Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

3 min read0 figures1 table8 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Western heat, drought and fire year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CAN-CLI-001

    Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season

    Driver
    longer fire seasons; heat; drought
    Exposure
    communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke
    Vulnerability
    older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns
    Capacity
    interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load
    Horizon
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-CAN-WAT-002

    Multi-year drought in western Canada

    Driver
    low snowpack; heat; low summer flows
    Exposure
    Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply
    Vulnerability
    rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited systems
    Capacity
    drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD
    Horizon
    1–3 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-CAN-CLI-003

    Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors

    Driver
    extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt
    Exposure
    basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links
    Vulnerability
    older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover22
    Capacity
    flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-CAN-TRD-004

    Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains

    Driver
    tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review35
    Exposure
    autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food
    Vulnerability
    concentration of export markets12
    Capacity
    trade diversification; fiscal measures
    Cascade
    TRD → FIN → households
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTScodes, flood mapping and land-use rules vary by province and municipality
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDnational hydrometric, weather, fire-weather and Earth-observation programmes in continuous use
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDwireless public alerting in use for real events since 201836
Preparedness and planningEXISTSa national risk profile published in 202316; provincial plans
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDreserve and redundancy policies are not consolidated nationally
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDinterprovincial and international wildfire mutual aid in 202333
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSsector plans exist; tested continuity evidence is limited
RecoveryEXISTSfederal disaster financial assistance and provincial programmes
AdaptationEXISTSnational adaptation strategy adopted in 202317
Social protectionEXISTSincome-support systems in place; disaster-specific coverage uneven
Finance and insuranceEXISTSprivate cover for most perils; flood cover gap under federal study22
Institutional coordinationEXISTSfederal–provincial–territorial frameworks, tested event by event
Technical infrastructureEXISTScore public infrastructure condition varies widely by asset class34
WorkforceEXISTSemergency and health workforce pressures documented; surge depth unknown
Research capacityADEQUATEdeep national research base; translation into operations uneven
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
  2. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  3. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back
  4. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017.back
  5. 16Public Safety Canada (ed.), National Risk Profile: A national emergency preparedness and awareness tool, first public report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2023.back
  6. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  7. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023.back
  8. 34Federation of Canadian Municipalities et al. (eds.), Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2019: Monitoring the State of Canada’s Core Public Infrastructure. Ottawa, 2019.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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