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Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

7 min read0 figures1 table30 notesNR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Pressure builds across the system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR09-CLI-001

    Reef and ice-sheet thresholds near current warming

    Driver
    warming of 1.47 degrees C in 20258
    Exposure
    warm-water reefs; Greenland and West Antarctic ice76
    Vulnerability
    threshold ranges overlap current warming
    Capacity
    emission cuts; reef conservation; adaptation planning
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR09-BIO-002

    Amazon forest transition under compounding disturbance

    Driver
    drought, fire, deforestation and warming acting together19
    Exposure
    10% to 47% of forests by 205019
    Vulnerability
    overlapping disturbance; thresholds uncertain
    Capacity
    protection and restoration targets27
    Cascade
    BIO → WAT → FOO
    Horizon
    5 to 25 years

  3. InferredEQL 2RSK-SR09-CLI-003

    Atlantic circulation weakening or collapse

    Driver
    warming and freshwater input to the North Atlantic17
    Exposure
    north-west Europe, monsoon systems7
    Vulnerability
    studies disagree on the threshold and timing1618
    Capacity
    monitoring and model improvement
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FOO
    Horizon
    decades, uncertain

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR09-SYS-004

    Several boundaries transgressed together

    Driver
    seven of nine boundaries beyond limits2
    Exposure
    two or more boundaries exceeded for 86% of people5
    Vulnerability
    interactions between boundaries not quantified1
    Capacity
    policy frameworks for climate and biodiversity3127
    Cascade
    CLI ↔ BIO ↔ WAT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSParis Agreement in force; projected warming still 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C3114
Monitoring and observationADEQUATElong temperature and CO2 series from several agencies8910
Early warningLISTEDearly warning signals for tipping studied; reliability questioned1736
Preparedness and planningEXISTSadaptation planning guidance published44
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDnatural carbon sinks and remaining carbon budget tracked1113
ResponseLISTEDresponse to Earth-system thresholds not yet tested
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnot consolidated here
RecoveryDEMONSTRATEDozone layer recovery under the Montreal Protocol332
AdaptationEXISTSassessments and standards published3044
Social protectionLISTEDnot consolidated here
Finance and insuranceEXISTSdisclosure and nature-target frameworks published4142
Institutional coordinationEXISTSclimate, biodiversity and ozone treaties in force or adopted312732
Technical infrastructureEXISTSearth-system models and satellite records2429
WorkforceLISTEDnot reviewed
Research capacityADEQUATEboundary and tipping science mature and contested21253439
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 25Lenton, T.M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF001866, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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