Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Infrastructure
    9. 2.9 Governance
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.

Figure 2.1Properties at flood risk in England (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Today6.3
By 2050 (projection)≈8

Source: Environment Agency, NaFRA2 20248.

Implication

Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 203921, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question820.

What would move it

Flood warnings in the 2026–27 winter, the Flood Re transition, and updated assessments for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990.1

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022.2829

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power.18

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

    About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022.11

2.5Water

  1. ScenarioEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action.9

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050.8

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023.10

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

    The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.14

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

    Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain.15

2.8Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

    A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in critical infrastructure.19

2.9Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

    The third UK climate risk assessment identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks.47

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water shortage and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
  2. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
  3. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
  4. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
  5. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
  6. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
  7. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
  8. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
  9. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
  10. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
  11. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
  12. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
  13. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
  14. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
  15. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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