South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the South Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. About 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, 78% from energy.²

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use, submitted in October 2025.³⁴

   What has South Africa committed to?Reported

3. Load-shedding energy fell 82% in a year, but fleet availability stayed near 58%.⁵

   How secure is electricity?Reported

4. 47% of wastewater systems were in a critical state in the 2025 assessment.⁸⁹

   How sound are water services?Reported

5. Supply is ample now: the 2025 harvest was well above average and 2026 is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes.⁷

   Is food supply secure?Reported

6. 459 deaths in KwaZulu-Natal in 2022 and 102 in the Eastern Cape in 2025.¹⁴¹⁵

   What do floods cost in lives?Reported

7. Headline figures from the 2025 assessment are not bound in this edition.¹³

   What is the state of biodiversity?Not bound

8. A power shortfall in a dense province with wastewater systems already in a critical state. SCN-ZAF-PWR-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater treatment systems were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.

Critical systems discharge poorly treated effluent to rivers that downstream towns, farms and ecosystems depend on. Treatment also needs reliable power, so the result links the water system to the grid. Reading the finding against provincial results matters: the critical share rose in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and fell in Limpopo and Mpumalanga⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
2. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
3. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
4. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
5. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
6. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
7. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
8. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
9. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
10. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
11. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is South Africa’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The South Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → WAT → HLT

   A supply shortfall interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to untreated water rises.

   Inferred grid and Green Drop evidence⁵⁹

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Heavy rain damages treatment works and roads.

   Reported KwaZulu-Natal 2022¹⁴

3. 03

   CLI → INF → FOO

   Flooded roads delay distribution to affected districts.

   Inferred Eastern Cape 2025¹⁵

4. 04

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Multi-year drought forces water restrictions on cities and farms.

   Reported Western Cape 2015–2017¹⁷¹⁸

5. 05

   ENE → FIN

   Tariff rises load household and municipal budgets.

   Reported tariffs up 190% since 2014⁵

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
2. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
3. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
5. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
6. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
7. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
8. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
9. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
10. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.back
11. 17F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., “Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.back
12. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
13. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back
14. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
15. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater treatment systems were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.

Implication

Critical systems discharge poorly treated effluent to rivers that downstream towns, farms and ecosystems depend on. Treatment also needs reliable power, so the result links the water system to the grid. Reading the finding against provincial results matters: the critical share rose in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and fell in Limpopo and Mpumalanga⁹.

What would move it

The next Green Drop special watch report on sewer networks and pump stations, municipal turnaround evidence, and electricity supply to treatment works would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO₂e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use.²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient.³⁴

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count.¹⁴¹⁵

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Energy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014.⁵⁶

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater systems were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.⁸⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Non-revenue water was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year.⁹¹⁰

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   The 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes.⁷

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over.¹

2.7Biodiversity

1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   The 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.¹³

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   The IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast.⁵¹²

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater systems are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
2. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
3. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
5. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
6. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
7. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
8. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
10. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
11. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
12. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
13. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
14. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
2. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
3. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
4. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
5. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
6. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
7. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
8. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
9. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
10. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ZAF-CLI-001

   Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province

   Driver

   intense rainfall and cut-off lows

   Exposure

   informal settlements, roads, river corridors

   Vulnerability

   dense low-lying housing; damaged networks

   Capacity

   disaster-management framework; warnings²⁵

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, WAT, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ZAF-WAT-002

   Wastewater and supply system failure

   Driver

   poor maintenance, power loss, flood damage

   Exposure

   rivers and towns downstream of critical systems

   Vulnerability

   47% of systems critical⁹

   Capacity

   Green and Blue Drop oversight; turnaround evidence not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → HLT, BIO, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ZAF-ENE-003

   Electricity supply shortfall

   Driver

   low fleet availability and demand peaks

   Exposure

   water works, clinics, industry, households

   Vulnerability

   availability near 58%⁵

   Capacity

   load-shedding fell 82% in a year; new capacity⁵²⁸

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-ZAF-CLI-004

   Multi-year drought and water restriction

   Driver

   successive dry seasons

   Exposure

   metropolitan supply, irrigated farming

   Vulnerability

   high urban losses; dependence on few dams

   Capacity

   demand management proven in Cape Town 2018¹⁸

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.back
2. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
3. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
4. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.back
5. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back
6. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
7. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
8. 29South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026.back
9. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
10. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a winter or summer supply shortfall of several weeks in a dense province, followed by heavy rain

Analogues

load-shedding of 2024 and 2025⁵; KwaZulu-Natal 2022¹⁴; Eastern Cape 2025¹⁵

Interventions

none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   ENE → WAT

   pumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin

   grid evidence⁵

2. 2

   WAT → HLT

   untreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease

   Green Drop evidence⁹

3. 3

   CLI → INF

   heavy rain damages roads and treatment works

   KwaZulu-Natal 2022¹⁴

4. 4

   INF → FOO

   flooded roads delay food and fuel distribution

   Eastern Cape 2025¹⁵

5. 5

   ENE → FIN

   repair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets

   tariff path⁵

6. 6

   WAT → HLT

   clinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power

   HIV population¹

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01 would travel through South Africa’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: South Africa 2026, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01 (2026); South Africa 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
2. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
3. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
4. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
5. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South Africa. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about South Africa’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
2. 42UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
3. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
4. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
5. 23Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
6. 24Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019.back
7. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.back
8. 26Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998.back
9. 22The Presidency of South Africa (ed.), South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) 2023–2027. Pretoria, 2022.back
10. 41Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
11. 40UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
12. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
13. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.back
14. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
15. 39H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
16. 45P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
17. 46J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
18. 19C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
19. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.back
20. 35World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
21. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
22. 20World Bank (ed.), South Africa Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2022.back
23. 37UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
24. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris, 2022.back
25. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
26. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
27. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
28. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
29. 47World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
30. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026.back
31. 44Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
32. 29South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026.back
33. 30National Treasury (ed.), Budget Review 2026. National Treasury, Pretoria, 2026.back
34. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back
35. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a power shortfall interrupt pumping and treatment in a dense province, and how long would services take to recover?

   INI-ZAF-ENE-01 · grid and water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.

2. A-02

   Where are wastewater systems in a critical state, and which rivers and settlements sit downstream?

   INI-ZAF-WAT-02 · wastewater and river risk; first output: system-by-system register.

3. A-03

   How much of urban supply is lost, and what does it cost in energy?

   INI-ZAF-WAT-03 · non-revenue water; first output: loss-and-energy table for five metros.

4. A-04

   How exposed are food and fertiliser supply to concurrent drought, price and logistics shocks?

   INI-ZAF-FOO-04 · food supply exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

5. A-05

   Where do flood losses fall on households, municipalities and the national budget?

   INI-ZAF-FIN-05 · flood protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

6. A-06

   How do river basins and dams perform under multi-year drought?

   INI-ZAF-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

7. A-07

   What is the condition of ecosystems that supply water, and how is it changing?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note against the 2025 assessment.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

South Africa is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in South Africa from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ZAF-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-ZAF-2027-01 · Power, wastewater and flood Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
2. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
3. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
4. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water services are the weaker link. Many wastewater systems are in a critical state, and almost half of the water put into supply is lost before it is billed.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Load-shedding has fallen sharply, but fleet availability is near 58% and fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Food supply is currently ample: the 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 forecast is 17.1 million tonnes.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, which makes continuity of care a lifeline question in every outage and flood.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

The National Biodiversity Assessment 2025 was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
2. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
3. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
4. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.back
5. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
6. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 27Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025.back
8. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.back
9. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
10. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back
11. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
12. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
13. 41Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-ZAF-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent South Africa as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for province or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

49 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-ZAF-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• DWS Green Drop report⁸, read in full for per-system scores
• DFFE draft inventory 1990–2024², when final
• CSIR and Eskom statistics⁵²⁷, second half of 2025
• SANBI assessment¹³, headline figures

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, wastewater system in a critical state

Construct

a treatment system whose Green Drop score falls below 31%

Unit

share of assessed systems

Scope

municipal wastewater treatment systems assessed in the national round

Source

DWS Green Drop results⁸⁹

Revision

reassessed in each national round

Known limits

scoring rules were read in a secondary record, not the report itself

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
2. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
3. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
4. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
5. 27Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025.back
6. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, South Africa by province

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected populations, 2026¹

B.4Atlas card, Eastern Cape

• province
• floods
• rural
• roads

Systems in view

water, roads, health and homes

Defining events

June 2025 floods, 102 deaths by the provincial count¹⁵

Couplings

CLI → INF; CLI → WAT; INF → HLT

Capability evidence

not bound

Gaps

recovery progress; wastewater condition; clinic continuity

Agenda items

A-01 · A-02

B.5South Africa system card

The card through which South Africa appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

upper-middle-income economy with a coal-dominated grid and strained water services

Population

63.5 million (2026)¹

Trade

maize exporter and wheat importer; wider trade not bound⁷

Hazard

floods with provincial death tolls¹⁴¹⁵

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
2. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
3. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
4. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
5. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
6. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
7. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
8. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
9. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.back
10. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
11. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back
12. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
13. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
15. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
16. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026.back
17. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.back
18. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.back
19. 17F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., “Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.back
20. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back
21. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
22. 23Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
23. 24Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019.back
24. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.back
25. 26Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998.back
26. 31UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.back
27. 32International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.back
28. 34United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.back
29. 43International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
30. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
31. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
3. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
5. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
11. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026. Cited in chapter 6
12. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Cited in chapter 2
13. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
14. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7
15. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7
16. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
17. 17F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., “Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018. Cited in chapter 1
18. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20World Bank (ed.), South Africa Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
22. 22The Presidency of South Africa (ed.), South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) 2023–2027. Pretoria, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
23. 23Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025. Cited in chapter 8
28. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30National Treasury (ed.), Budget Review 2026. National Treasury, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.
32. 32International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.
33. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome. Cited in chapter 8
34. 34United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.
35. 35World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
39. 39H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.
44. 44Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
46. 46J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version