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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the planetary boundaries baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Pressure builds across the system
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Systemic
    3. 2.3 Climate forcing
    4. 2.4 Biodiversity
    5. 2.5 Water
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.

Figure 2.1Warming and the reef threshold (degrees C)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Current warming (about)≈1.4
Threshold, upper estimate1.5
Threshold, central estimate1.2
Threshold, lower estimate1.0

Source: Global Tipping Points Report7. Values are as published and approximate.

Implication

Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them7.

What would move it

Annual bleaching reports, the next tipping points assessment and any revision of the threshold range would each move this finding.

2.2Systemic

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001

    Seven of the nine planetary boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment, with ocean acidification newly crossed; aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone remain within their limits. The 2023 assessment counted six.231

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-011

    Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just Earth system boundaries are exceeded, and two or more are exceeded across 52% of land that holds 86% of the population.5

  3. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon. § scenario

2.3Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Global surface air temperature in 2025 was 1.47 degrees C above the 1850 to 1900 level, the third warmest year, and the 2023 to 2025 average passed 1.5 degrees C for the first time.8

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Global annual mean CO2 was 425.62 ppm in 2025, up from 422.79 ppm in 2024, against a climate boundary value of 350 ppm.103

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    UNEP projects 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100 if new national pledges are fully implemented and up to 2.8 degrees C on current policies.14

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

    The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway; the central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C (range 1.0 to 1.5) and warming is about 1.4.7

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    A reassessment of climate tipping elements puts the central thresholds for the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets at about 1.5 degrees C, with ranges of 0.8 to 3 and 1 to 3, and counts nine core and seven regional tipping elements.6

  6. ReportedEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Published studies disagree on the Atlantic overturning circulation: one estimates collapse around mid-century, one reads present reanalysis data as on route to tipping, and a 34-model study judges collapse this century unlikely.181716

2.4Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008

    By 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests are estimated to be exposed to compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions.19

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

    IPBES found around one million animal and plant species threatened with extinction, with about 75% of the land environment and about 66% of the marine environment significantly altered.15

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

    The freshwater change boundary is transgressed: blue water at 22.6% against a 12.9% limit and green water at 22.0% against a 12.4% limit.323

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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