Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the materials baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Some are: 736 structures were independently realised, a small count against 2.2 million predicted.⁵

   Are predicted materials being made?Reported

2. It reported 41 of 58 targets; critiques dispute how many are new.⁶⁸⁹

   Did a robot discover new materials?Reported

3. One synthesised structure came within 20% of its target; one result is not a trend.⁷

   Does generative design work?Reported

4. China produced most natural graphite and almost all primary gallium in 2025.¹⁷

   Who supplies the inputs?Reported

5. Benchmarks for extraction, processing, recycling and diversification by 2030.¹⁸

   What does Europe require?Reported

6. IARC assessed carbon nanotubes in 2017; coverage of other classes is not bound.²⁰

   Are nanomaterials assessed for harm?Reported

7. Not on a common basis in the sources read.¹⁹

   Is the footprint of production known?Expert input

8. Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis. SCN-XT12-VER-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and it imposed, widened and partly suspended export controls on gallium and rare earths between 2023 and 2025.

Supply of inputs for chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets depends on a few processing sites and on trade measures. The United States reported no domestic gallium production since 1987 and a net import reliance of 100%. China lifted its ban on gallium exports to the United States for one year in November 2025 and suspended its October 2025 rare earth controls for one year¹⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
7. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is materials risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry materials shocks into other systems?
• Which materials capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The materials-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their materials content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   TRD → MIN → INF

   An export restriction slows inputs for chips, magnets and electrodes.

   Reported gallium and rare earth controls¹⁷

2. 02

   INF → DAT

   Unverified predictions enter shared databases and are reused.

   Inferred critiques of discovery claims⁸⁹

3. 03

   MIN → INF

   Concentrated graphite supply constrains electrode materials.

   Reported natural graphite concentration¹⁷

4. 04

   GOV → MIN

   EU benchmarks set targets for extraction, processing and recycling.

   Reported Critical Raw Materials Act¹⁸

5. 05

   INF → HLT

   New nanomaterials reach exposure before hazard data.

   Inferred IARC assessment²⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
3. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and it imposed, widened and partly suspended export controls on gallium and rare earths between 2023 and 2025.

Implication

Supply of inputs for chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets depends on a few processing sites and on trade measures. The United States reported no domestic gallium production since 1987 and a net import reliance of 100%. China lifted its ban on gallium exports to the United States for one year in November 2025 and suspended its October 2025 rare earth controls for one year¹⁷.

What would move it

The end of the one-year suspensions in November 2026, new processing projects, and the EU benchmark progress reports would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

   A 2023 study reports 2.2 million predicted crystal structures below the known stability line, built on 48,000 known stable crystals, and 736 of the stable structures were independently realised.⁵¹⁰

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   An autonomous laboratory reports realising 41 of 58 target compounds in 17 days of continuous operation.⁶

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

   Two 2024 critiques dispute the discovery claims: one finds scant evidence for compounds that are novel, credible and useful, and the other finds that about two thirds of the laboratory successes are likely known disordered phases.⁸⁹

4. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

   A 2025 generative model reports structures more than twice as likely to be new and stable as earlier methods, with one synthesised structure within 20% of its property target; a company post states a training set of 608,000 stable materials.⁷¹¹

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

   Nature retracted a room-temperature superconductivity paper in 2022 and a second in 2023, and a 2023 Nature news report concluded that LK-99 is not a superconductor.¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶

2.3Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005

   China produced an estimated 82% of world natural graphite in 2025, and the United States had no domestic production and a net import reliance of 100%.¹⁷

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

   China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production, and its export controls on gallium and rare earths were imposed, widened and partly suspended between 2023 and 2025.¹⁷²⁴

2.4Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

   The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks of at least 10% of annual consumption from extraction, 40% from processing, 25% from recycling and no more than 65% from one third country.¹⁸⁴¹

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

   The Commission adopted a voluntary safe and sustainable by design framework for chemicals and materials on 8 December 2022 and revised it in March 2026.¹⁹³¹

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

   IARC assessed the carcinogenic hazard of carbon nanotubes, single-walled and multiwalled, for the first time in Monographs Volume 111, published in 2017.²⁰³⁹

2.6Water

1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

   A metal-organic framework device harvested 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of material per day at 20% relative humidity, and a published comment found its efficiency far below existing alternatives.¹²¹³¹

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is reliance on predicted or claimed materials before independent synthesis, while the inputs to make them come from concentrated processing. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
2. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through materials, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries materials risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on materials, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
4. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT12-VER-001

   Verification gap for predicted materials

   Driver

   predictions outpace independent synthesis⁵⁹

   Exposure

   research planning and users of shared databases

   Vulnerability

   disordered phases read as new compounds⁹

   Capacity

   independent synthesis and crystallography expertise⁸

   Cascade

   INF → DAT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT12-SUP-002

   Processing concentration and export controls

   Driver

   concentrated processing and changing trade measures¹⁷²⁴

   Exposure

   chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets

   Vulnerability

   few processing sites; no domestic production in some markets

   Capacity

   EU benchmarks; new projects in several countries¹⁷¹⁸

   Cascade

   MIN → INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT12-SAF-003

   Nanomaterial hazard ahead of evidence

   Driver

   new engineered materials in use²⁰²⁵

   Exposure

   workers, consumers and environments near production

   Vulnerability

   definitions that differ by jurisdiction²⁵²⁶

   Capacity

   hazard assessment, reporting rules and design frameworks¹⁹²⁷

   Cascade

   INF → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT12-CLM-004

   Claims outrun replication

   Driver

   high-profile claims on thin data¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶

   Exposure

   investors, agencies and public debate

   Vulnerability

   headline reach exceeds correction reach

   Capacity

   independent replication; editorial correction¹⁵¹⁶

   Cascade

   INF → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for materials at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
5. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 229 Nanotechnologies, technical committee, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT12-VER-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a claimed material enters planning while processing of its inputs stays concentrated

Analogues

the 2022 to 2023 superconductivity claims; the 2024 critiques of discovery results^9141516

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   INF → DAT

   a claimed compound enters shared databases

   2023

2. 2

   DAT → FIN

   funding and planning follow the claim

   2024

3. 3

   TRD → MIN

   demand for inputs meets export controls

   2025

4. 4

   INF → INF

   independent synthesis fails to confirm the claim

   2024

5. 5

   GOV → INF

   agencies revise verification expectations

   2026

6. 6

   FIN → INF

   funding shifts toward verification and substitution

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT12-VER-01 would travel through Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology 2026, scenario SCN-XT12-VER-01 (2026); Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for materials. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 materials readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers materials assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about advanced materials and nanotechnology as infrastructure and its couplings?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed journals; standards bodies and agencies; strategies; supply statistics and company posts

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TS 80004-1, Nanotechnologies: vocabulary, part 1, core terms, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 229 Nanotechnologies, technical committee, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
14. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jain, A. et al., Commentary: The Materials Project, a materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation, APL Materials 1, 011002, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Novoselov, K.S. et al., Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films, Science 306, 666 to 669, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Li, H., Eddaoudi, M., O’Keeffe, M. and Yaghi, O.M., Design and synthesis of an exceptionally stable and highly porous metal-organic framework, Nature 402, 276 to 279, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Iijima, S., Helical microtubules of graphitic carbon, Nature 354, 56 to 58, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brus, L.E., Electron-electron and electron-hole interactions in small semiconductor crystallites: the size dependence of the lowest excited electronic state, Journal of Chemical Physics 80, 4403 to 4409, 1984, cited from memory. Observation year 1984. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hou, X., Zaks, T., Langer, R. and Dong, Y., Lipid nanoparticles for mRNA delivery, Nature Reviews Materials 6, 1078 to 1094, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. M-01

   Which predicted materials have been independently synthesised and characterised, and what share are new?

   INI-XT12-VER-01 · verification of predicted materials; first output: verification register.

2. M-02

   How concentrated is processing, not only mining, of graphite, gallium, rare earths and other inputs, by country?

   INI-XT12-SUP-02 · supply concentration; first output: processing map.

3. M-03

   What hazard and exposure evidence exists for each class of engineered nanomaterial in use?

   INI-XT12-SAF-03 · nanosafety evidence; first output: evidence table by class.

4. M-04

   How do definitions of nanomaterial differ across jurisdictions, and what do they change in practice?

   INI-XT12-DEF-04 · definitions; first output: definition overlay.

5. M-05

   What energy and water does materials production use per unit of output?

   INI-XT12-FPR-05 · production footprint; first output: footprint estimates.

6. M-06

   Which national strategies set targets for materials supply?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: strategy overlay.

7. M-07

   What workforce exists for synthesis, characterisation and nanosafety?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. M-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real supply disruptions, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 materials portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The materials edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy and minerals, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   materials supply and nanosafety readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · XT-10 cryptography · SR-04 minerals

   GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   discovery, supply, safety, footprint, governance

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-12 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the materials candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT12-2027-01 · Claim-reliance Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
3. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Discovery, synthesis and verification

New materials are now proposed by learning models and made by robots. Evidence is strongest where independent synthesis exists, and weakest where claims rest on company posts or unreconciled results.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-02 Quantum Technologies
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Production footprint, safety and applications

Engineered nanomaterials are in medicines, devices and water technology. Hazard assessment covers a few classes, and the energy and water use of production is not bound on a common basis.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-02 Quantum Technologies
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Critical minerals, components and supply chain

Advanced materials depend on graphite, gallium, rare earths and other inputs whose production and processing are concentrated and whose trade measures changed in 2025.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-02 Quantum Technologies
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Investment and workforce are the thin parts of the evidence. What exists is public programmes and field milestones, not totals.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-02 Quantum Technologies
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Safety, regulation and governance watch

The nearest effect of nanotechnology on other systems is regulatory: definitions, registration, reporting and design frameworks. Hazard evidence and definitions differ by jurisdiction.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-02 Quantum Technologies
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hou, X., Zaks, T., Langer, R. and Dong, Y., Lipid nanoparticles for mRNA delivery, Nature Reviews Materials 6, 1078 to 1094, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
16. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Materials System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT12-MATERIALS · v0.1

Purpose

represent advanced materials and nanotechnology as a discovery system coupled to critical mineral supply, trade, safety evidence, energy, finance and workforce

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 materials annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• Merchant et al.⁵: independent syntheses since publication
• Szymanski et al.⁶: author response to the critique
• USGS¹⁷: processing capacity by country
• IARC²⁰: classification text for each nanotube type

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: net import reliance

Construct

share of apparent consumption of a commodity that is met by imports rather than by domestic production

Unit

percent of apparent consumption

Method

imports minus exports, adjusted for stock changes, divided by apparent consumption

Source

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026¹⁷

Uncertainty

trade data and stock estimates are revised in later editions

Known limits

a United States measure; says nothing about processing capacity in other countries

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart, cited from memory; the host was not reachable from the session and no figure is used. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• INF
• MIN
• TRD
• DAT
• HLT
• ENE
• WAT
• FIN
• CLI
• FOO

B.3Regional reading, materials across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of materials supply and safety in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Cluster card: graphite anode material supply chain

• supply chain
• graphite
• anode material
• single point

Systems in view

natural graphite mining, purification, spherical graphite and anode material

Defining events

US duties on Chinese anode material in 2025; Chinese export growth of spherical graphite¹⁷

Couplings

MIN → INF electrodes; TRD → MIN trade measures

Capability evidence

new spherical graphite plants reported outside China¹⁷

Gaps

processing capacity by country; stocks; recycling volumes

Agenda items

M-02 · M-05

B.5How countries appear in the materials edition

Countries enter the materials edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
7. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5
15. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
16. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
17. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
18. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
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25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
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32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart, cited from memory; the host was not reachable from the session and no figure is used. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Novoselov, K.S. et al., Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films, Science 306, 666 to 669, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Li, H., Eddaoudi, M., O’Keeffe, M. and Yaghi, O.M., Design and synthesis of an exceptionally stable and highly porous metal-organic framework, Nature 402, 276 to 279, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
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38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jain, A. et al., Commentary: The Materials Project, a materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation, APL Materials 1, 011002, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
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