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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Pressure builds across the system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

SYS · Boundaries

Planetary boundaries transgressed

7of 9

ocean acidification newly crossed.

Reported2025Planetary Health Check2

CLI · Temperature

Global temperature above pre-industrial

1.47degrees C

third-warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5.

Reported2025Copernicus8

CLI · Carbon dioxide

Global annual mean CO2

425.62ppm

up from 422.79 in 2024.

Reported2025NOAA10

CLI · Reefs

Central tipping estimate for warm-water reefs

1.2degrees C

range 1.0 to 1.5; warming about 1.4.

Reported2025Tipping Points Report7

BIO · Species

Species threatened with extinction

≈1million

three quarters of land significantly altered.

Reported2019IPBES15

FIN · Outlook

Projected warming, current policies (up to)

2.8degrees C

2.3 to 2.5 if new pledges are met.

Reported2025UNEP14

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through planetary boundaries, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries planetary boundaries risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATBlue and green water changes are beyond their limits; the water cycle holds about 7% more moisture per degree of warming.WAT ↔ BIOReported EQL 3
ENEFossil carbon is the main source of CO2 and acidification; fossil emissions projected at a record in 2025.ENE → CLIReported EQL 4
FOOFertiliser use pushes nitrogen and phosphorus flows past their limits; land conversion presses on forests.FOO → BIOReported EQL 3
HLTPollution and heat reach people; evidence not consolidated here.BIO → HLTInferred EQL 2
BIOThe core system: about one million species threatened; Amazon forests exposed to compounding disturbance.the core systemReported EQL 4
CLIWarming of 1.47 degrees C and CO2 of 425.62 ppm; reef threshold passed.CLI → allReported EQL 4
INFCoastal and urban assets face sea-level rise, which has nearly doubled in rate; detail sits in sibling editions.CLI → INFReported EQL 2
FINOutlook of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 shapes long-term risk; no consolidated cost series.CLI → FINReported EQL 3
DATEarth observation and monitoring series support every finding; datasets differ by a few hundredths of a degree.DAT → CLIReported EQL 3
AICModels and early warning methods carry the tipping evidence; their reliability is questioned.AIC ↔ CLIInferred EQL 2
MINExtraction drives land change and waste; evidence not consolidated here.MIN → BIOExpert input EQL 2
TRDTrade carries land and nutrient pressure across borders; detail sits in sibling editions.TRD → BIOInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on planetary boundaries, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemnine linked boundaries; seven transgressed2second boundary crossedPARTIAL
GS-01Waterblue and green water beyond limits3soil moisture and flow changePARTIAL
GS-02Energyfossil carbon drives CO2 and acidification10continued emissionsGOOD
GS-03Food and agrifoodnitrogen at 165 against a limit of 62 Tg a year3fertiliser pressurePARTIAL
GS-04Healthheat and pollution reach people5air pollution above just limitTHIN
GS-05Finance and economyoutlook of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C14repricing of long-term riskTHIN
GS-06Developmenttwo or more boundaries exceeded for 86% of people5unequal exposurePARTIAL
GS-07Climate1.47 degrees C in 20258threshold crossingGOOD
GS-08Disastercompounding disturbance in forests19concurrent hazardsTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresea-level rise rate 4.1 mm a year9coastal exposureTHIN
GS-10Citiesheat and air pollution exposure5multi-hazard exposureTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityabout one million species threatened15loss of integrityGOOD
GS-12Earth observationtemperature and CO2 series810dataset differencesGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitalmonitoring and model infrastructure30loss of data seriesTHIN
GS-14PolicyParis Agreement and biodiversity targets3127implementation gapsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencetipping science is active and contested61617early warning reliabilityPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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