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Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026
Nexus Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report
The state of France’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline
The record
About this edition
The first annual edition of the France report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of France’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any ministry, regional or local authority, operator or company. Competent authorities in metropolitan France and the overseas territories keep every mandate they hold.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Abstract and decision surface
Abstract
France enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions to 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but at a pace the High Council for the Climate judges too slow for the 2030 target of 270 Mt [1] [3] [40]. Its electricity is about 95% low-carbon and the country exported a record volume of power in 2024 [7], yet the same nuclear fleet showed its exposure in 2022, when corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling cut output to its lowest level since 1988 [25]. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France [8], and heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024, three quarters of them among people aged 75 and over [4]. About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence [21] and 17.1 million residents to river flooding [22]. France produces nearly a fifth of the EU’s agricultural output [23], while farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989 [18]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
Headline finding
Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as stress-corrosion repairs coincided with heat and low river flows that limited cooling; output recovered to about 362 TWh in 2024.
Implication
Nuclear provides about two-thirds of French electricity, so a hot, dry summer is an energy event as well as a water and health event. When reactors cut output, France imports at peak European prices and its neighbours lose an exporter [7] [25].
At a glance
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Where do emissions stand?
369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but falling about half as fast as the 2030 target needs. [1] [3]
REPORTED
Is the climate already changing?
2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France; the national adaptation plan now prepares for +4 °C by 2100. [8] [9] [10]
REPORTED
Who is most exposed to heat?
People aged 75 and over: about three quarters of the 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024. [4]
REPORTED
How exposed is electricity to heat and drought?
Nuclear output fell to its lowest since 1988 in 2022, when heat and low flows limited cooling. [25]
REPORTED
How large is flood exposure?
About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding. [22]
REPORTED
What does drought do to houses?
About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence. [21]
REPORTED
How is nature faring?
Farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989. [18]
REPORTED
What will Q1 2027 test first?
A hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought and fire load health, food and insurance. SCN-FRA-HDN-01
EXPERT INPUT
Systems dashboard
WATWater
Share of freshwater consumed by agriculture
≈58%
drinking water about 26% and power-plant cooling about 12% of consumption.
REPORTEDrecentSDES [12]
ENEEnergy
Low-carbon share of electricity
≈95%
nuclear about two-thirds; record net exports in 2024.
REPORTED2024RTE [7]
FOOFood
Share of EU agricultural output
≈18%
the largest of any member state.
REPORTED2024Eurostat [23]
HLTHealth
Heat-attributable deaths, summer
3,700+deaths
about three quarters among people aged 75 and over.
REPORTED2024SpF [4]
BIOBiodiversity
Change in farmland bird populations
≈−30%
since 1989, the clearest long-run signal of pressure on farmland ecosystems.
REPORTED1989–2023ONB [18]
SYSCross-system
Natural-event insurance claims
≈10€ bn
in 2022, the highest since 1999, driven by hail, drought and storms.
REPORTED2022France Assureurs [13]
Place · France
A live context map of satellite and model layers for the territory. Context for the findings, never a value the edition asserts; where the layers cannot load, the base map and its note stay.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, framed on France.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Static base: the live map shows here when its map library and satellite tiles can load. Natural Earth land at 110m with the editions marked; filled marks are drafted editions, rings are editions in preparation.
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
CLIClimate forcing
ENEEnergy
HLTHealth
Heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024; about three quarters were among people aged 75 and over. [4]
FOOFood
France produces about 18% of the EU’s agricultural output, the largest share of any member state. [23]
WATWater
FINFinance
BIOBiodiversity
Farmland bird populations have declined by about 30% since 1989. [18]
SYSSystemic
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought, wildfire and clay subsidence load health, food and insurance. §9.3
Part I · lead chapter
France usually meets its climate risks one at a time: a heatwave, a drought, a flood, a fire season. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France [8]; in the same year rivers ran low, more than 60,000 hectares burned [20], clay soils shrank under thousands of houses, and the nuclear fleet produced less electricity than in any year since 1988 [25].
The forcing is now planned for, not only observed. The third national adaptation plan, adopted in 2025, prepares the country for a reference trajectory of about +4 °C by 2100 in metropolitan France [9] [10]. The 2003 heatwave, which killed more than 70,000 people across Europe [39], remains the reference case: heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024, three quarters of them among people aged 75 and over [4].
Water couples the other systems most directly. Agriculture accounts for about 58% of freshwater consumed and power-plant cooling for about 12% [12]; in hot, dry summers both compete with drinking water for the same low flows. The 2023 Plan eau sets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030 [11]. About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding [22].
The energy system is low-carbon and water-dependent. Electricity was about 95% low-carbon in 2024, and power-sector emissions fell 26% as nuclear and hydro output recovered [1] [7]. But most reactors are cooled by rivers or the sea, and heat limits on discharge temperatures can force output cuts just when demand for cooling rises. Total emissions fell only 1.8% in 2024, about half the pace the 2030 target needs [1] [3].
Losses fall on a shared national regime. Since 1982 the CatNat system has spread the cost of natural disasters across all property policyholders [15]. Drought subsidence of clay soils now threatens about 10.4 million detached houses [21], and natural-event claims reached about €10 billion in 2022, the highest since 1999 [13]. Overseas, Cyclone Chido devastated Mayotte in December 2024 [26].
This edition therefore treats French risk as a property of couplings, between heat, rivers, reactors, harvests, houses and health, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.
Agriculture consumes most freshwater, mainly in summer when river flows are lowest. Power plants withdraw large volumes for cooling but return most of them, warmer [12].
Dependency network
The France matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
Select a system
Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONGnuclear cooling · hydro | STRONGirrigation · rain-fed yield | MODERATEdrinking water | STRONGflows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATEpumping · treatment | · | STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONGfacility power · cooling | MODERATEreservoirs · land use |
| FOO Food | MODERATEwithdrawals · nutrients | WEAKbiofuel feedstock | · | STRONGnutrition · food safety | STRONGland conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAKworkforce | WEAKworkforce | MODERATElabour · disease | · | WEAKresidues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONGregulation · filtration | MODERATEfire on lines · biomass | STRONGpollination · soils | MODERATEzoonoses · smoke | · |
Transmission paths
Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong
A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.
Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Low summer flows shared by irrigation, cooling and drinking water; 17.1 million residents exposed to river flooding. | WAT → ENE · WAT → FOO | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| ENE | About 95% low-carbon electricity; nuclear output exposed to heat and low flows. | ENE ← WAT · ENE → HLT | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| FOO | The EU’s largest agricultural producer; harvests cut in hot, dry years. | FOO ← WAT, CLI | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| HLT | More than 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024; older people most exposed. | HLT ← CLI, ENE | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| BIO | Farmland birds down about 30% since 1989; wildfire reaching new regions. | BIO → FOO pollination | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| CLI | 2022 the warmest year on record; planning for +4 °C by 2100. | forcing on all five systems | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| INF | Rail, roads and networks exposed to heat, floods and clay movement. | INF ← CLI, WAT | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| FIN | CatNat regime since 1982; claims rising with drought subsidence. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → households | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| DAT | Data-centre growth near major cities adds grid and cooling demand. | DAT ← ENE, WAT | INFERREDEQL 2 |
| AIC | Low-carbon power attracts compute; national figures not consolidated. | AIC → ENE | EXPERT INPUTEQL 2 |
| MIN | Import reliance for transition minerals. | MIN → ENE transition | INFERREDEQL 2 |
| TRD | Electricity exports and food exports link France to its neighbours. | TRD ↔ ENE, FOO | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | coupled heat–drought–energy summers [8] [25] | compound hot, dry summers | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | low flows shared by three uses [12] | drought; floods | GOOD |
| GS-02 | Energy | about 95% low-carbon power [7] | cooling limits in heat | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | largest EU agricultural producer [23] | drought and heat on harvests | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | 3,700+ heat deaths, 2024 [4] | heat among older people | GOOD |
| GS-05 | Finance | CatNat regime [14] [15] | subsidence and flood claims | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | overseas service gaps | cyclones and water supply | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | warmest year 2022 [8] | heat, drought, Mediterranean storms | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | Cyclone Chido, Mayotte, 2024 [26] | overseas and metropolitan extremes | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | networks exposed to heat and clay movement | rail and road disruption | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban heat islands | heat in dense cities | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | farmland birds −30% [18] | habitat loss; wildfire | GOOD |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong national and European monitoring | data integration | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | data-centre growth | outages and attacks | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | climate, energy and adaptation laws [9] [16] [17] | implementation pace [3] | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | deep research base | translation into operations | THIN |
Risk portfolio
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Scenario · SCN-FRA-HDN-01
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Assumptions
Cascade, step by step
How the shock in scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01 would travel through France's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
Low rainfall and heat cut river flows. Analogue or source: 2022. Edition FRA, scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01, step 1
The cascade of scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.
Sources: France 2026, scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01 (2026); France 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Three lenses
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports a coupled reading of French risk. Heat, drought and low flows already constrain electricity, harvests and health; flood and subsidence losses fall on a shared insurance regime. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and power output, and weakest for overseas exposure and cross-system dependencies.
CLI-001 · ENE-004 · HLT-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a cracked wall or a water restriction. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh how the CatNat regime shares costs as claims rise.
HLT-006 · FIN-009 · WAT-008
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. A national catastrophe regime under rising claims [14], a low-carbon grid exposed to cooling limits [25] and a slowing emissions trend [3] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-009 · FIN-010 · ENE-004
NEXUS
France has a low-carbon power system and strong institutions, but its systems share the same summer rivers. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry summer pathway, measure CatNat exposure by peril and region, and map water allocation in the main basins.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading
2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
How would a hot, dry summer with low river flows constrain nuclear and hydro output while heat and drought load health services and harvests?
How sustainable is the CatNat regime as drought subsidence, floods and hail claims grow?
How should water be shared between irrigation, cooling and drinking water in dry summers?
What heat surge capacity exists for people aged 75 and over, at home and in care?
How far north and west is wildfire risk spreading, and which communities are newly exposed?
How exposed are the overseas territories to cyclones, water shortage and supply disruption?
How are farmland habitats and pollination changing, and what does that mean for yields?
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-FRA-HDN-01 | Heat–drought–nuclear summer dependency model | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-FRA-FIN-02 | CatNat exposure by peril and region | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-FRA-WAT-03 | Basin water allocation under drought | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-FRA-HLT-04 | Heat surge readiness for older people | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-FRA-CLI-05 | Wildfire expansion | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-FRA-2027-01 | Hot, dry summer Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | CANDIDATE |
The pathway
Nexus France is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across metropolitan France and the overseas territories. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
National Model
the country as a system of systems
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
Nexus Foundry
continuous computational environment
Nexus Reports
quarterly and annual publication
Nexus Universe
annual proving environment
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
System chapter
France’s water is plentiful in winter and contested in summer, when irrigation, reactor cooling and drinking water draw on the same low flows.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use | agriculture about 58%, drinking water 26%, cooling 12% of consumption | [12] | REPORTED |
| Drought | repeated summer restrictions since 2019 | [11] | REPORTED |
| Flooding | about 17.1 million residents exposed to river flooding | [22] | REPORTED |
| Planning | Plan eau sets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030 | [11] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
French electricity is about 95% low-carbon, led by nuclear power cooled by rivers and the sea. Its exposure is to heat, drought and maintenance cycles more than to fuel.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mix | nuclear about two-thirds; hydro, wind and solar most of the rest | [7] | REPORTED |
| 2022 low | nuclear output lowest since 1988 | [25] | REPORTED |
| Recovery | about 362 TWh in 2024 and record exports | [7] | REPORTED |
| Cooling limits | discharge-temperature limits bind in heatwaves | [25] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
France is the EU’s largest agricultural producer. Hot, dry years cut harvests, and irrigation competes with other uses for summer water.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | largest agricultural output in the EU | [23] | REPORTED |
| Drought | harvests cut in hot, dry years | [24] | REPORTED |
| Water | irrigation the largest consumptive use | [12] | REPORTED |
| Biodiversity | farmland species declining | [18] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Heat is France’s deadliest climate hazard. The 2003 heatwave remains the reference case, and older people carry most of the burden.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | more than 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024 | [4] | REPORTED |
| Age | about three quarters among people aged 75 and over | [4] | REPORTED |
| Reference case | the 2003 heatwave | [39] | REPORTED |
| Surge capacity | not consolidated nationally | , | EXPERT INPUT |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
France holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity, much of it overseas. Farmland species are declining, and wildfire is reaching regions once spared.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farmland birds | about 30% decline since 1989 | [18] | REPORTED |
| Red List | about one in six assessed species threatened | [19] | REPORTED |
| Wildfire | large fires in the south-west and beyond in 2022 | [20] | REPORTED |
| Overseas | most endemic species are in overseas territories | [19] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
Process
Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute
Open science
Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.
Search the open indexes for France; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.
| Format | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web editionHTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print editionPDF | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Indicator dataCSV · JSON | On this site | 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| FiguresSVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-* |
| SlidesPDF | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | |
| Evidence briefHTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOIDataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
Cite it
Indicator data
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Territorial GHG emissions | 369 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Change since 1990 | −32 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| 2030 emissions target | 270 | Mt CO₂e | 2030 | REPORTED | [40] |
| Low-carbon share of electricity | ≈95 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Nuclear output | 279 | TWh | 2022 | REPORTED | [25] |
| Nuclear output | ≈362 | TWh | 2024 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Warmest-year mean temperature | 14.5 | °C | 2022 | REPORTED | [8] |
| Heat-attributable deaths | 3,700+ | deaths | 2024 | REPORTED | [4] |
| Population | 68.6 | million | 1 Jan 2025 | REPORTED | [6] |
| Agriculture share of water consumed | ≈58 | % | recent | REPORTED | [12] |
| Withdrawal reduction target | 10 | % | 2030 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Share of EU agricultural output | ≈18 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [23] |
| Houses exposed to clay subsidence | 10.4 | million | 2021 | REPORTED | [21] |
| Residents exposed to river flooding | 17.1 | million | recent | REPORTED | [22] |
| Natural-event claims | ≈10 | € billion | 2022 | REPORTED | [13] |
| Change in farmland birds | ≈−30 | % | 1989–2023 | REPORTED | [18] |
Six pillars
Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Corrections log
A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRA | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
References · NR-CIT-1
Publication record
Publication
Publisher
Colophon
Release path for this version
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline | Q1 2027 |