Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 42 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5
  15. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
  16. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
  17. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  18. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TS 80004-1, Nanotechnologies: vocabulary, part 1, core terms, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 229 Nanotechnologies, technical committee, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart, cited from memory; the host was not reachable from the session and no figure is used. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Novoselov, K.S. et al., Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films, Science 306, 666 to 669, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Li, H., Eddaoudi, M., O’Keeffe, M. and Yaghi, O.M., Design and synthesis of an exceptionally stable and highly porous metal-organic framework, Nature 402, 276 to 279, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Iijima, S., Helical microtubules of graphitic carbon, Nature 354, 56 to 58, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jain, A. et al., Commentary: The Materials Project, a materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation, APL Materials 1, 011002, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hou, X., Zaks, T., Langer, R. and Dong, Y., Lipid nanoparticles for mRNA delivery, Nature Reviews Materials 6, 1078 to 1094, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brus, L.E., Electron-electron and electron-hole interactions in small semiconductor crystallites: the size dependence of the lowest excited electronic state, Journal of Chemical Physics 80, 4403 to 4409, 1984, cited from memory. Observation year 1984. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-12
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 materials edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-12NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-12-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-12 edition Reports Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-12 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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