Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Pressure builds across the system
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 planetary boundaries readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading the Earth system as one linked system. Seven of nine boundaries are beyond their limits, warming is near the threshold range for reefs and ice sheets, and studies disagree on the Atlantic circulation. Evidence is strongest for boundary status and weakest for interactions between boundaries.
SYS-001 · CLI-005 · CLI-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the signs arrive as hotter years, bleached reefs, shifting rain and thinner harvests. The baseline asks that public debate treat the Earth system as shared and linked, and keep thresholds, not only averages, in view.
CLI-002 · CLI-005 · BIO-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Projected warming of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 and threshold risks bear on long-term asset and credit risk. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
CLI-004 · CLI-006
NEXUS
Synthesis
Earth-system risk is well described boundary by boundary and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind interaction strengths, resolve the ocean circulation disagreement and test the compound pathway.
SYS-012 · P-01 · P-03
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for planetary boundaries. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | planetary chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Each boundary has its own control variable, but the processes share causes and feed one another. Reading them together shows pressure that single-topic reporting misses. This edition reads the system.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Boundaries are one system
Tipping assessments give central estimates with wide ranges, and observation now confirms one case. Ranges guide risk screening. They do not forecast a date, and studies still disagree on several elements.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Thresholds are ranges, not dates
Three studies of the Atlantic circulation reach different conclusions with different methods. The baseline reports all three and treats the disagreement as a gap to close with better records.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Disagreement is part of the evidence
Safe and just boundaries show that limits set by fairness can be stricter than limits set by stability. The burden of exceedance falls unevenly across people and regions.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Justice sets the limit as often as safety
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 planetary boundaries readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement31 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | temperature goal |
| Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework27 | Convention on Biological Diversity | global | ADOPTED 2022 | 30% conservation and restoration targets |
| Montreal Protocol32 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | ozone-depleting substances |
| Nature Restoration Regulation40 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | restoration targets |
| Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive41 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | sustainability disclosure |
| Science-based targets for nature42 | SBTN | global use | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | company targets |
| IPCC Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report30 | IPCC | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | assessment of climate science |
| Global Chemicals Outlook II43 | UNEP | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | chemicals and waste |
| Emissions Gap Report14 | UNEP | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | gap between pledges and pathways |
| Adaptation guidance44 | IPCC and ISO | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | adaptation planning |
Changed since 2024
- The Planetary Health Check 2025 added ocean acidification as a seventh transgressed boundary2
- The 2023 to 2025 average temperature passed 1.5 degrees C8
- The Emissions Gap Report 2025 lowered projected warming on new pledges to 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C14
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers planetary boundaries assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the planetary boundaries and the Earth system’s tipping elements and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- boundary assessments; tipping point reviews; peer-reviewed Earth-system studies; temperature and carbon records
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockström et al., A safe operating space for humanity26 | journal article | 2009 | framework | the framework |
| Steffen et al., Planetary boundaries24 | journal article | 2015 | framework | two-tier approach |
| Richardson et al.1 | journal article | 2023 | supports | six of nine boundaries |
| Armstrong McKay et al.6 | journal article | 2022 | supports | tipping thresholds |
| Lenton et al., Tipping elements21 | journal article | 2008 | framework | tipping element concept |
| Steffen et al., Trajectories of the Earth System20 | journal article | 2018 | framework | Hothouse Earth pathway |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planetary Health Check 20252 | Planetary Boundaries Science | 2025 | supports | seven of nine |
| Global Tipping Points Report 20257 | University of Exeter and partners | 2025 | supports | reef threshold |
| Global Assessment15 | IPBES | 2019 | supports | species and land |
| Emissions Gap Report 202514 | UNEP | 2025 | supports | projected warming |
| Synthesis Report30 | IPCC | 2023 | context | assessment baseline |
| Update for COP309 | WMO | 2025 | supports | warming and sea level |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Climate Highlights 20258 | Copernicus and ECMWF | 2025 | supports | temperature |
| Annual mean CO210 | NOAA | 2025 | supports | carbon dioxide |
| Global Carbon Budget 202411 | Global Carbon Project | 2024 | supports | budget and emissions |
| Global Carbon Budget 202512 | Global Carbon Project | 2025 | supports | record emissions projection |
| Indicators of Global Climate Change 202413 | Forster et al. | 2025 | supports | human-induced warming |
| Boundary status dashboard3 | Globaia | 2026 | supports | control variables |
| Planetary boundaries overview4 | Stockholm Resilience Centre | 2026 | context | history of counts |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement31 | United Nations | 2015 | context | temperature goal |
| Global Biodiversity Framework targets27 | Convention on Biological Diversity | 2022 | context | 30% targets |
| Montreal Protocol32 | United Nations | 1987 | context | ozone recovery |
| Ozone assessment 202229 | WMO and UNEP | 2022 | context | ozone science |
| Nature Restoration Regulation40 | European Union | 2024 | context | restoration law |
| Sustainability reporting directive41 | European Union | 2022 | context | disclosure |
| Science-based targets for nature42 | SBTN | 2020 | context | company targets |
| Economics of water28 | Global Commission | 2023 | context | water cycle |
| Chemicals outlook43 | UNEP | 2019 | context | chemicals |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Chemicals Outlook II: From Legacies to Innovative Solutions, 2019, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Steffen, W., Rockström, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper’s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back