS-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a large US wildfire, storm or hurricane loss after a year of falling reinsurance rates

Analogues

Los Angeles wildfires, 2025; reinsurance renewals, January 2026¹²

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → FIN

   a large insured loss lands on insurers and reinsurers

   2025

2. 2

   FIN → FIN

   insurers raise prices and cut cover in high-risk areas

   2018 to 2022

3. 3

   FIN → FIN

   residual markets take more policies and more exposure

   2026

4. 4

   INF → FIN

   a short-dated public flood scheme approaches a deadline

   2025 · 2026

5. 5

   FIN → DEV

   public budgets absorb uninsured loss

   2025

6. 6

   FIN ↔ TRD

   reinsurance prices reset at the next renewal

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR06-LOSS-01 would travel through Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026, scenario SCN-SR06-LOSS-01 (2026); Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for insurance and protection gaps. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 insurance and protection gaps readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers insurance and protection gaps assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s insurance markets, protection gaps and insurability limits and its couplings?

Sources searched

insurer and broker loss reports; supervisory papers; scheme statistics; peer-reviewed insurance economics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology, adopted November 2019, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector, May 2021, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20UNEP Finance Initiative (ed.), Principles for Sustainable Insurance (launched 2012; close to 300 members). United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the monitoring host was not reachable. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Title XIII of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, Public Law 107-297, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24USDA Risk Management Agency (ed.), About RMA (created 1996; supports the private insurers that sell federal crop insurance). US Department of Agriculture, Washington. Observation year 1996. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 15European Central Bank and Banque de France (eds.), press release on the ECB and EIOPA proposal for a European approach to natural catastrophes (18 December 2024; page updated 24 September 2026). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M., Neglecting disaster: why don’t people insure against large losses?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5 to 21, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kousky, C. and Cooke, R., Explaining the failure to insure catastrophic risks, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 37, 206 to 227, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Froot, K.A., The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination, Journal of Financial Economics 60, 529 to 571, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Michel-Kerjan, E.O., Catastrophe economics: the National Flood Insurance Program, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(4), 165 to 186, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cummins, J.D. and Trainar, P., Securitization, insurance, and reinsurance, Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(3), 463 to 492, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ben-Shahar, O. and Logue, K.D., Outsourcing regulation: how insurance reduces moral hazard, Michigan Law Review 111(2), 197 to 248, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 6Risk and Insurance (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute, World insurance in 2026: shock absorbers in a fragmenting world, July 2026 (real premium growth 3.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; no figure used; the IPCC page returned an access error. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. P-01

   How would a large insured loss that meets soft reinsurance pricing and short-dated public backstops move through households, lenders and governments?

   INI-SR06-LOSS-01 · compound loss and backstop test; first output: transmission analysis for six regions.

2. P-02

   What is the global protection gap for 2025 on one stated method, and why do published estimates differ?

   INI-SR06-GAP-02 · one-method gap; first output: reconciliation table.

3. P-03

   Where is cover becoming unavailable or unaffordable, and how fast, outside the United States?

   INI-SR06-AVL-03 · availability and affordability; first output: availability table.

4. P-04

   Which residual markets and public schemes are growing, and how are they funded after a large loss?

   INI-SR06-RES-04 · residual markets and backstops; first output: scheme register.

5. P-05

   How do prevention, pricing and cover interact for wildfire, flood and storm?

   INI-SR06-PRV-05 · prevention and pricing; first output: evidence note.

6. P-06

   How large is the insured share of cyber loss, and where does it accumulate?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

7. P-07

   What do health, mortality and crop protection gaps look like after 2023?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. P-08

   Which risk-financing capabilities have been tested in real losses, and which are only planned?

   Risk-financing capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 insurance portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The insurance edition reads national insurance chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National insurance chapters

   insurance and protection gap reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   finance, disaster, climate, cyber, health

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Insurance and protection gap model

   the global risk-financing system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-01 · SR-05 sovereign and fiscal resilience · SR-14 resilience investment

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Insurance Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the insurance and protection gaps candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR06-2027-01 · Large insured loss Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One driver can raise loss in many markets at once: rising exposure, secondary perils and low take-up of cover. The shared cause matters more than the line of business.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.2Domino effects

A loss in one place removes cover in the next. Nonrenewal sends policies to residual markets, and uncovered flood loss lands on a public scheme or on the household.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Cover also shapes the risk it covers. Price signals and scheme terms can reward mitigation, and capital cycles feed back on prices.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different lines share the same weak points: concentration in a few perils and places, short-dated public schemes and a thin evidence base.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb loss until a threshold is crossed. Scheme deadlines, borrowing limits and the size of a peak loss are such thresholds.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; no figure used; the IPCC page returned an access error. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (ed.), Homeowners Insurance (most mortgage lenders require homeowners coverage; Homeowners Market Data Call meetings of 14 and 16 October 2026 and a joint meeting set for 16 November 2026). NAIC, Kansas City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20UNEP Finance Initiative (ed.), Principles for Sustainable Insurance (launched 2012; close to 300 members). United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Insurance and Protection Gap Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR06-INSURANCE · v0.1

Purpose

represent insurance and risk financing as a linked system and the mechanisms by which loss moves between households, insurers, reinsurers and governments

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 insurance and protection gaps annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• Gallagher Re⁴ and Aon³: report text on scope and method
• Swiss Re¹ and Munich Re²: full reports
• FIO¹²: full report and data tables
• EIOPA¹³: dashboard values for the protection gap

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: protection gap

Construct

the part of economic loss or need that is not covered by insurance or other pre-arranged finance

Unit

share of economic loss, or premium equivalent in USD

Method

economic loss less insured loss, as stated by each publisher

Source

Aon³; Gallagher Re⁴; Swiss Re⁵

Uncertainty

economic loss is modelled; scope and perils differ between publishers

Known limits

does not record affordability, take-up by income or the cost of public relief

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (ed.), Homeowners Insurance (most mortgage lenders require homeowners coverage; Homeowners Market Data Call meetings of 14 and 16 October 2026 and a joint meeting set for 16 November 2026). NAIC, Kansas City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• FIN
• CLI
• INF
• DEV
• DAT
• WAT
• FOO
• HLT
• TRD
• AIC

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: California residual market

• region
• residual market
• wildfire
• availability

Systems in view

homeowners cover, residual market, reinsurance

Defining events

Los Angeles wildfires of January 2025, USD 40 billion insured¹

Couplings

CLI → FIN; FIN → FIN

Capability evidence

residual market operating and growing⁸

Gaps

recovery path of the scheme; assessment data

Agenda items

P-03 · P-04

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the insurance edition through the insurance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Risk Capacity (ed.), African Union specialised agency for parametric drought, flood and cyclone cover, cited from memory; no figure used. African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
5. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
6. 6Risk and Insurance (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute, World insurance in 2026: shock absorbers in a fragmenting world, July 2026 (real premium growth 3.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
7. 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
12. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
14. 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15European Central Bank and Banque de France (eds.), press release on the ECB and EIOPA proposal for a European approach to natural catastrophes (18 December 2024; page updated 24 September 2026). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
16. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
18. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20UNEP Finance Initiative (ed.), Principles for Sustainable Insurance (launched 2012; close to 300 members). United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (ed.), Homeowners Insurance (most mortgage lenders require homeowners coverage; Homeowners Market Data Call meetings of 14 and 16 October 2026 and a joint meeting set for 16 November 2026). NAIC, Kansas City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
24. 24USDA Risk Management Agency (ed.), About RMA (created 1996; supports the private insurers that sell federal crop insurance). US Department of Agriculture, Washington. Observation year 1996. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
25. 25Global Shield against Climate Risks (ed.), About (a financing structure for pre-arranged finance against disasters; Solutions Platform, Financing Facility and V20 multi-donor fund). Global Shield Secretariat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; no figure used; the IPCC page returned an access error. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the monitoring host was not reachable. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology, adopted November 2019, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector, May 2021, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pool Re (ed.), terrorism reinsurance pool of the United Kingdom, cited from memory; no figure used; the Pool Re page returned an access error. Pool Reinsurance Company, London. Observation year 1993. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, Public Law 107-297, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Title XIII of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Development Forum (ed.), public-private partnership of the insurance industry, the United Nations and multilateral bodies, cited from memory; the page returned no content and no figure is used. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Risk Capacity (ed.), African Union specialised agency for parametric drought, flood and cyclone cover, cited from memory; no figure used. African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance, topic page, cited from memory; the page returned navigation only and no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M., Neglecting disaster: why don’t people insure against large losses?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5 to 21, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kousky, C. and Cooke, R., Explaining the failure to insure catastrophic risks, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 37, 206 to 227, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Froot, K.A., The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination, Journal of Financial Economics 60, 529 to 571, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Michel-Kerjan, E.O., Catastrophe economics: the National Flood Insurance Program, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(4), 165 to 186, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cummins, J.D. and Trainar, P., Securitization, insurance, and reinsurance, Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(3), 463 to 492, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ben-Shahar, O. and Logue, K.D., Outsourcing regulation: how insurance reduces moral hazard, Michigan Law Review 111(2), 197 to 248, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6

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