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Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026
Nexus Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report
The state of Canada’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline
The record
About this edition
The first annual edition of the Canada report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of Canada’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Abstract and decision surface
Abstract
Canada enters 2027 with electricity that is largely non-emitting, an oil and gas sector that still produced 30% of national emissions in 2024, a freshwater endowment that is vast in total but thin where people live, and a hazard regime in which wildfire, hail, flood and ice storms now set the pace of losses. National emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and almost unchanged on 2023 [1]. Insured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, a year with 17 declared catastrophes [2]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Canada’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel between them, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing. It establishes where the evidence stands, what remains uncertain and what to watch.
Headline finding
Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses in Canada over 43 years; in 2025, C$1.0 billion of C$3.4 billion in societal losses was uninsured.
Implication
Where cover is thin, overland flood in high-risk areas, wildfire at the urban edge, and much public infrastructure, losses move onto household balance sheets and into public budgets through disaster assistance. A rising loss trend with a steady uninsured share means a rising absolute burden on both [3] [22].
At a glance
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Where do emissions stand?
685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005, and 227–265 Mt above the 2030 target range. [1]
REPORTED
Are disaster losses rising?
Insured severe-weather losses rose from C$14 billion (2006–2015) to C$37 billion (2016–2025); 2024 set the record at C$9.1 billion. [2] [4]
REPORTED
Who bears the losses?
Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; households, businesses and governments carry the rest. [3]
REPORTED
Which hazard couples the most systems?
Heat, drought and fire together, through hydro supply, heat and smoke health loads, crop yields and rail operations. [6] [10] [20]
INFERRED
How dependent is electricity on water?
About 60% of generation is hydro, so a multi-year drought is an energy-security risk, not only a water one. [9]
INFERRED
Where is the nature gap?
13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory conserved in 2023, against 30% by 2030. [7] [13]
REPORTED
What is the main economic shock channel?
Trade with the United States, which takes about three-quarters of goods exports; the 2026 CUSMA joint review sets the 2027 path. [12] [35]
INFERRED
What will Q1 2027 test first?
The Western Canada compound pathway: heat and drought through hydro, smoke and rail into health and food logistics. SCN-CAN-HDF-01
EXPERT INPUT
Systems dashboard
WATWater
Share of the world’s renewable freshwater
≈7%
Canada holds about a fifth of the world’s fresh surface water, but most of it flows north, away from where people live.
REPORTEDlong-run meanECCC [8]
ENEEnergy
Electricity-sector emissions
50Mt CO₂e
7.2% of the national total. Hydro’s share of generation makes drought an energy risk.
REPORTED2024NIR 2026 [1]
FOOFood
Agriculture-sector emissions
70Mt CO₂e
10% of the national total; up 1.0% on 2023 with higher fertiliser use.
REPORTED2024NIR 2026 [1]
HLTHealth
Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC)
619deaths
The deadliest weather event in Canadian history, and the reference case for heat–health–power coupling.
REPORTED2021BC Coroners [6]
BIOBiodiversity
Land in protected and conserved areas
13.7%
Against the 30% by 2030 target of the Kunming-Montreal framework; marine share 14.7%.
REPORTED2023ECCC CESI [7]
SYSCross-system
Insured catastrophe losses
9.1 · 2.4C$ bn
2024 record, then 2025. Insurance covers about 54% of societal catastrophe losses.
Place · Canada
A live context map of satellite and model layers for the territory. Context for the findings, never a value the edition asserts; where the layers cannot load, the base map and its note stay.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, framed on Canada.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Static base: the live map shows here when its map library and satellite tiles can load. Natural Earth land at 110m with the editions marked; filled marks are drafted editions, rings are editions in preparation.
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
CLIClimate forcing
National GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. [1]
Canada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still. [5]
The 2023 wildfire season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared. [10] [2]
FINFinance
ENEEnergy
WATWater
Canada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture. [8]
HLTHealth
The 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling. [6]
BIOBiodiversity
TRDTrade
About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027. [12]
SYSSystemic
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, wildfire smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada. §9.3
Part I · lead chapter
Canada’s exposure is usually described one hazard at a time: a wildfire season, a flood, a heat wave, a drought. This baseline reads the record the other way round. The events that set the loss record in 2024, the Calgary hailstorm, the floods left by the remnants of Hurricane Debby in Quebec, the Jasper wildfire and the flash floods in the Greater Toronto Area, struck different systems in the same summer, and drew on the same insurers, emergency services and public budgets [4] [29].
Insured catastrophe losses reached C$9.1 billion in 2024, then fell to C$2.4 billion in 2025. The lower total hides a busier year: seventeen catastrophes were declared, tying the second-highest count on record, and 2025 ranked first for fire catastrophes [2]. Frequency, more than any single severe event, now drives the record. Over the past decade insured severe-weather losses totalled C$37 billion, against C$14 billion in the decade before [4].
The losses are unevenly carried. Over forty-three years insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses; the remainder falls on households, businesses and governments, and the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation [3]. For flood, the federal task force on flood insurance found that the households most at risk were often the least able to find affordable cover [22].
Beneath the losses sits a forcing layer that moves faster than the global average. Canada warmed by about 1.7 °C between 1948 and 2016, roughly twice the global rate, and the North by more [5]. The 2021 heat dome killed 619 people in British Columbia, the deadliest weather event in the country’s history [6]. The 2023 fire season burned more than 15 million hectares and emptied almost all of Yellowknife [10].
These hazards do not stay in their sector. About 60% of Canada’s electricity is hydro, so a dry year is an energy event [9]. The 2021 drought and heat cut Prairie canola output by about a third and wheat by more [20]. Smoke turns a fire season into a public-health season in cities far from the flames [18], and the corridors that carry grain, potash and energy to market cross terrain that burns and floods [23].
This edition therefore treats risk as a property of the couplings between systems rather than a list of hazards. The dependency matrix, the risk objects, the capability ladder and the compound scenario that follow all ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?
Oil and gas and transport together account for more than half of national emissions (52%). Electricity, already largely non-emitting, is the smallest of the named sectors; buildings, heavy industry and waste make up most of the remainder [1].
Dependency network
The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
Select a system
Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONGhydro supply | STRONGirrigation · rain-fed yield | MODERATEdrinking water | STRONGflows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATEpumping · treatment | · | STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONGfacility power · cooling | MODERATEreservoirs · land use |
| FOO Food | MODERATEwithdrawals · nutrients | WEAKbiofuel feedstock | · | STRONGnutrition · food safety | STRONGland conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAKworkforce | WEAKworkforce | MODERATElabour · disease | · | WEAKresidues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONGregulation · filtration | MODERATEfire on lines · biomass | STRONGpollination · soils | MODERATEzoonoses · smoke | · |
Transmission paths
Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong
A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.
Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the baseline evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress. | WAT → ENE hydro · WAT → FOO irrigation | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| ENE | Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years. | ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → FOO inputs | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| FOO | A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought. | FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| HLT | Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; One Health signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024. | HLT ← CLI, ENE, BIO | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| BIO | Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target. | BIO → WAT regulation · BIO ← fire | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| CLI | Warming at about twice the global rate; fire, heat, flood and ice storms set the loss record. | forcing on all five systems | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| INF | Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits. | INF → TRD, FOO, ENE | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| FIN | Insured losses rising; about 46% of societal losses uninsured; climate-risk supervision in place for federally regulated institutions. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → households, provinces | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| DAT | Digital and data dependencies of the five systems are not yet mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, HLT, FIN | EXPERT INPUTEQL 2 |
| AIC | Compute and data-centre growth adds new electricity and water demand; national figures are not yet consolidated. | AIC → ENE, WAT | EXPERT INPUTEQL 2 |
| MIN | 34 critical minerals listed; processing and refining capacity is the binding constraint. | MIN → ENE transition · MIN ← TRD | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| TRD | About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States; the 2025 tariffs and the 2026 review set the channel. | TRD → all sectors | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | coupled losses across perils; frequency rising | compound heat–drought–fire years | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | large endowment, uneven access; long-term advisories persist on some First Nations systems [28] | Prairie and southern BC drought | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | about 60% hydro and 83% non-emitting power [9] | dry years; peak demand in heat and cold | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food and agrifood | grain, oilseed and potash exporter [30] | drought yield shocks; rail and port continuity | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | spending at 12.4% of GDP in 2024 [21] | heat, smoke and zoonotic spillover [27] | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | insured losses rising; about 54% of losses covered [3] | flood and wildfire insurability | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | service gaps in remote and northern communities | fuel, food and water supply to remote areas | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | warming at about twice the global rate [5] | fire weather, heat, extreme rainfall | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | 17 catastrophes declared in 2025 [2] | concurrent events straining response | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | long, thin trade corridors [23] | flood and fire on rail and road links | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | growth concentrated in a few metropolitan regions [32] | pluvial flooding; heat in dense neighbourhoods | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine areas conserved [7] | fire, habitat loss, invasive species | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | established national EO and monitoring programmes | data continuity and integration | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | concentration in networks and cloud | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy and institutions | national adaptation strategy adopted in 2023 [17] | coordination across jurisdictions | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science and engineering | deep research base | translation into operations | THIN |
Risk portfolio
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.
Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline, from a policy listing to performance in real events.
Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Scenario · SCN-CAN-HDF-01
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Assumptions
Cascade, step by step
How the shock in scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01 would travel through Canada's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
Low snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow. Analogue or source: 2023 low water. Edition CAN, scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01, step 1
The cascade of scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.
Sources: Canada 2026, scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01 (2026); Canada 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Three lenses
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Canadian risk. Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils; electricity, food and health share a dependence on water and heat. The evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for digital and cross-system dependencies.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
For most Canadians risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a flooded basement or a higher premium. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, so that public debate is about the couplings, and about who carries the uninsured share.
HLT-008 · CLI-010 · FIN-003
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. A persistent protection gap, climate-risk supervision for federally regulated institutions [25] and scenario practice already piloted with the central bank [24] show where finance-readiness evidence will be needed. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · TRD-011
NEXUS
Canada’s baseline is strong in observation and thin in tested cross-system capability. The 2027 programme should build the dependency graph first, test the western compound pathway, and measure the protection gap where it lands.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-03
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading
2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
How would a multi-year drought combined with peak-electricity constraints affect agriculture, municipal water and food logistics in Western Canada?
How much health-system surge capacity remains during concurrent heat and wildfire smoke in large western and central cities?
How large is the protection gap by peril and province, and where does the uninsured share land?
Through which sectors and provinces would a change in North American trade terms travel fastest?
What is the condition of ecosystems outside protected areas, and how fast is it changing?
Where do rail, port and grid assets share failure modes on the western gateway?
How exposed are northern and remote communities to permafrost thaw and to fuel and food supply disruption?
Which capabilities on the ladder have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives, one project and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-CAN-WAT-01 | Western Canada drought–energy–rail dependency model | Initiative | A-01 · A-06 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CAN-HLT-02 | Heat and smoke surge readiness | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CAN-FIN-03 | Protection gap and fiscal exposure baseline | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CAN-TRD-04 | Trade-shock transmission model | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CAN-BIO-05 | Ecosystem condition beyond protected areas | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| PRJ-CAN-WAT-01a | Three-basin data cut and dependency graph | Project | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-CAN-2027-01 | Compound drought–energy–rail Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | CANDIDATE |
The pathway
Nexus Canada is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Canada from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
National Model
the country as a system of systems
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
Nexus Foundry
continuous computational environment
Nexus Reports
quarterly and annual publication
Nexus Universe
annual proving environment
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
System chapter
Canada’s water system is defined by abundance in total and scarcity where people, farms and power plants are. The binding stresses at baseline are drought in the West, flood in cities and corridors, and service gaps in remote communities.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply and storage | large but seasonal; snowpack and glaciers drive western summer flows | [8] [5] | REPORTED |
| Drought | recurrent on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia; 2021 is the reference year | [20] | REPORTED |
| Flood | urban pluvial and riverine flooding is a leading driver of insured and uninsured losses | [4] [22] | INFERRED |
| Service access | long-term drinking-water advisories persist on some First Nations systems | [28] | REPORTED |
| Energy link | hydro dominance makes low water an electricity event | [9] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
A low-emitting electricity system sits beside an emissions-intensive oil and gas sector. Hydro dominance makes water the key energy risk, while heat and cold set peak demand.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generation mix | about 60% hydro, with nuclear concentrated in Ontario | [9] | REPORTED |
| Emissions | oil and gas the largest emitting sector; methane at a record low | [1] | REPORTED |
| Reliability | peak demand in heat and cold; interties and trade balance provinces | [15] | INFERRED |
| Dry-year exposure | lower hydro output raises imports and cuts exports | [9] | INFERRED |
| Transition | electrification raises demand; long-run projections in Canada’s Energy Future | [15] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Canada is a major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash, and its yields swing with Prairie weather. Food security at home depends on access and affordability as much as on production.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | grains, oilseeds and pulses on the Prairies; diverse production in the East | [20] | REPORTED |
| Drought sensitivity | 2021 heat and drought cut canola by about a third, and wheat by more | [20] | REPORTED |
| Inputs | fertiliser, fuel and potash; Canada is a leading potash producer | [30] | REPORTED |
| Logistics | export grain moves by rail to west-coast and Great Lakes ports | [23] | INFERRED |
| Access | household food access and affordability not yet bound at baseline | , | EXPERT INPUT |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Health is an active system, not only an outcome. Heat, smoke and zoonotic spillover now load it each season; spending is high, and surge depth is not documented.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spending | total health spending at 12.4% of GDP in 2024 | [21] | REPORTED |
| Heat | the 2021 heat dome is the deadliest weather event in Canadian history | [6] | REPORTED |
| Smoke | fire seasons bring weeks of smoke to distant cities | [18] [40] | REPORTED |
| One Health | H5N1 in poultry and wild birds; a domestic human case in 2024 | [27] | REPORTED |
| Surge capacity | not documented nationally at public-safe resolution | , | EXPERT INPUT |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Canada holds vast forest, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Conservation stands at about half of the 2030 target, and fire is now the fastest-changing pressure.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extent | about 9% of the world’s forests; extensive wetlands and peatlands | [31] | REPORTED |
| Conservation | 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine areas, against 30% by 2030 | [7] [13] | REPORTED |
| Fire | record 2023 season; seasons starting earlier and lasting longer | [10] [40] | REPORTED |
| Condition | ecosystem condition outside protected areas not yet bound | , | EXPERT INPUT |
| Services | water regulation, pollination and carbon storage | [44] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
Process
Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute
Open science
Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.
Search the open indexes for Canada; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.
| Format | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web editionHTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print editionPDF | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Indicator dataCSV · JSON | On this site | 20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| FiguresSVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-* |
| SlidesPDF | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | |
| Evidence briefHTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOIDataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
Cite it
Indicator data
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National GHG emissions | 685 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Change since 2005 | −10.3 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Oil and gas emissions | 208 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Transport emissions | 151 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Agriculture emissions | 70 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Electricity emissions | 50 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Methane emissions | 105 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Emissions per person | 16.6 | t CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [38] |
| Insured catastrophe losses | 9.1 | C$ billion | 2024 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Insured catastrophe losses | 2.4 | C$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Uninsured catastrophe losses | 1.0 | C$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [3] |
| Catastrophes declared | 17 | events | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Insured severe-weather losses | 37 | C$ billion | 2016–2025 | REPORTED | [4] |
| Warming since 1948 | 1.7 | °C | 1948–2016 | REPORTED | [5] |
| Heat-related deaths, BC | 619 | deaths | 2021 | REPORTED | [6] |
| Conserved land | 13.7 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Conserved marine areas | 14.7 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Population | 41.5 | million | 2025 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Health spending | 12.4 | % of GDP | 2024 | REPORTED | [21] |
| Critical minerals listed | 34 | minerals | 2024 | REPORTED | [14] |
Six pillars
Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Corrections log
A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAN | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
References · NR-CIT-1
Publication record
Publication
Publisher
Colophon
Release path for this version
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline | Q1 2027 |