United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the United Arab Emirates baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 195.2 Mt CO₂e net in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019. Later years are not bound.³

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt; net zero in 2050.¹

   What is the climate aim?Reported

3. Gas 68%, nuclear 21%, solar 10% in 2025; 7,907 MW of renewables at the end of 2025.¹⁷¹⁹

   How is electricity made?Reported

4. About 15 m³ of renewable freshwater a person; Abu Dhabi groundwater was drawn at 24 times recharge.¹⁰²⁰

   How exposed is water?Reported

5. At least 80% is imported. The import share by commodity is not bound.⁵

   How secure is food?Reported

6. The third NDC names heat stress and heat stroke a high risk. A heat-illness series is not bound.¹

   Is heat a health hazard?Reported

7. 254 mm of rain in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024.²³

   What does a flash flood look like?Reported

8. A humid summer heat peak loading power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together. SCN-ARE-HTW-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%, and total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.

Gas generation fell by about 7% while total output grew by a third, so the change came from new nuclear and solar capacity added to rising demand, not from lower demand. Cooling and desalination ride on the same grid, so the mix matters for heat and water as well as for emissions¹⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
5. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is the United Arab Emirates’ risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The United Arab Emirates matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → ENE → WAT

   A heat peak raises cooling demand, and desalination needs the same power.

   Inferred summer peak; not bound for 2025

2. 02

   CLI → INF

   Record rain met inadequate drainage and abandoned cars in Dubai.

   Reported April 2024²³²⁴

3. 03

   WAT → FOO

   Groundwater mainly irrigates crops in Abu Dhabi.

   Reported policy 2022²⁰

4. 04

   ENE → WAT

   Gas and nuclear power supply pumping and desalination.

   Inferred grid mix 2025¹⁷

5. 05

   TRD → FIN

   Fuel exports bring revenue while the non-oil fiscal balance is in deficit.

   Reported IMF 2025⁵ · exports 2023¹⁵

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back
10. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%, and total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.

Implication

Gas generation fell by about 7% while total output grew by a third, so the change came from new nuclear and solar capacity added to rising demand, not from lower demand. Cooling and desalination ride on the same grid, so the mix matters for heat and water as well as for emissions¹⁷.

What would move it

The 2026 generation data, summer peak demand and nuclear availability, solar commissioning against the 22 GW aim, and any published fuel burned for desalination would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Net greenhouse-gas emissions were 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019; energy gave 164.1 Mt, industrial processes 29.6 Mt and waste 5.6 Mt, and land use removed 6.6 Mt.³

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 2050; the 2023 update used a 2019 base of 225 Mt, so the base has been revised.¹²

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   Rain of 254 mm fell in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024, the highest since records began in 1949; four deaths were reported in the UAE, and 85% of residents live in flood-prone, low-lying areas.²³²⁴

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%; total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.¹⁷¹⁸

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Renewable capacity was 7,907 MW at the end of 2025, against 6.8 GW in 2024 as reported to the UNFCCC; the national aim is 22 GW by 2031.¹⁹⁴

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   Internal renewable freshwater is 14.9 m³ per person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge.¹⁰²⁰

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Treated wastewater reuse reached 77% against a 95% aim for 2036, and the national demand programme reports 513 million m³ saved; a current national share of desalinated supply is not bound.¹²¹

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   At least 80% of food consumed is imported; arable land is 0.8% of land area and cereal production was about 20,000 tonnes in 2024.⁵¹³

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

   A reading of 51.6 °C was reported at Sweihan on 24 May 2025, and outdoor work stops from 12:30 to 15:00 between 15 June and 15 September; no national heat-illness series is bound.²⁵²⁶

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

   Protected areas covered 19.2% of land and 12.0% of marine waters in 2025; Abu Dhabi directed an expansion to 20% of its land in October 2025.¹²³⁵

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   Real GDP grew 4.0% in 2024 and the IMF projects 4.8% for 2025 and 5.0% for 2026; fuel was 68% of merchandise exports in 2023, and the non-oil primary balance is a deficit of 15.1% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025.⁵¹⁵

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a humid summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 8Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment (ed.), Dubai population at the end of 2025 (about 4.58 million, up 7.5%), as reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 30 July 2026. Observation year 2025. https://thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/07/30/dubai-population-surpassed-45-million-by-end-of-2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-CLI-001

   Extreme heat and humidity

   Driver

   a reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025; humid heat rising²⁵³¹

   Exposure

   outdoor workers; older residents

   Vulnerability

   a large outdoor workforce, per the third NDC¹

   Capacity

   midday work break and fines²⁶

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-WAT-002

   Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

   Driver

   groundwater drawn at 24 times recharge in Abu Dhabi²⁰

   Exposure

   farms; cities supplied by desalinated water

   Vulnerability

   little renewable water: 14.9 m³ a person¹⁰

   Capacity

   Water Security Strategy 2036; reuse at 77%¹

   Cascade

   WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE

   Horizon

   5–30 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-CLI-003

   Flash flood and urban drainage

   Driver

   intense rain on low-permeability, hyper-arid ground²⁴

   Exposure

   85% of residents in flood-prone, low-lying areas²⁴

   Vulnerability

   drainage built for rare rain²⁴

   Capacity

   Tasreef drainage programme; cell-broadcast alerts²⁷³³

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → HLT

   Horizon

   annual

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-ARE-ENE-004

   Fuel and power supply under peak demand

   Driver

   summer peak; fuel or grid disruption

   Exposure

   power, desalination, cooling

   Vulnerability

   gas 68% of generation¹⁷

   Capacity

   5.6 GW of nuclear and 7.9 GW of renewables in service¹⁷¹⁹

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back
3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 33National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Early Warning System (cell broadcast, Arabic and English), as described in “Rain in UAE: did you receive a public safety alert,” Gulf News, Dubai, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://gulfnews.com/amp/living-in-uae/safety-security/rain-in-uae-did-you-receive-a-public-safety-alert-here-is-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-national-early-warning-system-1.1700224017503, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ARE-HTW-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a hot, humid summer fortnight with record cooling demand, after a spring heat reading like that of May 2025

Analogues

May 2025 heat²⁵; April 2024 rain²³ (a different hazard, used for response only)

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → ENE

   cooling load raises peak power demand

   summer peak

2. 2

   ENE → WAT

   desalination needs power at the same peak

   system link

3. 3

   CLI → HLT

   heat load rises on outdoor workers around the midday break

   break rules²⁶

4. 4

   WAT → HLT

   water for drinking and cooling is stretched

   system link

5. 5

   HLT → INF

   care and transport capacity are stretched

   system link

6. 6

   FIN

   costs fall on utilities and the public budget

   IMF 2025⁵

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ARE-HTW-01 would travel through United Arab Emirates’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: United Arab Emirates 2026, scenario SCN-ARE-HTW-01 (2026); United Arab Emirates 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the United Arab Emirates. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the United Arab Emirates’ coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Details from memory. Used as a standards reference only.back
3. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), National Food Security Strategy 2051. u.ae, Abu Dhabi, page updated 30 December 2024. Observation year 2024. https://u.ae/about-the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/strategies-plans-and-visions/environment-and-energy/national-food-security-strategy-2051, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Landing page read; target text not read. https://www.cbd.int/gbf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Details from memory; the issuer page returned an access error. Used as a standards reference only.back
10. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. doi:10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647. Used as context only. doi:10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647back
12. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Details from memory. Used as framework only. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
13. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3. Used as framework only. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3back
14. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection. doi:10.1038/nclimate2833. Used as context only. doi:10.1038/nclimate2833back
15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6. Used as context only. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6back
16. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back
17. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Internal edition, not located or re-read in this task.back
18. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Internal edition, not re-read in this task.back
19. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 37Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (2025 about 1.47 °C above pre-industrial), as reported in “Gulf will become more humid and hot as global temperatures rise, researchers say,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 14 January 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/01/13/gulf-will-become-more-humid-and-hot-as-global-temperatures-rise-researchers-say, accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SH.H2O.BASW.ZS and SH.STA.BASS.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SH.H2O.BASW.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS and EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects, WHO and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2021–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
29. 8Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment (ed.), Dubai population at the end of 2025 (about 4.58 million, up 7.5%), as reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 30 July 2026. Observation year 2025. https://thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/07/30/dubai-population-surpassed-45-million-by-end-of-2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 for the United Arab Emirates (264 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024), from the EDGAR database of the European Commission Joint Research Centre. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. This series is read as an independent estimate: it differs from the national inventory in [3]. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a humid summer heat peak load power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together, and how much margin exists in each?

   INI-ARE-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two emirates.

2. A-02

   How much of the water supply is non-renewable groundwater and how much is desalinated, emirate by emirate, and how fast is groundwater drawn down?

   INI-ARE-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination; first output: supply-source register by emirate.

3. A-03

   How much fuel is burned for power and desalination as nuclear and solar grow, and what does the 2026 generation mix show?

   INI-ARE-ENE-03 · power mix and gas transition; first output: generation and fuel table for 2026.

4. A-04

   How concentrated are food imports, by commodity and origin, and how many days of reserves exist?

   INI-ARE-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

5. A-05

   How is heat illness counted among residents and outdoor workers?

   INI-ARE-HLT-05 · heat and outdoor work; first output: definitions and counting-rule note.

6. A-06

   How do flash floods and urban drainage interact across the emirates?

   INI-ARE-CLI-02 · workstream; first output: event register 2018–2026.

7. A-07

   What would a quantified pathway from the 2022 inventory to the 2035 aim need from power, industry and buildings?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

United Arab Emirates is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the United Arab Emirates from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ARE-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-ARE-2027-01 · Humid summer heat peak Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

The United Arab Emirates has almost no renewable freshwater. Supply rests on groundwater, desalinated seawater and reuse, and agriculture and households use most of what is withdrawn.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Gas still gave two thirds of electricity in 2025, yet nuclear and solar changed the mix within six years and the aim for renewables keeps rising.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Almost all food is imported and arable land is under 1% of the territory, so food security is a trade, storage and diversification question as much as a water question.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy is high and the population is young, but extreme heat is a direct hazard for outdoor workers, and the third NDC names heat stress and heat stroke as a high risk¹.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Most of the land is desert. Protection now covers about a fifth of the land and an eighth of marine waters, and mangroves act as a coastal carbon and buffer system.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 34Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park at 3,860 MW after 800 MW added in 2025 (about 21.5% of DEWA capacity), reported in “Al Maktoum Solar Park’s clean energy capacity hits 3.86GW in 2025,” TradeArabia, Manama, 28 December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.tradearabia.com/News/331795/Al-Maktoum-Solar-Park-s-clean-energy-capacity-hits-3.86GW-in-2025/CONS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), National Food Security Strategy 2051. u.ae, Abu Dhabi, page updated 30 December 2024. Observation year 2024. https://u.ae/about-the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/strategies-plans-and-visions/environment-and-energy/national-food-security-strategy-2051, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS and EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects, WHO and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2021–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 36Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statements on mangrove planting (51% of a 100 million tree target) and marine protection (about 12%, aim of 30% by 2030), reported in “UAE reaches 51% of target to plant 100 million mangrove trees by 2030,” Gulf News, Dubai, 22 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://gulfnews.com/uae/environment/uae-reaches-51-of-target-to-plant-100-million-mangrove-trees-by-2030-1.500648706, accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-ARE-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent the United Arab Emirates as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for emirate or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-ARE-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-ARE-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Second Biennial Transparency Report, inventory series after 2022³
• FAO AQUASTAT country accounts, desalination and reuse volumes¹⁰
• Federal and utility statistics, share of supply that is desalinated
• Customs and trade statistics, food import share by commodity⁵

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, gas share of electricity generation

Construct

gas-fired generation divided by total electricity generation

Unit

per cent

Scope

calendar year, national, including net imports

Source

Ember yearly electricity data¹⁷

Revision

annual back-revision by the data issuer

Known limits

Ember’s country page rounds differently from the dataset¹⁸; 2026 not bound

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
5. 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, United Arab Emirates by emirate

Map plates for every emirate follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Population⁶⁷⁸

B.4Atlas card, Dubai Emirate

• emirate
• central coast
• flash flood
• urban growth

Systems in view

drainage, power, water and health

Defining events

April 2024 rain: most of Dubai’s rain fell on 15 April and set a daily record²⁴

Couplings

CLI → INF; ENE → WAT

Capability evidence

AED 30 billion drainage programme to 2033²⁷; response records not bound

Gaps

heat illness series; drainage condition; emirate water supply by source

Agenda items

A-01 · A-06

B.5United Arab Emirates system card

The card through which the United Arab Emirates appears in the Middle East and North Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

hyper-arid federation with a fuel-linked economy, growing nuclear and solar supply and a large international population

Population

11.3 million (2024)⁷

Trade

fuel 68% of merchandise exports in 2023; at least 80% of food imported¹⁵⁵

Hazard

extreme heat; flash flood²⁵²³

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-ARE-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
2. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS and EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects, WHO and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2021–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE and EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from the IEA Energy Statistics. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 for the United Arab Emirates (264 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024), from the EDGAR database of the European Commission Joint Research Centre. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. This series is read as an independent estimate: it differs from the national inventory in [3]. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 8Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment (ed.), Dubai population at the end of 2025 (about 4.58 million, up 7.5%), as reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 30 July 2026. Observation year 2025. https://thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/07/30/dubai-population-surpassed-45-million-by-end-of-2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
3. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
4. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
8. 8Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment (ed.), Dubai population at the end of 2025 (about 4.58 million, up 7.5%), as reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 30 July 2026. Observation year 2025. https://thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/07/30/dubai-population-surpassed-45-million-by-end-of-2025, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
9. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS and EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects, WHO and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2021–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SH.H2O.BASW.ZS and SH.STA.BASS.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SH.H2O.BASW.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
12. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
13. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
14. 14DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE and EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from the IEA Energy Statistics. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.
15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2
16. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 for the United Arab Emirates (264 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024), from the EDGAR database of the European Commission Joint Research Centre. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. This series is read as an independent estimate: it differs from the national inventory in [3]. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
18. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), National Food Security Strategy 2051. u.ae, Abu Dhabi, page updated 30 December 2024. Observation year 2024. https://u.ae/about-the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/strategies-plans-and-visions/environment-and-energy/national-food-security-strategy-2051, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
24. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
26. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7
28. 28Dubai Municipality (ed.), AED 1.439 billion contracts awarded for four Tasreef project phases. Dubai Municipality, Dubai, 18 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.dm.gov.ae/aed-1-439-billion-contracts-awarded-for-four-tasreef-project-phases/, accessed 2026-11-03.
29. 29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
31. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Landing page read; target text not read. https://www.cbd.int/gbf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Early Warning System (cell broadcast, Arabic and English), as described in “Rain in UAE: did you receive a public safety alert,” Gulf News, Dubai, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://gulfnews.com/amp/living-in-uae/safety-security/rain-in-uae-did-you-receive-a-public-safety-alert-here-is-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-national-early-warning-system-1.1700224017503, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
34. 34Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park at 3,860 MW after 800 MW added in 2025 (about 21.5% of DEWA capacity), reported in “Al Maktoum Solar Park’s clean energy capacity hits 3.86GW in 2025,” TradeArabia, Manama, 28 December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.tradearabia.com/News/331795/Al-Maktoum-Solar-Park-s-clean-energy-capacity-hits-3.86GW-in-2025/CONS, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
35. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
36. 36Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statements on mangrove planting (51% of a 100 million tree target) and marine protection (about 12%, aim of 30% by 2030), reported in “UAE reaches 51% of target to plant 100 million mangrove trees by 2030,” Gulf News, Dubai, 22 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://gulfnews.com/uae/environment/uae-reaches-51-of-target-to-plant-100-million-mangrove-trees-by-2030-1.500648706, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
37. 37Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (2025 about 1.47 °C above pre-industrial), as reported in “Gulf will become more humid and hot as global temperatures rise, researchers say,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 14 January 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/01/13/gulf-will-become-more-humid-and-hot-as-global-temperatures-rise-researchers-say, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection. doi:10.1038/nclimate2833. Used as context only. doi:10.1038/nclimate2833 Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6. Used as context only. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3. Used as framework only. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3 Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened (Crossref bibliographic record only): H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. doi:10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647. Used as context only. doi:10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647 Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Details from memory; the issuer page returned an access error. Used as a standards reference only. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Details from memory. Used as a standards reference only. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Details from memory. Used as framework only. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Internal edition, not located or re-read in this task. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Internal edition, not re-read in this task. Cited in chapter 6

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