Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026

Nexus Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report

United Kingdom 2026

The state of the United Kingdom’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline

Findings
12
each with its status and source
Sources
40
NR-CIT-1
Evidence close
30 September 2026
NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1
Status
Draft
in stewardship review

The record

The edition, its identifiers and its stewards.

NEXUS REPORTS GBR Countries and unions United Kingdom Baseline Edition 2026 The state of the United Kingdom’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
Evidence cut
NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1
Evidence close
30 September 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit
Licence
CC BY 4.0 for Nexus material
  • Baseline Edition 2026
  • Edition 2026–2030
  • Public-safe edition
  • ◌ Draft in stewardship review
  1. TThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)Publisher of record · technical truth · US / Canada
  2. MThe Global Risk Forum (GRF)Public meaning · legitimacy · Switzerland
  3. FThe Global Risk Alliance (GRA)Capital meaning · finance readiness · United States

About this edition

What this edition is, and is not.

The first annual edition of the United Kingdom report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of the United Kingdom’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any department, devolved government, regulator or company. Competent authorities across the four nations keep every mandate they hold.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Abstract and decision surface

The edition on one page.

Abstract

The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024 [1] [18]. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and temperatures reached 40.3 °C on 19 July 2022 [28] [29]; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England that summer [11]. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050 [8], and England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action [9]. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes [14], and studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970 [15]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

  • systemic risk
  • WEFH+B nexus
  • United Kingdom
  • baseline 2026
  • heat
  • flooding
  • water security

Headline finding

About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.

Headline figureProperties at flood risk in England (million)
Today6.3By 2050 (projection)≈8

Source: Environment Agency, NaFRA2 2024 [8].

Implication

Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 2039 [21], affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question [8] [20].

At a glance

Six readings and the questions this edition answers.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

68.3millionpopulation, mid-2023 [13]
373Mt CO₂eemissions, 2024 [1]
10.03°Cmean temperature, 2022 record [29]
≈60%of food produced domestically [14]
89risksin the National Risk Register [7]
61risks and opportunitiesin CCRA3 [4]
  1. Where do emissions stand?

    373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990. [1]

    REPORTED

  2. Is the climate already changing?

    2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022. [28] [29]

    REPORTED

  3. Who is most exposed to heat?

    Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022. [11] [12]

    REPORTED

  4. How large is flood exposure?

    About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050. [8]

    REPORTED

  5. Is water supply secure?

    England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action. [9]

    SCENARIO

  6. How dependent is food on imports?

    The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. [14]

    REPORTED

  7. How is nature faring?

    Species abundance down 19% on average since 1970. [15]

    REPORTED

  8. What will Q1 2027 test first?

    A hot, dry summer loading health, water, rail and power at once. SCN-GBR-HDS-01

    EXPERT INPUT

Systems dashboard

Where each system stood at evidence close.

WATWater

Projected public water-supply shortfall, England

≈5bn litres/day

by 2055 without new supply and demand action.

SCENARIO2055Environment Agency [9]

ENEEnergy

Territorial emissions

373Mt CO₂e

53% below 1990; the last coal plant closed in September 2024.

REPORTED2024DESNZ [1]

FOOFood

Share of food consumed that is produced domestically

≈60%

the rest is imported, mainly from the EU.

REPORTED2023DEFRA [14]

HLTHealth

Heat-associated deaths, England

2,985deaths

in summer 2022, the year temperatures first reached 40 °C.

REPORTED2022UKHSA [11]

BIOBiodiversity

Average change in abundance of studied species

−19%

since 1970; one in six species at risk of extinction in Great Britain.

REPORTED1970–2021State of Nature [15]

SYSCross-system

Properties at flood risk, England

6.3million

about one in four; potentially 8 million by 2050.

REPORTED2024Environment Agency [8]

Place · The United Kingdom and Ireland

Where this edition's evidence sits.

A live context map of satellite and model layers for the territory. Context for the findings, never a value the edition asserts; where the layers cannot load, the base map and its note stay.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, framed on the United Kingdom and Ireland.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

Static base: the live map shows here when its map library and satellite tiles can load. Natural Earth land at 110m with the editions marked; filled marks are drafted editions, rings are editions in preparation.

Key findings

12 findings, grouped by system, never ranked.

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

StatusREPORTEDSCENARIOEXPERT INPUT

CLIClimate forcing

  1. Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990. [1]

  2. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022. [28] [29]

ENEEnergy

  1. The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power. [18]

HLTHealth

  1. About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022. [11]

WATWater

  1. England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action. [9]

  2. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050. [8]

  3. Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023. [10]

FOOFood

  1. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. [14]

BIOBiodiversity

  1. Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain. [15]

INFInfrastructure

  1. A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in critical infrastructure. [19]

GOVGovernance

  1. The third UK climate risk assessment identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks. [4] [7]

SYSSystemic

  1. The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water shortage and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. §9.3

Part I · lead chapter

Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

The United Kingdom’s climate risks are usually discussed one at a time: a heatwave, a flood, a drought, a storm. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. On 19 July 2022 temperatures reached 40.3 °C for the first time [28]; the same summer brought drought, hosepipe bans, grassland fires and rail speed restrictions, and about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England [11].

The forcing is already measurable. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C [29], and the third climate risk assessment identified 61 risks and opportunities from climate change, eight of them priorities for action [4] [5]. The Climate Change Committee has repeatedly found adaptation planning behind the pace of risk [6].

Water sits at the centre of the coupling. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050 [8], while England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action [9]. Storm overflows spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023 [10], linking heavy rain to river quality and health.

The energy system has changed fastest. Territorial emissions fell to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990, and the last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024 [1] [18]. The Clean Power 2030 plan sets out a largely clean electricity system by the end of the decade [16] [17]. Electrification makes the grid more central, and its single points of failure more consequential, as the substation fire that closed Heathrow in March 2025 showed [19].

Food and nature carry slower but deeper exposures. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes, so import and energy-price shocks pass quickly to households [14]. Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970, and one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain [15], weakening the ecosystems that regulate floods and water quality.

This edition therefore treats British risk as a property of couplings, between heat, water, grids, food and nature, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.

FIG. 1.3 · FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-01-003How far have UK emissions fallen? Territorial emissions (Mt CO₂e)
199079020233842024373

Emissions have more than halved since 1990, driven by the power sector. Transport is now the largest emitting sector, about 30% of the total [1].

−53%since 1990 [1]
−3%2024 against 2023 [1]
2024Septlast coal power station closed [18]
2030targetclean power plan [16]

Dependency network

Twenty couplings between five systems.

The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Select a system

Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

From (row) to (column) · ◆ ESTIMATED
WATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATEcooling · hydro in ScotlandSTRONGirrigation · rain-fed yieldMODERATEdrinking waterSTRONGflows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATEpumping · treatment·STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chainSTRONGfacility power · coolingMODERATEreservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATEwithdrawals · nutrientsWEAKbiofuel feedstock·STRONGnutrition · food safetySTRONGland conversion
HLT HealthWEAKworkforceWEAKworkforceMODERATElabour · disease·WEAKresidues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONGregulation · filtrationMODERATEfire on lines · biomassSTRONGpollination · soilsMODERATEzoonoses · smoke·

Transmission paths

  1. CLI → WAT → HLTheat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaksREPORTED summer 2022 [11]
  2. ENE → INF → DATa single substation failure halts an airport and dependent servicesREPORTED Heathrow, March 2025 [19]
  3. CLI → WAT → FINsurface-water flooding lands on households with costly coverINFERRED NaFRA2 [8]
  4. ENE → FOOenergy and import prices pass into food pricesINFERRED 2022 price shock [14]
  5. WAT → BIOstorm overflows and low flows degrade riversREPORTED 2023 spills [10]

Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong

  1. WAT ⇄ BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlands. Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration.ESTIMATED in 10 of 10 drafted editions
  2. FOO ⇄ BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversion. Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils.ESTIMATED in 10 of 10 drafted editions

A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Domain posture

Each domain read in words, not scored.

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATFlood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain.WAT → HLT · WAT → INFREPORTEDEQL 4
ENECoal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies.ENE → HLT · ENE → DATREPORTEDEQL 4
FOOAbout 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices.FOO ← ENE, TRDREPORTEDEQL 4
HLTHeat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care.HLT ← CLI, ENEREPORTEDEQL 4
BIOSpecies abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented.BIO → WAT regulationREPORTEDEQL 4
CLIFirst year above 10 °C in 2022; 40.3 °C recorded.forcing on all five systemsREPORTEDEQL 5
INFLifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025.INF → ENE, DAT, TRDREPORTEDEQL 3
FINWeather claims high; flood cover supported by Flood Re until 2039.FIN ← CLI · FIN → householdsREPORTEDEQL 3
DATData centres designated Critical National Infrastructure in 2024.DAT ← ENE · DAT → FINREPORTEDEQL 3
AICCompute growth adds load to grid connections.AIC → ENEINFERREDEQL 2
MINCritical minerals strategy in place; import reliance high.MIN → ENE transitionINFERREDEQL 2
TRDFood and energy import dependence passes price shocks to households.TRD → FOO, ENEINFERREDEQL 3

Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-system89 national risks; 61 climate risks and opportunities [4] [7]compound hot, dry summersGOOD
GS-01Waterflood exposure and supply shortfall [8] [9]drought and surface-water floodingGOOD
GS-02Energycoal ended; clean power 2030 [16] [18]single points of failureGOOD
GS-03Foodabout 60% domestic production [14]import price shocksGOOD
GS-04Healthheat deaths [11] [12]heat surge in NHS and carePARTIAL
GS-05Financeweather claims; Flood Re to 2039 [20] [21]flood cover affordabilityPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentregional inequalities in exposurecost-of-living pressureTHIN
GS-07Climatefirst year above 10 °C [29]heat and extreme rainfallGOOD
GS-08Disasterresilience framework in place [27]concurrent eventsPARTIAL
GS-09InfrastructureHeathrow outage, 2025 [19]lifeline interdependencePARTIAL
GS-10CitiesLondon heat and surface waterurban heat; drainagePARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityabundance −19% since 1970 [15]habitat loss; water qualityGOOD
GS-12Earth observationstrong national monitoringdata integrationPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldata centres designated CNI [22]outages and attacksPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyClimate Change Act; Environment Act; 2025 water law [24] [25] [26]implementationGOOD
GS-15Sciencedeep research basetranslation into operationsTHIN

Risk portfolio

Risk objects, read across the chain.

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

REPORTEDEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-001

Extreme heat

Driver
heatwaves above 35–40 °C
Exposure
older people; care homes; dense cities
Vulnerability
housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
Capacity
heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
Cascade
CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
Horizon
seasonal

REPORTEDEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-002

Surface-water and river flooding

Driver
extreme rainfall; storm sequences
Exposure
6.3 million properties in England [8]
Vulnerability
urban drainage capacity; cover affordability
Capacity
flood warnings; defences; Flood Re [21]
Cascade
WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
Horizon
annual

SCENARIOEQL 3RSK-GBR-WAT-003

Drought and water-supply shortfall

Driver
dry summers; population growth
Exposure
South and East of England
Vulnerability
leakage; limited storage
Capacity
new reservoirs; transfers; demand management [9]
Cascade
WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
Horizon
5–30 years

REPORTEDEQL 3RSK-GBR-INF-004

Single points of failure in lifelines

Driver
fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
Exposure
airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
Vulnerability
limited redundancy at key substations [19]
Capacity
resilience framework [27]; backup supply
Cascade
ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
Horizon
any time

Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness.

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

  1. Prevention and mitigationEXISTSplanning rules and flood defences; adaptation behind risk [6]
  2. Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDMet Office and agency monitoring in continuous use
  3. Early warningDEMONSTRATEDweather, flood and heat-health alerts in real events
  4. Preparedness and planningEXISTSNational Risk Register [7]; Resilience Framework [27]
  5. Redundancy and reservesEXISTSgrid and water redundancy uneven; single points of failure [19]
  6. ResponseDEMONSTRATEDemergency response to storms, floods and heat
  7. Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSdata centres designated CNI [22]; continuity tested event by event
  8. RecoveryEXISTSrecovery schemes after major floods
  9. AdaptationEXISTSnational adaptation programme; CCC finds gaps [6]
  10. Social protectionEXISTSwelfare and cost-of-living support
  11. Finance and insuranceEXISTSflood cover via Flood Re until 2039 [21]
  12. Institutional coordinationEXISTSUK and devolved resilience structures
  13. Technical infrastructureEXISTSageing water and drainage networks
  14. WorkforceEXISTShealth and care workforce pressures documented
  15. Research capacityADEQUATEstrong climate and environmental science

Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Scenario · SCN-GBR-HDS-01

Hot, dry summer in southern England

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

Assumptions

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a dry winter and spring; a heatwave above 38 °C in July; grassland fires on the urban edge
Analogues
summer 2022 [11] [28]; 1976 drought
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

Cascade, step by step

  1. 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels2022
  2. 2CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency demand rise2022 [11]
  3. 3CLI → BIOgrassland and heath fires near cities2022
  4. 4CLI → INFrail speed restrictions and track failures2022
  5. 5WAT → HLThosepipe bans; river quality falls2022
  6. 6ENE → HLTcooling demand meets constrained networks,

Hot, dry summer in southern England

How the shock in scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 would travel through United Kingdom's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Hot, dry summer in southern EnglandHow the shock in scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 would travel through United Kingdom's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Low rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels. Analogue or source: 2022. Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 1

The cascade of scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.

Sources: United Kingdom 2026, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 (2026); United Kingdom 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward.

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water shortage are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.

CLI-001 · WAT-006 · INF-010 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that debate weigh who carries the costs of flooding as cover changes.

HLT-004 · WAT-006 · WAT-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Weather claims are high, flood cover rests on a transitional scheme until 2039 [21], and the clean-power transition needs grid investment [16]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

WAT-006 · ENE-002

NEXUS

Nexus Synthesis

The UK has cut emissions fast and observes its risks well, but adaptation lags. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry summer pathway, map lifeline single points of failure, and measure flood cover where it lands.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-03

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading

Model card, National Model v0

Model ID
MDL-GBR-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose
represent the United Kingdom as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family
graph-based system of systems
Inputs
the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method
expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation
none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty
qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity
national scale; not for nation, region or asset-level use
Reproducibility
strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplingstyped in v0
9strongdocumented within one season
7moderatedocumented, buffered
4weakplausible, undocumented

2027 agenda

The questions the operational series will answer.

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

  1. A-01

    How would a hot, dry summer load health services, water supply, rail and power in southern England at the same time?

    INI-GBR-HDS-01 · hot, dry summer · first output: dependency graph for three regions

  2. A-02

    Where does surface-water flood risk fall on households, and how will cover change as Flood Re transitions by 2039?

    INI-GBR-FLD-02 · flood exposure and cover · first output: exposure–cover table by region

  3. A-03

    Which substations, data centres and lifeline nodes are single points of failure for other critical services?

    INI-GBR-INF-03 · lifeline interdependence · first output: public-safe interdependence schematic

  4. A-04

    How would a shock to imported food and energy pass into household prices and food security?

    INI-GBR-FOO-04 · import price transmission · first output: transmission model

  5. A-05

    What surge capacity do the NHS and social care have for a 40 °C heatwave?

    INI-GBR-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness · first output: surge baseline for five regions

  6. A-06

    How do storm overflows, drought and heat combine to degrade river water quality?

    with GS-01 Water · first output: basin note

  7. A-07

    Which coastal communities face combined erosion, sea-level rise and storm surge?

    to be admitted in Q1 2027 · first output: scoping note

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    national capability register · first output: rung evidence for 15 functions

Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GBR-HDS-01Hot, dry summer dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-GBR-FLD-02Flood exposure and coverInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-GBR-INF-03Lifeline interdependence and single points of failureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-GBR-FOO-04Import price transmissionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-GBR-HLT-05Heat surge readinessInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-GBR-2027-01Hot, dry summer Universe missionMissionA-01CANDIDATE

The pathway

Nexus United Kingdom is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across all four nations. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. Nexus Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-GBR-2027-Q1

  6. Nexus Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. Nexus Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

System chapter

Water, the baseline system chapter

Britain has too much water in winter and too little in summer. Flood exposure is rising while the South and East face a projected supply shortfall.

6.3millionproperties at flood risk, England [8]
≈5bn litres/dayshortfall by 2055 [9]
>460kspillsstorm overflows, 2023 [10]

State at baseline

ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Flood exposureabout one in four properties in England[8]REPORTED
Supplyshortfall projected by 2055 without action[9]SCENARIO
Qualitystorm overflow spills; river condition[10]REPORTED
Governancewater-sector reform law in 2025[26]REPORTED

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and river quality
  • WAT → INF flooding of networks
  • WAT → FIN uninsured flood losses

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin stress in the South and East
  • flood exposure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

System chapter

Energy, the baseline system chapter

The power system has changed fastest of all: coal ended in 2024 and clean power is planned for 2030. Electrification makes the grid the backbone of other systems.

373Mt CO₂eemissions, 2024 [1]
2024Septlast coal power station closed [18]
2030targetclean power plan [16]

State at baseline

ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissions373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990[1]REPORTED
Coallast coal power station closed in September 2024[18]REPORTED
Clean poweraction plan for 2030 published[16] [17]REPORTED
Single points of failuresubstation fire closed Heathrow in 2025[19]REPORTED

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → HLT power for care and cooling
  • ENE → DAT data centres
  • ENE → INF transport and airports

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • substation and network redundancy
  • data-centre connection demand
  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

System chapter

Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. Import and energy prices pass quickly to households, and drought and heat cut domestic yields.

≈60%of food produced domestically [14]
≈40%imported (derived) [14]
2022shockenergy and food price rise

State at baseline

ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Self-supplyaround 60% of food consumed[14]REPORTED
Importsmainly from Europe[14]REPORTED
Climatedrought and heat cut yields[4]REPORTED
Pricesenergy costs pass into food prices[14]INFERRED

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → FOO inputs and prices
  • WAT → FOO irrigation in the East
  • TRD → FOO imports

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • household food access
  • price transmission from shocks
  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

System chapter

Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk in a country built for cold. Floods and cold also load the NHS and social care.

2,985deathsheat-associated, England, 2022 [11]
40.3°Crecord temperature [28]
2023reportHealth Effects of Climate Change [12]

State at baseline

ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heatabout 2,985 heat-associated deaths in 2022[11]REPORTED
Vulnerabilityolder people and those with chronic illness[12]REPORTED
Floodinghealth effects of floods and displacement[12]REPORTED
Surge capacitynot consolidated nationally, EXPERT INPUT

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT power for care
  • WAT → HLT water quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • NHS and care heat surge capacity
  • cooling in care homes
  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

System chapter

Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries. Species abundance has fallen by a fifth since 1970, weakening natural flood and water regulation.

−19%species abundance since 1970 [15]
1 in 6speciesat risk of extinction, GB [15]
2021ActEnvironment Act targets [25]

State at baseline

ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Abundanceaverage decline of 19% since 1970[15]REPORTED
Extinction riskone in six species in Great Britain[15]REPORTED
Riversstorm overflows and low flows[10]REPORTED
Targetslegally binding targets under the Environment Act[25]REPORTED

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT flood and water regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • WAT → BIO river quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • habitat condition indicators
  • progress against Environment Act targets
  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

Process

How this edition is made, released and corrected.

Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.

How one quarterly edition reaches the open record

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

How one quarterly edition reaches the open recordEvery edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.

The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.

Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).

How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute

Open science

This edition's open record.

Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.

This edition's open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for Nexus material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for United Kingdom; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on United Kingdom, prefilled from this page
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Outputs

This edition in every format, with where it came from.

What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.

FormatStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
data/editions/GBR.json, the content pack the print and web editions are built from
Evidence cut
NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Nexus Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Cite it

NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Short citation
Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United Kingdom Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.
A finding
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United Kingdom Report 2026, Baseline Edition, finding NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001, v1.0.0.
A figure
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United Kingdom Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
A data table
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.

Indicator data

Baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Territorial GHG emissions373Mt CO₂e2024REPORTED[1]
Change since 1990−53%2024REPORTED[1]
Last coal power station closedSept20242024REPORTED[18]
Record temperature40.3°C2022REPORTED[28]
Warmest year mean temperature10.03°C2022REPORTED[29]
Heat-associated deaths, England2,985deaths2022REPORTED[11]
Properties at flood risk, England6.3million2024REPORTED[8]
Properties at flood risk by 2050≈8million2050SCENARIO[8]
Water-supply shortfall by 2055≈5bn litres/day2055SCENARIO[9]
Storm overflow spills>460,000spills2023REPORTED[10]
Population68.3millionmid-2023REPORTED[13]
Domestic share of food consumed≈60%2023REPORTED[14]
Change in species abundance−19%1970–2021REPORTED[15]
Species at risk of extinction, GB≈16%2023REPORTED[15]
National risks in register89risks2023REPORTED[7]
Climate risks and opportunities61items2021REPORTED[4]

Six pillars

Where this edition sits among the six pillars.

Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.

United Kingdom 2026 among the six pillarsF03 Sealed observations and indicator series: Foundry; F04 After-action and scenario findings for: Universe; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter: Foundry; Applied in editions: Standards; GBR edition: Reports; F06 Method and correction findings as change: Standards; F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year: Universe; Taught in the open: Academy
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GBR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GBR edition Reports United Kingdom 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Nexus Foundry to Nexus ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Nexus Universe to Nexus ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Nexus Foundry to Nexus ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to Nexus ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Nexus Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Nexus Reports to Nexus UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingNexus Reports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Corrections log

Versions and notices.

A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GBRNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual editionNone

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

References · NR-CIT-1

40 sources this edition rests on.

  1. [1]Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.
  2. [2]Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.
  3. [3]M. Kendon et al., “State of the UK Climate 2024,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025.
  4. [4]Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.
  5. [5]HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.
  6. [6]Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.
  7. [7]Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.
  8. [8]Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.
  9. [9]Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.
  10. [10]Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.
  11. [11]UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.
  12. [12]UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.
  13. [13]Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.
  14. [14]Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.
  15. [15]State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.
  16. [16]Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.
  17. [17]National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.
  18. [18]Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.
  19. [19]National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.
  20. [20]Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.
  21. [21]Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.
  22. [22]Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.
  23. [23]Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023.
  24. [24]UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.
  25. [25]UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.
  26. [26]UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.
  27. [27]Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.
  28. [28]Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.
  29. [29]Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.
  30. [30]WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
  31. [31]H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.
  32. [32]J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.
  33. [33]S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
  34. [34]P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054.
  35. [35]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Nexus Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. [36]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  37. [37]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  38. [38]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  39. [39]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  40. [40]S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

Publication record

Who publishes it, on which terms.

Publication

Title
Nexus United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Nexus Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Nexus Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · __PAGES__ pages · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Nexus Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Nexus Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Release path for this version

StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Nexus Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
Nexus ReportsNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0Evidence close 30 September 2026GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, publisher of recordThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
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