Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Pressure builds across the system
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planetary boundaries transgressed | 7 | of 9 | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Global temperature above pre-industrial | 1.47 | degrees C | 2025 | Reported | 8 |
| Global temperature, January to August | 1.42 | degrees C | 2025 | Reported | 9 |
| Global CO2 annual mean | 425.62 | ppm | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Global CO2, WMO figure | 423.9 | ppm | 2024 | Reported | 9 |
| Climate boundary value, CO2 | 350 | ppm | framework | Reported | 3 |
| Nitrogen flow against limit | 165 against 62 | Tg N a year | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| Phosphorus flow against limit | 18.2 against 6.2 | Tg P a year | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| Aragonite saturation against limit | 2.84 against 2.86 | Ω | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| Reef central threshold estimate | 1.2 | degrees C | 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| Greenland ice sheet central threshold | ≈ 1.5 | degrees C | 2022 | Reported | 6 |
| Projected warming, current policies | up to 2.8 | degrees C | 2025 | Reported | 14 |
| Sea-level rise rate | 4.1 | mm a year | 2016 to 2025 | Reported | 9 |
| Earth energy imbalance | 0.89 | W per m² | 2005 to 2024 | Reported | 13 |
| Species threatened with extinction | ≈ 1 | million | 2019 | Reported | 15 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- SYS
- CLI
- BIO
- WAT
- FIN
- FOO
- ENE
- DAT
- AIC
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planetary Health Check 20252 | research consortium | global | 2025 | annual | boundary status |
| Earth beyond six of nine boundaries1 | journal | global | 2023 | one-off | earlier count |
| Global Climate Highlights8 | EU climate service | global | 2025 | annual | temperature |
| WMO update for COP309 | UN agency | global | 2025 | annual | warming, sea level |
| NOAA annual CO210 | national agency | global | 2025 | annual | carbon dioxide |
| Global Carbon Budget1112 | research consortium | global | 2024 to 2025 | annual | emissions and budget |
| Global Tipping Points Report7 | research consortium | global | 2025 | periodic | tipping thresholds |
| Armstrong McKay et al.6 | journal | global | 2022 | one-off | threshold ranges |
| IPBES Global Assessment15 | intergovernmental panel | global | 2019 | periodic | biodiversity |
| UNEP Emissions Gap Report14 | UN agency | global | 2025 | annual | projected warming |
B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | not bound here; regional chapter to come | carbon, forests | regional statistics (not bound) |
| South America | Amazon forest exposed to compounding disturbance | forest, water | Amazon transitions19 |
| Europe | Atlantic circulation weakening would change winters | ocean, climate | Tipping Points Report7; AMOC studies1617 |
| Eurasia | not bound here; regional chapter to come | carbon, permafrost | tipping reassessment6 |
| Middle East and North Africa | not bound here; regional chapter to come | water, heat | safe and just boundaries5 |
| Africa | monsoon systems linked to the Atlantic circulation | water, food | Tipping Points Report7 |
| South Asia | air pollution above the proposed just limit for most people | air, water | safe and just boundaries5 |
| East Asia | not bound here; regional chapter to come | carbon, ocean | Planetary Health Check2 |
| ASEAN | warm-water reefs and fisheries | ocean, food | Tipping Points Report7 |
| Oceania-Pacific | warm-water reefs and island coasts | ocean, coast | Tipping Points Report7 |
B.4Regional card: Amazon forest system
- region
- forest
- moisture recycling
- tipping
- Systems in view
- forest, water, climate, food
- Defining study
- transitions study of 202419
- Couplings
- BIO → WAT → FOO; CLI → BIO
- Capability evidence
- protection and restoration targets adopted27
- Gaps
- regional thresholds; rates of change
- Agenda items
- P-01 · P-05
The study estimates that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances [19].
FOREST
Compounding disturbance
Forest loss can weaken the recycling of moisture that produces rain; the green water boundary is transgressed globally [3] [23].
WATER
Moisture recycling
The estimate is a range and attributes no event to any actor [19] [37].
LEARNING
A range, not a date
B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Countries enter the planetary boundaries edition through the environment chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
26national
countries and unions
10regional
clusters
16global
flagship and sector
20frontier
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back