Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Pressure builds across the system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The planetary boundaries framework names nine processes that keep the Earth system stable. The 2025 Planetary Health Check finds seven of the nine transgressed, with ocean acidification the newest2. An earlier assessment found six in 2023 and noted that every boundary already exceeded had moved further past its limit1. Warming tells the same story. Copernicus puts 2025 at 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial and finds the 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C for the first time8. Global annual mean CO2 reached 425.62 ppm in 202510, against a boundary value of 350 ppm3. Tipping points move from theory to observation: the Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is now underway, with a central threshold estimate of 1.2 degrees C7. For other elements the evidence conflicts. Three studies disagree on whether the Atlantic overturning circulation is heading for collapse161718. This baseline reads these results as mechanisms and thresholds. It ranks no country, forecasts no tipping date and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the planetary boundaries baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. No: seven of nine boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment.21

    Is the Earth system inside the safe operating space?Reported

  2. Yes: 1.47 degrees C in 2025 and a three-year average above 1.5.89

    Is warming still rising?Reported

  3. For warm-water reefs, the report says the central estimate has been passed.7

    Has any tipping point been crossed?Reported

  4. No: three studies differ on the Atlantic circulation.161718

    Do all tipping studies agree?Reported

  5. To 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100, depending on pledges.14

    Where does policy point?Reported

  6. Yes: 425.62 ppm in 2025 and a record fossil emissions projection.1012

    Is carbon dioxide still rising?Reported

  7. Yes: about one million species are threatened.15

    Does life on land and sea show the same pressure?Reported

  8. Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps Atlantic and Amazon stress. SCN-SR09-CMP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.

Figure S.1Warming and the reef threshold (degrees C)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Current warming (about)≈1.4
Threshold, upper estimate1.5
Threshold, central estimate1.2
Threshold, lower estimate1.0

Source: Global Tipping Points Report7. Values are as published and approximate.

Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them7.

S.4At a glance

7of 9

boundaries transgressed2

1.47degrees C

warming above pre-industrial, 20258

425.62ppm

CO2, 202510

2.8degrees C

projected, current policies (up to)14

1.2degrees C

reef central threshold7

≈1million

species threatened15

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading the Earth system as one linked system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the signs arrive as hotter years, bleached reefs, shifting rain and thinner harvests.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Projected warming of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 and threshold risks bear on long-term asset and credit risk.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Earth-system risk is well described boundary by boundary and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the planetary boundaries and the Earth system’s tipping elements and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a ranking of countries, a forecast of any tipping event, an attribution of any single event to climate change or an assessment of any government, company or policy. Protection of the Earth system rests with states, institutions and the people who act within them.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 planetary boundaries edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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