Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables6 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Gap to the 2030 target	685 − (0.55 to 0.60) × 763 Mt	227–265 Mt
(2)	Uninsured share of societal losses	1 − 0.54	≈ 46%
(3)	Decade growth of insured losses	37 ÷ 14	≈ 2.6×
(4)	Share of oil and gas plus transport	(208 + 151) ÷ 685	≈ 52%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-CAN-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Canada as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for provincial or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 48 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-CAN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
National GHG emissions	2024	Apr 2026	annual	Apr 2027
Insured catastrophe losses	2025	Jan 2026	annual	Jan 2027
Societal catastrophe losses	2025	2026	annual	2027
Population	Q1 2025	2025	quarterly	quarterly
Conserved land and marine areas	2023	2024	annual	next update
Warming since 1948	1948–2016	2019	periodic	next national assessment
Heat-related deaths, 2021	2021	2022	one-off	,
Prairie crop production	2021	Dec 2021	annual	annual
Health spending share of GDP	2024	2024	annual	annual
World potash share	2024	2025	annual	annual

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	regional downscaling for 2027 hazards
Energy	GOOD	monthly hydro storage and imports
Finance	GOOD	provincial and peril splits
Food	PARTIAL	post-2021 drought impacts by region
Water	PARTIAL	groundwater and basin stress
Health	PARTIAL	surge capacity under heat and smoke
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	ecosystem condition outside protected areas
Digital and cyber	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada under the UNFCCC. National and provincial coverage, 1990–2024, compiled each April with IPCC methods. Each edition revises earlier years: the 2026 edition raised 2005 by 4.3 Mt and lowered 2023 by 7.0 Mt. Role: binds findings CLI-001 and ENE-004.

EVD-CAN-001

National Inventory Report 1990–2024¹

Issued by CatIQ, Canada’s insured-loss and exposure index provider. National coverage of declared catastrophe events, with insured-loss estimates revised after each event. Role: binds FIN-002, and with ICLR societal estimates [3] binds FIN-003.

EVD-CAN-002

Catastrophe loss index and annual summary²

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-CAN-001	EVD-CAN-002
Completeness	all sectors and gases	declared catastrophes only
Timeliness	about 16 months after the year	weeks to months after events
Revision	annual back-revision	event estimates revised
Method transparency	published methodology annexes	summary method published
External validation	UNFCCC expert review	industry use; no public audit

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

ICLR societal loss estimates³, method for uninsured losses
Conserved areas indicator⁷, coverage and counting rules
Field crop production²⁰, provincial yield series
Health expenditure trends²¹, forecast and actual

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on five sites	Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CatIQ	Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc.
CESI	Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators
CIFFC	Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre
CIHI	Canadian Institute for Health Information
CSSB	Canadian Sustainability Standards Board
CUSMA	Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement
ECCC	Environment and Climate Change Canada
IBC	Insurance Bureau of Canada
ICLR	Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
NIR	National Inventory Report
NRCan	Natural Resources Canada
OSFI	Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions
PHAC	Public Health Agency of Canada

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-CAN-HDF-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Provincial notes	atlas cards for every province and territory	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, national GHG emissions

Construct: annual anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions
Unit: Mt CO₂e, 100-year global warming potentials
Scope: excludes land use, land-use change and forestry
Source: National Inventory Report 2026¹
Revision: back-revised each April edition
Known limits: about 16 months’ lag at release

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report