Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 49 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  11. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Cited in chapter 2
  13. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  14. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7
  15. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7
  16. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  17. 17F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., “Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018. Cited in chapter 1
  18. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  20. 20World Bank (ed.), South Africa Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22The Presidency of South Africa (ed.), South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) 2023–2027. Pretoria, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  23. 23Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025. Cited in chapter 8
  28. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30National Treasury (ed.), Budget Review 2026. National Treasury, Pretoria, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.
  32. 32International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.
  33. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome. Cited in chapter 8
  34. 34United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.
  35. 35World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  39. 39H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.
  44. 44Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
South Africa Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
ZAFNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-ZAF-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. ZAF edition Reports South Africa 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; ZAF is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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