- United Kingdom 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024118. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and temperatures reached 40.3 °C on 19 July 20222829; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England that summer11. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially rising to around 8 million by 20508, and England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action9. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes14, and studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 197015. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990.1
Where do emissions stand?Reported
2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022.2829
Is the climate already changing?Reported
Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.1112
Who is most exposed to heat?Reported
About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.8
How large is flood exposure?Reported
England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.9
Is water supply secure?Scenario
The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.14
How dependent is food on imports?Reported
Species abundance down 19% on average since 1970.15
How is nature faring?Reported
A hot, dry summer loading health, water, rail and power at once. SCN-GBR-HDS-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006
About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Today | 6.3 | |
| By 2050 (projection) | ≈8 |
Source: Environment Agency, NaFRA2 20248.
Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 203921, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question820.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Weather claims are high, flood cover rests on a transitional scheme until 2039, and the clean-power transition needs grid investment.
NEXUS
Synthesis
The UK has cut emissions fast and observes its risks well, but adaptation lags.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of the United Kingdom’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any department, devolved government, regulator or company. Competent authorities across the four nations keep every mandate they hold.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
- 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
- 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
- 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
- 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
- 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
- 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
- 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
- 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
- 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
- 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.back
- 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
- 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back