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Switzerland Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems

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Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsCHE

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Switzerland 2026

The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number
NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close
30 September 2026, cut NQ-CHE-2026-Q0-1
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI
Issued at deposit
Licence
CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Switzerland Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/che/

Contents

  1. ·

    Executive summary

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

8 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Switzerland (Schweiz, Suisse, Svizzera) enters 2027 with 9.13 million residents1, and people aged 65 or over (about 1.81 million) now outnumber those under 20 (about 1.80 million)2. Its risks come from mountains and from water. The 2025 mean temperature was 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm, the fourth-warmest year since records began in 186412, and glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 201513. On 28 May 2025 the Birch Glacier collapsed under rock debris and buried most of Blatten, and insurers put the insured damage at CHF 255 million1416. In 2026 a snow-poor winter and a dry spring left about one-fifth of monitoring stations at a record low for the season between April and July19, Lake Zurich at its lowest level since records began in 195120, and hydropower reservoirs at 46% full in mid-July, 16.4 points below the 20-year average8. Emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 19903, against a second contribution that sets a cut of at least 65% by 20354. Hydropower gave 55.5% of domestic generation in 2025 and nuclear power 27.2%6. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Switzerland’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, slope failure and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Switzerland baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 1990. Later years are not bound.3

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. At least 65% below 1990 by 2035 as a 106.8 MtCO₂e budget for 2031–2035; net zero by 2050.4

    What is the climate target?Reported

  3. Hydropower and nuclear gave 82.7% of domestic generation in 2025, and reservoirs were low in July 2026.68

    How secure is power?Reported

  4. The self-sufficiency rate is not bound. Drought aid of CHF 54 million was offered in 2026.3357

    How secure is food?Not bound

  5. About one-fifth of stations hit record lows for the season in April to July 2026.1920

    How exposed is water?Reported

  6. A small glacier under load can destroy a village in minutes. Insured damage was CHF 255 million.1416

    What did Blatten show?Reported

  7. Heat caused an estimated 326 deaths in 2024 and 542 in 2023, and people aged 65 or over now outnumber those under 20.1718

    Who carries the strain?Reported

  8. A dry year with low reservoirs and river flows hitting hydropower, winter imports, farms and forests. SCN-CHE-DRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of Swiss monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and the Rhine at Basel flowed less in July than in summer 2003.

Figure S.1Reservoir fill in July 2026 against the 20-year mean (% of capacity)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Reservoir fill, 9 July 202642.7
Reservoir fill, 17 July 202646
20-year mean for mid-July (46 + 16.4, arithmetic)62.4

Sources: Swiss Federal Office of Energy weekly figures, as reported89. The mean is derived from the stated gap of 16.4 points and is not a published figure.

Alpine hydropower and river flows carry electricity, farm water and river navigation at once. A dry year that lowers reservoirs and rivers together raises winter import dependence and farm and forest stress in the same season81920.

S.4At a glance

9.13million

population, 31 December 20251

1.81million

people aged 65+, provisional, 20252

40.1MtCO₂e

greenhouse gases, 20243

55.5%

hydropower share of generation, 20256

7%

forest area protected, 202225

1.4%

GDP growth, 202530

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Switzerland’s risk: Alpine ice and snow set the water, power and slope hazards together, and public finances are strong.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a dry summer, a hot week or a closed road.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured hazard losses sit with a private pool, and the IMF frames fiscal room.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Switzerland holds long weather, glacier and energy records, and thinner evidence on groundwater, reserves and service continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Switzerland’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  3. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
  4. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  7. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  8. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  9. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  10. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  14. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  15. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  18. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  19. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release.back

Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no canton.

10 min read2 figures2 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Switzerland’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Switzerland is a small, wealthy, mountainous country with 9.13 million residents1. Its systems are tied to snow, ice and the rivers that leave the Alps. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: warming that is faster than the global average, an electricity system built on Alpine hydropower and imports, and settlements built below unstable slopes.

Warming is the first force. The current climate mean is 2.8 °C above the pre-industrial average4, and 2025 was the fourth-warmest year since records began in 186412. Glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 201513. On 28 May 2025 a small glacier at Blatten collapsed under the weight of rock that had fallen onto it, and the collapse buried most of the village1415. Insured damage was put at CHF 255 million16.

The water layer showed its other face in 2026. A snow-poor winter and a dry spring left the Rhine, the Aare and Lake Constance at record lows in June21. Between April and July about one-fifth of monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period19, the Rhine at Basel flowed less in July than in summer 2003, and Lake Zurich reached its lowest level since 1951 on 19 August20. More than 80% of drinking water comes from larger underground sources, and the groundwater monitoring network is thin22.

The energy layer follows the water. Hydropower supplied 55.5% of domestic generation in 2025 and nuclear power 27.2%6. Hydropower output fell 22.5% from the record of 20246, and reservoirs stood at 46% full in mid-July 20268. All natural gas was imported in 2025, and biogas feed-in into the gas grid was 510 GWh6. Emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 20243, and the second contribution sets a 2031–2035 budget of 106.8 MtCO₂e4.

The social layer sets how much shock the country can absorb. People aged 65 or over now outnumber those under 202. Heat caused an estimated 623 deaths in the summer of 2022, 542 in 2023 and 326 in 20241817. The IMF describes strong public finances and a debt brake it judges appropriate, and it expects spending pressure from pensions, health and the low-carbon transition2829.

This edition therefore reads Switzerland’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The civil protection office’s national analysis already names a long power shortage and a pandemic among the largest national risks24. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1Where do reported emissions sit against the 2031–2035 budget? Switzerland’s 2024 totals (MtCO₂e)

The inventory total was 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, with transport the largest source at 13.43. The 2031–2035 budget of 106.8 MtCO₂e averages 21.4 a year4. The two are not on a matched basis, and the share of reductions realised abroad is not disclosed5.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Total 2024 (excl. land use and international aviation)40
Transport 202413
Industry 20249
Buildings 20249
Agriculture 20247
Annual mean of the 2031–2035 budget21

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-01-003

40.1MtCO₂e

inventory total, 20243

27.3%

below 1990, 20243

106.8MtCO₂e

budget 2031–20354

65%

cut by 2035 on 1990, at least4

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Switzerland matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydropower · cooling
MODERATE
irrigation · pasture
MODERATE
drinking water
STRONG
streams · lakes · groundwater
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · pumped storage
·MODERATE
fuel · heating · cold chain
STRONG
facility power · cooling
MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients
WEAK
biogas
·MODERATE
nutrition · food safety
STRONG
land use · nitrogen
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce
WEAK
workforce
WEAK
labour
·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
forest and wetland regulation
WEAK
biomass
STRONG
pollination · soils
WEAK
zoonoses · air
·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    A snow-poor winter and dry spring lower rivers and reservoirs and cut hydropower.

    Reported 2025–20266821

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    Drought strains pastures and farm liquidity.

    Reported 202633

  3. 03

    CLI → INF

    Glacier and rock failure above a village destroys homes and roads.

    Reported Blatten 202514

  4. 04

    CLI → HLT

    Hot summers raise deaths among older people.

    Reported 2022–20241718

  5. 05

    ENE → FIN

    Low hydropower raises import needs and exposure to foreign supply.

    Inferred not bound for Switzerland

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: streams · lakes · groundwaterBiodiversity to water: forest and wetland regulation
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land use · nitrogenBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
  4. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only.back
  7. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  8. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  10. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  11. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  12. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  14. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  16. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 29Federal Council (ed.), “International Monetary Fund praises the resilience of the Swiss economy” (debt brake appropriate; spending pressure from pensions, health and the low-carbon transition). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 25 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/9CnjDEMpjWvY_tyiCF7az, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  21. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of Swiss monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and the Rhine at Basel flowed less in July than in summer 2003.

Figure 2.1Reservoir fill in July 2026 against the 20-year mean (% of capacity)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Reservoir fill, 9 July 202642.7
Reservoir fill, 17 July 202646
20-year mean for mid-July (46 + 16.4, arithmetic)62.4

Sources: Swiss Federal Office of Energy weekly figures, as reported89. The mean is derived from the stated gap of 16.4 points and is not a published figure.

Implication

Alpine hydropower and river flows carry electricity, farm water and river navigation at once. A dry year that lowers reservoirs and rivers together raises winter import dependence and farm and forest stress in the same season81920.

What would move it

Winter snow depth, spring and summer rainfall, reservoir fill reported weekly by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy and Rhine flow at Basel would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 1990 and 22.3% below when land use is included; transport emitted 13.4 MtCO₂e and international aviation and maritime a further 5.5 MtCO₂e outside the 2030 target.3

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The second contribution sets a cut of at least 65% by 2035 on 1990 as a 2031–2035 budget of 106.8 MtCO₂e, and the Climate and Innovation Act, adopted by 59.07% of voters in 2023, sets net zero by 2050.4531

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    On 28 May 2025 the Birch Glacier collapsed under about 3 million m³ of rock debris, buried most of Blatten and caused one death; insured damage was put at CHF 255 million.141516

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015, and the contribution states that glaciers have lost over 65% of their volume since 1850.134

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    In 2025 hydropower supplied 55.5% of domestic electricity generation, nuclear power 27.2% and photovoltaics 11.8%, and final electricity consumption was 57,970 GWh.6

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Hydropower output fell 22.5% in 2025 after a record 2024, and reservoirs stood at 46% in mid-July 2026, 16.4 points below the 20-year average; reservoirs can cover about 20% of winter-half demand.689

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and Lake Zurich reached its lowest level since 1951 on 19 August 2026.192021

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    The Federal Council offered CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans to farm businesses after the 2026 drought, and the contribution text sets a goal that domestic production covers at least 50% of food needs.334

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Heat-attributable deaths were 623 in June to August 2022, 542 in May to September 2023 and 326 in May to September 2024.1718

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    GDP grew 1.4% in 2025 and inflation was 0.2%, and the IMF assessed the debt brake as appropriate while noting that the shift to a low-carbon economy will raise spending needs.282930

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    About a third of species and nearly half of habitat types are threatened, and 7% of forest area was protected by 2022 against a federal goal of 10% by 2030.2527

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows that cuts hydropower and raises winter import dependence at the same time as farm and forest stress. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  2. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  3. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  4. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  5. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 31Swissvotes, University of Bern (ed.), Vote 663: Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security, popular vote of 18 June 2023 (59.07% yes; turnout 42.54%). Swissvotes, Bern, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://swissvotes.ch/vote/663.00, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only.back
  11. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  12. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  16. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 29Federal Council (ed.), “International Monetary Fund praises the resilience of the Swiss economy” (debt brake appropriate; spending pressure from pensions, health and the low-carbon transition). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 25 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/9CnjDEMpjWvY_tyiCF7az, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release.back
  21. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  22. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems and sectors at baseline

8 min read0 figures2 tables23 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Monitoring stations at a record low for the season, 1 April to 31 July 2026

≈20%

About one-fifth of stations. Eleven stations set historic lows in July. The Plateau and Jura were hit hardest.

Reported2026FOEN as reported1920

ENE · Energy

Change in domestic hydropower output, 2025 on 2024

−22.5%

37,485 GWh in 2025 after 48,337 GWh in 2024. Imports were 30,721 GWh and exports 30,700 GWh.

Reported2025SFOE energy statistics6

FOO · Food

Self-sufficiency rate of food supply

Not boundFSO and FOAG · blocker: official release not opened

The 2026 drought led the Federal Council to offer CHF 54 million in interest-free farm loans33. The self-sufficiency rate was not retrieved from a primary release.

Not boundn/aFOAG57

HLT · Health

Heat-attributable deaths, May to September 2024

326deaths

The 95% interval is 171 to 471. The estimate for 2023 was 542. Ticino was particularly affected in 2024.

Reported2024Swiss TPH monitoring17

BIO · Biodiversity

Forest area designated as protected area

7%

By 2022, against a federal goal of 10% by 2030. The national protected-area share of territory was not bound.

Reported2022FOEN and WSL Forest Report25

SYS · Cross-system

Insured damage from the Blatten rock and ice avalanche, 28 May 2025

255CHF million

About CHF 240 million fell within the insurers’ natural hazard pool. One death was reported.

Reported2026Insurers’ pool via press16 · VAW14

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATSource of Alpine rivers; 97% of people use safely managed drinking water; record-low flows and lakes in 2026.WAT → ENE · WAT ↔ FOOReported EQL 4
ENEHydropower 55.5% and nuclear 27.2% of generation; all gas imported; reservoirs low in July 2026.ENE ← WAT · ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOFarm and pasture stress in 2026; self-sufficiency rate not bound.FOO ← WAT, CLINot bound EQL 2
HLTHeat deaths 326 in 2024 and 542 in 2023; people aged 65+ outnumber under-20s.HLT ← CLIReported EQL 3
BIOAbout a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened; 7% of forest protected.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIGlacier loss, rock avalanche and drought in successive years; 2.8 °C above pre-industrial.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFRail, road and river navigation depend on water levels and stable slopes; wider networks not mapped.INF → allInferred EQL 2
FINStrong public finances per the IMF; insured hazard losses carried by a private pool.FIN ← CLIReported EQL 4
DATCyber and digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 1
AICData-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 1
MINMineral and metal supply chains not mapped in this edition.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 1
TRDElectricity trade with neighbours was nearly balanced over 2025: imports 30,721 GWh and exports 30,700 GWh.TRD → ENEReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound dry-year, reservoir and import stressdrought with low reservoirsPARTIAL
GS-01Waterrecord lows in 20261920drought; low flowsPARTIAL
GS-02Energyhydropower 55.5%, reservoirs 46%68winter supplyGOOD
GS-03Fooddrought loans33; rate not bounddry summersTHIN
GS-04Healthheat deaths and ageing172heatwavesPARTIAL
GS-05FinanceIMF Article IV28; hazard insurance16fiscal and insured lossPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentdrinking water and sanitation coverage23service strainGOOD
GS-07Climateglacier loss and warming41213heat, drought, slope failureGOOD
GS-08Disasternational risk analysis24rock avalanche; flood; power shortageGOOD
GS-09Infrastructurerail, road and river transport; not mappedlow river; slope failureTHIN
GS-10Citiesurban heat and cloudburst; not boundheat and surface runoffTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitythreatened species and forest protection2527habitat lossPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationglacier and snow monitoring used1321continuityPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mapped37systemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policyclimate act and electricity agreement3110coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed glacier and heat research1418translation to cantonsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  2. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  3. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  5. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  6. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  8. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  9. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  11. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  12. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 data portal: Switzerland (safely managed drinking water 97% and sanitation 100% in 2024; water stress 6.5% in 2023). UN-Water, 2025. Observation year 2024. https://sdg6data.org/country-or-area/Switzerland, accessed 2026-11-03. The portal does not name the source agency for each indicator.back
  14. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
  16. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  18. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) (ed.), Annual Report 2025. Swiss Confederation, Bern, 16 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Named in search results only; no figure is used. Source that would fill the cyber-incident gap.back
  21. 31Swissvotes, University of Bern (ed.), Vote 663: Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security, popular vote of 18 June 2023 (59.07% yes; turnout 42.54%). Swissvotes, Bern, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://swissvotes.ch/vote/663.00, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 10Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Electricity agreement Switzerland–EU (signed 2 March 2026; dispatch to Parliament March 2026). SFOE, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/en/electricity-agreement-switzerland-eu, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table14 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-CHE-CLI-001

    Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows

    Driver
    snow deficit, dry spring and heat across the Plateau and the Alps
    Exposure
    hydropower, river and lake levels, pastures, forests
    Vulnerability
    winter import dependence; thin groundwater monitoring22
    Capacity
    reservoir storage reported weekly8; reserve status not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → ENE, FOO, BIO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years
  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHE-CLI-002

    Rock, ice or debris avalanche above a settlement

    Driver
    rock failure, glacier load and permafrost change
    Exposure
    Alpine villages, roads, rail and power lines
    Vulnerability
    settlements in the run-out zone; a scenario of 5 million m³ is analysed24
    Capacity
    monitoring and evacuation worked at Blatten; one death outside the zone1415
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    annual
  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHE-HLT-003

    Heatwave load on health services and older residents

    Driver
    hotter summers and tropical nights
    Exposure
    cities and Ticino, which was particularly affected in 202417
    Vulnerability
    ageing population2
    Capacity
    heat-mortality monitoring runs to July 202617
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal
  4. InferredEQL 2RSK-CHE-ENE-004

    Prolonged winter power shortage

    Driver
    low reservoirs, import limits and plant outages
    Exposure
    households, industry, rail, health facilities
    Vulnerability
    winter demand above domestic generation
    Capacity
    national risk analysis treats a 30% shortfall for 12 weeks24
    Cascade
    ENE → all
    Horizon
    seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDClimate and Innovation Act sets net zero by 2050 and interim targets438
Monitoring and observationEXISTSfederal drought platform, hydrological and glacier monitoring used in this edition131922
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: MeteoSwiss and federal natural hazard portal warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational risk analysis with 44 hazard dossiers published in 202624
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSreservoir storage reported weekly and covering about 20% of winter-half demand8; winter reserve status not bound
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: cantonal and federal civil protection event reports · blocker: not reviewed
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: grid, rail and road operator restoration records for Blatten · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryEXISTSinsurers had paid more than 80% of insured sums for total losses about four months after Blatten16
AdaptationLISTEDadaptation strategy 2026–2031 with 30 areas of action adopted 28 October 2026, after evidence close32
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: federal and cantonal social-protection programme data · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceEXISTSprivate insurers’ natural hazard pool covered Blatten losses16
Institutional coordinationLISTEDConfederation, cantons, communes and operators named as joint actors in the national risk analysis24
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: grid, rail and dam asset registers · blocker: not mapped at public-safe resolution
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and civil protection workforce data · blocker: not reviewed
Research capacityEXISTSETH Zurich and WSL glacier, snow and slope research published1421
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  2. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  3. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  4. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only.back
  6. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  8. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security (Climate and Innovation Act), SR 814.310. Fedlex, Bern, adopted 30 September 2022; in force 1 January 2025 per [4]. Observation year 2022. Bibliographic details from memory; check against the Fedlex text.back
  10. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  12. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  13. 32POST-CLOSE, context only: Federal Council (ed.), “Le Conseil fédéral adopte la nouvelle stratégie d’adaptation et des mesures relatives à la canicule et à la sécheresse” (strategy 2026–2031; 30 areas of action; 56 measures). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 28 October 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/fb6zlfWM0Cst, accessed 2026-11-03. Published after evidence close.back
  14. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a snow-poor winter followed by a dry spring and summer, with low reservoir fill and low Rhine flow into the autumn
Analogues
the 2026 drought19208; summer 2003 Rhine flow at Basel20
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    snow deficit and dry spring lower rivers, lakes and groundwater

    2026

  2. 2

    WAT → ENE

    hydropower falls; 2025 output was down 22.5%

    2025 · 2026

  3. 3

    ENE → FIN

    import needs and exposure to foreign supply rise in winter

    not bound

  4. 4

    WAT → FOO

    pastures and farm liquidity strained; CHF 54 million in loans offered

    2026

  5. 5

    CLI → BIO

    forests and streams under stress; dead trees were 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region

    2018–202226

  6. 6

    CLI → HLT

    hot, dry summers raise heat deaths

    2022–2024

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01 would travel through Switzerland’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterSnow deficit and dry spring lower rivers, lakes and groundwater. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 1
02 Water to energyHydropower falls; 2025 output was down 22.5%. Analogue or source: 2025 · 2026.Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 2
03 Energy to financeImport needs and exposure to foreign supply rise in winter. Analogue or source: not bound.Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 3
04 Water to foodPastures and farm liquidity strained; CHF 54 million in loans offered. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 4
05 Climate to biodiversityForests and streams under stress; dead trees were 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region. Analogue or source: 2018–2022 [26].Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 5
06 Climate to healthHot, dry summers raise heat deaths. Analogue or source: 2022–2024.Edition CHE, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Switzerland 2026, scenario SCN-CHE-DRT-01 (2026); Switzerland 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  2. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  3. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  4. 26FOEN and WSL (eds.), Swiss National Forest Inventory, fifth survey (LFI5), interim results for survey years 2018–2022 (dead trees 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region). Bern and Birmensdorf, 9 September 2024. Observation years 2018–2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/de/schweizerisches-landesforstinventar-lfi, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

17 min read0 figures8 tables44 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRA Capital ReadinessNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Standards ProgressOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Academy CapabilityOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Index MeasurementNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Switzerland’s risk: Alpine ice and snow set the water, power and slope hazards together, and public finances are strong. Evidence is strongest for emissions, electricity and the Blatten event, and weakest for food self-sufficiency, groundwater storage and lifeline continuity.

CLI-001 · ENE-004 · WAT-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a dry summer, a hot week or a closed road. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how age and place change who carries a heatwave or a slope failure.

HLT-009 · CLI-007 · CLI-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured hazard losses sit with a private pool, and the IMF frames fiscal room1628. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation.

FIN-010 · CLI-007

NEXUS

Synthesis

Switzerland holds long weather, glacier and energy records, and thinner evidence on groundwater, reserves and service continuity. The 2027 programme should test the dry-year, reservoir and winter chain, bind a heat-mortality series for 2025 and bind the self-sufficiency rate.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Switzerland. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability have been developed?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests reveal?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat did the year establish, and what changes next?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
GCRI CanadaLead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Switzerlandnational pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groupsnational Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Switzerland’s water, power and slope hazards trace back to the same snow and glaciers. The baseline treats drought, hydropower and glacier loss as one coupled problem, not as separate sector issues.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Ice and snow set the whole system

A glacier too small to appear in most statistics buried most of a village in a day. Planning for slow warming without sudden slope failure leaves a gap.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

A village shows what a warming slope can do

Hydropower and nuclear power carry most generation, and reservoirs ran low in the 2026 summer. Winter imports and storage are the evidence still missing.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Electricity is a winter question

Older residents now outnumber the young, and heat deaths are monitored each summer. Every risk object in this edition is read through that lens.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Age sets the size of the buffer

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst Q1 2027 entry
E1National risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 7 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4NWG delivery registerno groups yetfirst monthly outputs
E5NNC capability registermembership opens in Q1 2027first contributions
E6NLC questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical stateenvironment preparedfirst sealed cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst correction cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • ADOPTED
  • SUBMITTED
  • UNDER REVIEW
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
Paris Agreement · second contribution, at least 65% below 1990 by 2035 as a 106.8 MtCO₂e budget for 2031–2035449UNFCCC · SwitzerlandnationalSUBMITTED 2025emissions pathway
Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security (SR 814.310)38ConfederationnationalIN FORCE 2025climate governance
CO₂ Act (SR 641.71)39ConfederationnationalIN FORCE · REVISION STATUS NOT VERIFIEDemissions measures
Electricity supply act adopted by popular vote on 9 June 202440ConfederationnationalADOPTED 2024 · NOT VERIFIEDrenewable electricity
Nuclear Energy Act (SR 732.1) and the proposal to lift the ban on new plants4161ConfederationnationalIN FORCE · AMENDMENT PENDINGpower mix
Water Protection Act (SR 814.20)42ConfederationnationalIN FORCEwater quality
Forest Act (SR 921.0)43ConfederationnationalIN FORCEforest protection
Nature and Heritage Protection Act (SR 451)44ConfederationnationalIN FORCEbiodiversity
Hydraulic Engineering Act (SR 721.100)45ConfederationnationalIN FORCEflood protection
Long-Term Climate Strategy 205059Federal CouncilnationalPUBLISHED 2021 · NOT VERIFIEDnet-zero pathway
Kunming-Montreal Framework48CBDinternationalADOPTED 202230by30
Sendai Framework47UNDRRinternationalADOPTED 2015disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

  • The Federal Council signed the electricity agreement with the European Union on 2 March 2026 and sent its dispatch to Parliament in March 202610
  • The Federal Council adopted a 2026–2031 adaptation strategy on 28 October 2026, after evidence close32
  • The national risk analysis was updated in 2026 with 44 hazard dossiers24

To watch in 2027

  • Parliamentary treatment of the proposal to lift the ban on new nuclear plants, reported with conflicting status at evidence close61
  • The new CO₂ Act for 2030 to 2040, announced for consultation34
  • Parliament’s decisions on drought aid for forests and farms33

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about Switzerland’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
Table 6.5Science and assessments
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
Lee and Romero (eds.)46assessment2023contextforcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)50assessment2024frameworknexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.51journal article2018frameworkcompound events
WMO and ECMWF European report35assessment2026supportsregional extremes
Vicedo-Cabrera et al.18journal article2023supportsheat deaths
Foundational Edition52Reports2026frameworkmethod
Global baseline53Reports2026frameworkglobal anchor
Table 6.6Institutional reports
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Second contribution4UNFCCC2025supportstargets
Climate Action Tracker assessment5Climate Action Tracker2025contextambition
Article IV press release28IMF2026contextfiscal
Energy policy review60IEA2023contextenergy
Climate risk analysis62FOEN2025contextrisk
Forest Report25FOEN and WSL2025supportsforests
Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Population release1Federal Statistical Office2025supportsprofile
Emissions release3FOEN2024supportsemissions
Energy statistics6SFOE2025supportspower
National risk analysis24Federal Office for Civil Protection2025supportshazards
Heat monitoring17Swiss TPH for the federal government2024supportshealth
Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Glacier collapse fact sheet14ETH Zurich VAW2025supportsslope hazard
Drought coverage192022FOEN and SLF as reported2026supportswater
Reservoir reports89SFOE as reported2026supportspower
Insured loss report16insurers’ pool as reported2026supportsfinance

Where the evidence agrees

  • Switzerland is warming faster than the global average and extremes are intensifying41135
  • Compound events raise risk beyond the sum of their parts51
  • Glaciers have lost about a quarter of their volume since 201513

Where it is unsettled

  • How much of the 2035 target will be met at home and how much abroad5
  • Whether and when new nuclear plants can be built61
  • How much heat mortality is recorded and reported each year17

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  2. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. From memory.back
  5. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security (Climate and Innovation Act), SR 814.310. Fedlex, Bern, adopted 30 September 2022; in force 1 January 2025 per [4]. Observation year 2022. Bibliographic details from memory; check against the Fedlex text.back
  6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Reduction of CO₂ Emissions (CO₂ Act), SR 641.71, as revised for the period to 2030. Fedlex, Bern, 2011 and later revisions. Observation year 2024. Bibliographic details from memory; revision status not verified.back
  7. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources, accepted in the popular vote of 9 June 2024. Fedlex, Bern, 2024. Observation year 2024. Date and vote from search results only; the SFOE page opened gave no result figure.back
  8. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Nuclear Energy Act, SR 732.1. Fedlex, Bern, 2003 and later amendments. Observation year 2003. Bibliographic details from memory.back
  9. 61UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Parliament (ed.), proceedings on the counter-proposal to the “Blackout stoppen” initiative and the lifting of the ban on new nuclear plants, 2026. Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. Press reports seen in search results conflicted on the latest vote; no status is asserted.back
  10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Protection of Waters (Water Protection Act), SR 814.20. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory.back
  11. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Forest (Forest Act), SR 921.0. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory.back
  12. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Protection of Nature and Cultural Heritage, SR 451. Fedlex, Bern, 1966. Observation year 1966. Bibliographic details from memory.back
  13. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Hydraulic Engineering, SR 721.100. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory.back
  14. 59UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Council (ed.), Switzerland’s Long-Term Climate Strategy 2050. Swiss Confederation, Bern, 2021. Observation year 2021. From memory.back
  15. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. From memory.back
  16. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. From memory.back
  17. 10Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Electricity agreement Switzerland–EU (signed 2 March 2026; dispatch to Parliament March 2026). SFOE, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/en/electricity-agreement-switzerland-eu, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 32POST-CLOSE, context only: Federal Council (ed.), “Le Conseil fédéral adopte la nouvelle stratégie d’adaptation et des mesures relatives à la canicule et à la sécheresse” (strategy 2026–2031; 30 areas of action; 56 measures). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 28 October 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/fb6zlfWM0Cst, accessed 2026-11-03. Published after evidence close.back
  19. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  20. 34A. Rösti, head of the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, interview statements on the 2030 climate target and a new CO₂ Act for 2030 to 2040, as reported by blue News, 6 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/rosti-switzerland-will-likely-not-meet-its-2030-climate-target-li.3553896, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a ministerial statement.back
  21. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  22. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. From memory.back
  23. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. From memory.back
  24. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. From memory.back
  25. 35World Meteorological Organization and ECMWF Copernicus (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (Europe the fastest-warming continent; net glacier mass loss in all European regions), press release of 29 April 2026. WMO, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/european-state-of-climate-2025-record-heatwaves-from-mediterranean-arctic-while-glaciers-shrink-and, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 52S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
  28. 53S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
  29. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 60UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Switzerland 2023 Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. From memory. Source for the winter import and flexibility context.back
  31. 62UNVERIFIED, not opened: FOEN (ed.), Climate Risk Analysis for Switzerland (UW-2502-E). FOEN, Bern, 2025. Observation year 2025. Named in search results only; used as context for the 2026–2031 adaptation strategy.back
  32. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  33. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  38. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  39. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  40. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  41. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  42. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  43. 11Federal Council (ed.), “Climate change particularly pronounced in Switzerland”, release on the Swiss Climate Scenarios CH2025 with MeteoSwiss and ETH Zurich (about +4.9 °C locally at 3 °C global warming; summer drought 44% more intense; zero-degree line up 550 m). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 4 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/de/newnsb/COnEkDbkoyff3Q632k9kk, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  44. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

6 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows cut hydropower, raise winter imports and strain farms and forests together?

    INI-CHE-WAT-01 · dry-year, reservoir and winter test; first output: dependency graph for the Rhine and Rhône basins.

  2. A-02

    How does winter electricity supply hold when reservoirs start low and nuclear and import options change?

    INI-CHE-ENE-02 · winter supply; first output: generation, storage and import register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are farms and pastures to drought and heat, and how much of the food supply is domestic?

    INI-CHE-FOO-03 · farm exposure; first output: self-sufficiency and drought-loss table.

  4. A-04

    How much surge capacity do health services hold for heat, and who among older residents is most exposed?

    INI-CHE-HLT-04 · heat and ageing; first output: surge baseline for five cantons.

  5. A-05

    Where do rock avalanches, floods and storms fall on uninsured losses and public budgets?

    INI-CHE-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-canton loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do glacier loss and permafrost change slope hazard above villages and lifelines?

    INI-CHE-CLI-01 · glaciers and slopes; first output: slope-hazard exposure note.

  7. A-07

    How would the electricity agreement with the European Union or a change to the nuclear ban alter system risk?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-CHE-WAT-01Dry-year, reservoir and winter test for the Rhine and Rhône basinsInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-CHE-ENE-02Winter electricity supply and storageInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-CHE-FOO-03Farm exposure to drought and heatInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-CHE-HLT-04Heat and ageing surge baselineInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-CHE-FIN-05Slope, flood and storm protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-CHE-WAT-01aReservoir and river dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-CHE-2027-01Dry-year and winter supply Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Switzerland is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Switzerland from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared. Its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, and nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CHE-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-CHE-2027-01 · Dry-year and winter supply Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mixINI-CHE-ENE-02winter supplyPUBLIC
ENE-004 · hydropower and reservoirsINI-CHE-ENE-02storage and importsPUBLIC
WAT-005 · drought 2026INI-CHE-WAT-01dry-year testPUBLIC
FOO-006 · drought and farmsINI-CHE-FOO-03farm exposurePUBLIC
CLI-007 · BlattenINI-CHE-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
HLT-009 · heat deathsINI-CHE-HLT-04heat and ageingPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-CHE-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather and climate bulletinsMeteoSwissdaily and monthlyCLI findings
Hydrological and drought platformFederal Office for the EnvironmentdailyWAT-005
Reservoir fillSwiss Federal Office of EnergyweeklyENE-004
Electricity and overall energy statisticsSwiss Federal Office of EnergyannualENE-003
Glacier and snow monitoringGLAMOS and SLFannual and seasonalCLI-008
Heat-mortality monitoringSwiss TPH for the federal governmentseasonalHLT-009
Greenhouse-gas inventoryFederal Office for the Environmentannual in AprilCLI-001
Population and economic seriesFederal Statistical Office and SECOannual and quarterlyFIN-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-CHE-001Record low lake and river levels in 202620CORROBORATEDWAT · ENE · FOOrisk object RSK-CHE-CLI-001
SIG-CHE-002Reservoirs 16.4 points below mean in July 20268CORROBORATEDENE · FINinitiative A-02
SIG-CHE-003Heat deaths 326 in 2024 and 542 in 202317CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIinitiative A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  2. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  3. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Switzerland is the source of Alpine rivers, and 2026 showed what a dry year does to them. Record-low rivers and lakes, thin groundwater monitoring and the absence of a national water law on measurement are the binding water risks. Drinking-water coverage is high.

≈20%

stations at a record low, Apr–Jul 202619

97%

safely managed drinking water, 202423

>80%

drinking water from larger underground sources22

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Low flowsone-fifth of stations at a record low; Rhine at Basel below summer 2003 in July1920Reported
LakesLake Zurich lowest since 1951; Lake Constance 27 cm below the previous low20Reported
Coverage97% safely managed drinking water and 100% sanitation in 202423Reported
Groundwaternational storage series and cantonal monitoring not harmonised22NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • CLI → WAT snow deficit and drought
  • WAT → FOO pasture and irrigation
  • WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • groundwater storage series
  • cantonal monitoring on a common basis

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Hydropower supplied 55.5% of domestic generation in 2025 and nuclear power 27.2%, and reservoirs ran low in the 2026 summer. All natural gas is imported. Winter balance and the import position were not bound.

55.5%

hydropower share of generation, 20256

46%

reservoir fill, mid-July 20268

7,948GWh

photovoltaic output, 20256

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixhydropower 55.5%, nuclear 27.2%, photovoltaics 11.8%6Reported
Demand57,970 GWh final consumption, up 0.8%6Reported
Tradeimports 30,721 GWh and exports 30,700 GWh6Reported
Winter balanceseasonal import need and reserve status for 2026/27 not retrieved60NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • ENE → FOO fuel and heating
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • BIO → ENE biomass

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • winter import need
  • reserve status for 2026/27

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Swiss farms and pastures felt the 2026 drought, and the federal response was a loan package. The self-sufficiency rate was not bound at evidence close, and the contribution text sets a goal of at least 50% domestic production.

54CHF m

interest-free farm loans offered, 202633

50%

goal for domestic share of food needs4

Not boundFOAG

self-sufficiency rate57

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drought aidCHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 202633Reported
ForestsCHF 17.5 million more for forest funding in 2027, subject to Parliament33Reported
Goaldomestic production to cover at least 50% of food needs4Reported
Self-sufficiencyofficial rate for the latest year not retrieved57NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rain and irrigation
  • ENE → FOO fuel and heating
  • CLI → FOO heat and drought

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • self-sufficiency rate
  • 2026 harvest and fodder outcome

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Switzerland is an ageing country, and heat is a recorded cause of death in summer. Monitoring runs for the federal government, and a figure for the 2025 season was not bound at evidence close.

326deaths

heat-attributable, 202417

542deaths

heat-attributable, 202317

1.81million

people aged 65+, provisional, 20252

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heat 2024326 deaths, 95% interval 171 to 471, Ticino particularly affected17Reported
Heat 2023542 deaths, 95% interval 364 to 71517Reported
Heat 2022623 deaths in June to August, 3.5% of all deaths, by a separate study18Reported
Heat 2025season estimate not on the monitoring page17NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths for 2025
  • surge capacity in health services

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

About a third of species and nearly half of habitat types are threatened, and forests face drought and dieback. Protected-area coverage of national territory was not bound at evidence close.

≈33%

of species threatened27

7%

of forest protected, 202225

10%

federal goal for forest by 203025

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Speciesabout a third of species threatened27Reported
Habitatsnearly half of habitat types threatened27Reported
Forest1.3 million hectares, just under a third of the country; 7% protected in 202225Reported
Diebackdead trees 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region, 2018–2022 interim26Reported
Protected areashare of national territory not retrieved58NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO drought and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • protected-area share of territory
  • final forest inventory results

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  2. 23UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 data portal: Switzerland (safely managed drinking water 97% and sanitation 100% in 2024; water stress 6.5% in 2023). UN-Water, 2025. Observation year 2024. https://sdg6data.org/country-or-area/Switzerland, accessed 2026-11-03. The portal does not name the source agency for each indicator.back
  3. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  4. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  5. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  7. 60UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Switzerland 2023 Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. From memory. Source for the winter import and flexibility context.back
  8. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  9. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  11. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  13. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  16. 26FOEN and WSL (eds.), Swiss National Forest Inventory, fifth survey (LFI5), interim results for survey years 2018–2022 (dead trees 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region). Bern and Birmensdorf, 9 September 2024. Observation years 2018–2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/de/schweizerisches-landesforstinventar-lfi, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 58UNVERIFIED, not opened: FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity indicators and action plan 2025–2030: protected areas as a share of national territory. FOEN, Bern, 2025. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the protected-area gap.back

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

10 min read0 figures12 tables8 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.DerivationCalculationResult
(1)Annual mean of the 2031–2035 budget106.8 ÷ 5≈ 21.4 MtCO₂e
(2)Hydropower plus nuclear share of generation, 202555.5 + 27.282.7 %
(3)Mean reservoir fill for mid-July (20-year)46 + 16.4≈ 62.4 %
(4)Net electricity imports, 202530,721 − 30,70021 GWh
Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
StrengthDefinition
STRONGa disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATEan effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAKan effect is plausible but not documented at national scale
Table A.3Status grammar
LabelRule
Reportedvalue as issued by its source, with year
Inferredreasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
EstimatedNexus analytical value with stated method
Scenarioconditional on stated assumptions
Expert inputstructured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID
MDL-CHE-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose
represent Switzerland as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family
graph-based system of systems
Inputs
the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method
expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation
none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty
qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity
national scale; not for canton or asset-level use
Reproducibility
strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID
NQ-CHE-2026-Q0-1
Type
baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy
pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned
62 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs
none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest
computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes
nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by
NQ-CHE-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

  1. 01

    source edition

  2. 02

    pinned citation

  3. 03

    finding

  4. 04

    page

  5. 05

    publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
ElementBaseline 2026Q1 2027
Sourcescited publications, pinned by editionqualified source bindings with versions
Analysisstated methods and editorial estimatestyped analysis specifications
ModelsNational Model v0 specificationmodel runs with receipts
Findingstwelve baseline findingsfindings re-bound to the cut
Reviewfive passes scheduledfive passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
IndicatorObservedReleasedCadenceNext release
Population2025Aug 2026annualAug 2027
GHG inventory2024Apr 2026annualApr 2027
Energy statistics2025Jun 2026annualJun 2027
Reservoir fillJul 2026Jul 2026weeklyweekly
Station recordsApr–Jul 2026Aug 2026periodicnot scheduled
Glacier volume2025Oct 2025annualautumn 2026
Heat deaths2024not datedseasonalnot scheduled
National risk analysis2025Feb 2026five-yearly2030
Forest Report20222025decadalnot scheduled
Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
SystemCoverageThinnest dimension
Climate forcingGOODregional rainfall and snow extremes
EnergyGOODwinter balance and storage
WaterPARTIALgroundwater storage
HealthPARTIALheat deaths in 2025
BiodiversityPARTIALprotected area on an official basis
FinancePARTIALweather damage in 2025
FoodTHINself-sufficiency and import routes
DigitalTHINdependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy in June 2026 as an extract from the overall energy statistics. Covers the 2025 balance, electricity production by source and gas supply. Role: binds ENE-003, ENE-004 and the gas statement.

EVD-CHE-001

Energy Consumption in Switzerland 20256

Issued by the Federal Office for Civil Protection in February 2026. Fourth edition, 44 hazard dossiers. Role: binds the hazard scenarios and the power-shortage risk object. Dossiers were not read in full.

EVD-CHE-002

Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025, risk report24

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
DimensionEVD-CHE-001EVD-CHE-002
Completenessall energy carriers and sectors reportedscenario values by hazard; dossiers not read in full
Timelinessabout six months after the yearabout one month after the update
Revisionbalance revised in the full publicationrefreshed every five years
Method transparencytables publicmethod report public
External validationofficial statistics under lawexpert workshops with about 265 contributors

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

  • FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 202554, forest area and loss
  • WHO and UNICEF JMP55, drinking-water and sanitation coverage
  • WSL damage database56, weather damage for 2025
  • Federal Office for Agriculture report and food balance57, self-sufficiency rate
  • MeteoSwiss annual climate bulletin36, national precipitation for 2025

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
GroupAreaItemsPassN/APending
D1Identity and scope8800
D2Source and data12912
D3Analysis and models12381
D4Findings and claims9801
D5Figures, tables, maps10622
D6Editorial and citations10802
D7Review and approval130013
D8Artefact and design12705
D9Registry and release9009

Publication gate

Conditions met
14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems
none recorded
Open conditions
reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs
first runs in Q1 2027
Maps
plates in Q2 2027
Waivers
none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
StatusWhat it means
ObservedMeasured directly and published by the source.
ReportedPublished statistics of an official or institutional source.
DeclaredStated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
EstimatedA Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
ModelledProduced by a stated model from cited inputs.
InferredReasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
ForecastA projection by the cited source.
SimulatedA simulation result under stated assumptions.
ScenarioA conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert inputExpert judgement, recorded with its basis.
CandidateProposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Evidence arrives from the pillarsFoundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealedOn the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembledThe edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turnAt the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opensA named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and depositedThe PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s siteOnly then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to StandardsMethod and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
TermMeaning
Baseline Editionthe inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+Bwater, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Couplinga typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gapthe share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladderLISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQLevidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cuta frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWGNational Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups
Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
AbbreviationExpansion
BABSFederal Office for Civil Protection, by its national-language acronym
CHFSwiss franc
ETHSwiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
FOENFederal Office for the Environment
FSOFederal Statistical Office
GLAMOSSwiss Glacier Monitoring Network
SFOESwiss Federal Office of Energy
SLFWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research
UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
VAWLaboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology at ETH Zurich
WSLSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
ItemAnnexContentsStatus
A.1Indicator definitionsthe baseline indicator set, with units and sourcesIN THIS EDITION
A.2Coupling strengthsthe twenty-cell matrix and its rationaleIN THIS EDITION
A.3Scenario specificationSCN-CHE-DRT-01 assumptions and signpostsIN THIS EDITION
A.4Capability placementsrung evidence for fifteen functionsIN THIS EDITION
A.5Model diagnosticsfirst runs and validationQ1 2027
A.6Sensitivity analysesinfluence of coupling strengthsQ2 2027
A.7Cantonal notesatlas cards for every cantonQ2 2027
A.8Review statementspass-by-pass review recordAT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, greenhouse-gas emissions in the national inventory

Construct
annual emissions of greenhouse gases reported in the national inventory, excluding land use and international aviation and maritime transport
Unit
MtCO₂e
Scope
calendar year, national
Source
Federal Office for the Environment release3
Revision
updated each April with data from the year before last
Known limits
differs from the contribution basis, which includes land use and reductions abroad

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  3. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Switzerland country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the official forest-area gap.back
  4. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Switzerland country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would cross-check the UN-Water portal values.back
  5. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL (ed.), Unwetterschadens-Datenbank: annual weather damage for 2025. WSL, Birmensdorf, 2026. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the weather-damage gap.back
  6. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  7. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: MeteoSwiss (ed.), Klimabulletin Jahr 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2026. Observation year 2025. The page was reached but its text did not render; the national precipitation total for 2025 is therefore not bound. Source that would fill that gap.back
  8. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

12 min read0 figures7 tables27 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Population9,127,100people31 Dec 2025Reported1
People aged 65 or over (provisional)1,811,000people2025Reported2
People under 20 (provisional)1,802,000people2025Reported2
Greenhouse-gas emissions, excl. land use40.1MtCO₂e2024Reported3
Reduction on 1990, excl. land use27.3%2024Reported3
Transport emissions13.4MtCO₂e2024Reported3
Emissions budget 2031–2035106.8MtCO₂e2025 contributionReported4
Hydropower share of domestic generation55.5%2025Reported6
Nuclear share of domestic generation27.2%2025Reported6
Photovoltaics output7,948GWh2025Reported6
Final electricity consumption57,970GWh2025Reported6
Reservoir fill, mid-July46%Jul 2026Reported8
Mean annual temperature above 1991–20201.2°C2025Reported12
Glacier volume lost in 2025≈3%2025Reported13
Heat-attributable deaths, May to September326deaths2024Reported17
People using safely managed drinking water97%2024Reported23
Forest area under protection7%2022Reported25
GDP growth1.4%2025Reported30
Food self-sufficiency rateNot bound%n/aNOT BOUND57
Heat-attributable deaths, 2025 seasonNot bounddeathsn/aNOT BOUND17
Protected area, share of national territoryNot bound%n/aNOT BOUND58

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • WAT
  • ENE
  • FOO
  • HLT
  • BIO
  • CLI
  • INF
  • FIN
  • TRD
  • MIN
Table B.3National source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Population release12national statisticsnational2025annualprofile
Emissions release3federal environment officenational2024annualCLI
Climate contribution45UNFCCC · trackernational2025periodicCLI
Energy statistics67federal energy officenational2025annualENE
Reservoir reports89federal energy office as reportednational2026weeklyENE
Drought records19202122federal office · research institutenational2026periodicWAT
Glacier and slope1314research institutesnational2025annualCLI
Insured loss16insurers’ pool as reportednational2026annualFIN
Heat monitoring1718research institute · journalnational2022–2024seasonalHLT
Forest and biodiversity252627federal office · research institutenational2018–2025decadalBIO
Risk analysis24civil protection officenational2025five-yearlySYS

B.3Regional reading, Switzerland by canton

Map plates for every canton follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected regional figures9171920

≈20%

stations at a record low for the season, Apr–Jul 2026

394.97m

Lake Constance level, 11 Aug 2026

42.7%

reservoir fill, 9 Jul 2026

326deaths

heat-attributable, May to Sep 2024

Table B.4Regional reading, Switzerland by canton
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
Plateau and Juradrought, heat, low rivers and lakeswater, farms, urban lifelinesrecord lows 20261920
Rhine basin and Basellow flow, river navigationwater, logisticsRhine flow at Basel, July 202620
Alps and Valaisglacier loss, rock avalanche, reservoirsenergy, settlementsBlatten 202514; reservoirs89
Ticino and southern Alpsheat, low snow, low reservoirshealth, energyheat deaths 202417; reservoirs9
Graubünden and eastern Alpslow snow, low reservoirs, slope failureenergy, villagesreservoir position9; slope scenario24
Lake Constance and Lake Zurichrecord-low lake levelswater, shippinglake levels 202620

B.4Atlas card, Blatten (canton of Valais)

  • village
  • Lötschental
  • glacier collapse
  • rock and ice avalanche
Systems in view
roads, power, housing, water and farms
Defining event
collapse of the Birch Glacier on 28 May 2025 under about 3 million m³ of rock debris14
Couplings
CLI → WAT → INF; INF → FIN
Capability evidence
restoration and reconstruction records not bound
Gaps
public reconstruction cost; recovery time; share of cost not insured
Agenda items
A-05

The glacier held about 5 million m³ of ice in 2023, and about 3 million m³ was affected when it failed under rock debris.

ICE

A small glacier under load

Residents were ordered out on 19 May. One person who was outside the evacuation zone died [15].

PEOPLE

The village was evacuated first

Insured damage was put at CHF 255 million, of which about CHF 240 million fell within the insurers’ pool. Public reconstruction cost was not retrieved.

LOSSES

CHF 255 million insured

B.5Switzerland system card

The card through which Switzerland appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Switzerland system card
SystemBaseline stateCoupling to watchCoverage
Waterrecord-low rivers and lakes in 2026dry year into hydropowerPARTIAL
Energyhydropower 55.5%; all gas importedwinter supply and storageGOOD
Fooddrought loans; rate not bounddrought into farm liquidityTHIN
Healthageing; heat deaths 326 in 2024heat load on older peoplePARTIAL
Biodiversitya third of species threatenedforest stress and habitat lossPARTIAL

Context

Archetype
federal, mountainous, high-income economy with Alpine hydropower and large electricity trade
Population
9.13 million (2025)1
Trade
electricity imports and exports were nearly equal in 20256
Hazard
glacier and rock collapse, Blatten 202514

Switzerland’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

EUROPE REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Swiss evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Switzerland is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site21 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
NQ-CHE-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  3. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  7. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
  8. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 data portal: Switzerland (safely managed drinking water 97% and sanitation 100% in 2024; water stress 6.5% in 2023). UN-Water, 2025. Observation year 2024. https://sdg6data.org/country-or-area/Switzerland, accessed 2026-11-03. The portal does not name the source agency for each indicator.back
  11. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  12. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release.back
  13. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  14. 58UNVERIFIED, not opened: FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity indicators and action plan 2025–2030: protected areas as a share of national territory. FOEN, Bern, 2025. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the protected-area gap.back
  15. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 7Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss energy consumption rose slightly in 2025”, reporting SFOE figures (final energy consumption 777,870 TJ; renewables 27.5% of final energy consumption). swissinfo.ch, 18 June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/energy-consumption-in-switzerland-rose-slightly-in-2025/91610187, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the renewable share differs from another reported basis and is not used as a finding.back
  17. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  18. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  19. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  20. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  22. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  24. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 26FOEN and WSL (eds.), Swiss National Forest Inventory, fifth survey (LFI5), interim results for survey years 2018–2022 (dead trees 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region). Bern and Birmensdorf, 9 September 2024. Observation years 2018–2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/de/schweizerisches-landesforstinventar-lfi, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

18 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

C.162 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  2. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  3. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  4. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  6. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss energy consumption rose slightly in 2025”, reporting SFOE figures (final energy consumption 777,870 TJ; renewables 27.5% of final energy consumption). swissinfo.ch, 18 June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/energy-consumption-in-switzerland-rose-slightly-in-2025/91610187, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the renewable share differs from another reported basis and is not used as a finding.
  8. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  9. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  10. 10Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Electricity agreement Switzerland–EU (signed 2 March 2026; dispatch to Parliament March 2026). SFOE, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/en/electricity-agreement-switzerland-eu, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11Federal Council (ed.), “Climate change particularly pronounced in Switzerland”, release on the Swiss Climate Scenarios CH2025 with MeteoSwiss and ETH Zurich (about +4.9 °C locally at 3 °C global warming; summer drought 44% more intense; zero-degree line up 550 m). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 4 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/de/newnsb/COnEkDbkoyff3Q632k9kk, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
  13. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  14. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4
  16. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  18. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
  22. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 data portal: Switzerland (safely managed drinking water 97% and sanitation 100% in 2024; water stress 6.5% in 2023). UN-Water, 2025. Observation year 2024. https://sdg6data.org/country-or-area/Switzerland, accessed 2026-11-03. The portal does not name the source agency for each indicator. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  24. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter). Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26FOEN and WSL (eds.), Swiss National Forest Inventory, fifth survey (LFI5), interim results for survey years 2018–2022 (dead trees 7.2% to 15.4% of trees by region). Bern and Birmensdorf, 9 September 2024. Observation years 2018–2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/de/schweizerisches-landesforstinventar-lfi, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 5, chapter 8
  27. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  28. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  29. 29Federal Council (ed.), “International Monetary Fund praises the resilience of the Swiss economy” (debt brake appropriate; spending pressure from pensions, health and the low-carbon transition). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 25 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/9CnjDEMpjWvY_tyiCF7az, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2
  30. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
  31. 31Swissvotes, University of Bern (ed.), Vote 663: Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security, popular vote of 18 June 2023 (59.07% yes; turnout 42.54%). Swissvotes, Bern, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://swissvotes.ch/vote/663.00, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3
  32. 32POST-CLOSE, context only: Federal Council (ed.), “Le Conseil fédéral adopte la nouvelle stratégie d’adaptation et des mesures relatives à la canicule et à la sécheresse” (strategy 2026–2031; 30 areas of action; 56 measures). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 28 October 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/fb6zlfWM0Cst, accessed 2026-11-03. Published after evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34A. Rösti, head of the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, interview statements on the 2030 climate target and a new CO₂ Act for 2030 to 2040, as reported by blue News, 6 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/rosti-switzerland-will-likely-not-meet-its-2030-climate-target-li.3553896, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a ministerial statement. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35World Meteorological Organization and ECMWF Copernicus (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (Europe the fastest-warming continent; net glacier mass loss in all European regions), press release of 29 April 2026. WMO, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/european-state-of-climate-2025-record-heatwaves-from-mediterranean-arctic-while-glaciers-shrink-and, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: MeteoSwiss (ed.), Klimabulletin Jahr 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2026. Observation year 2025. The page was reached but its text did not render; the national precipitation total for 2025 is therefore not bound. Source that would fill that gap.
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) (ed.), Annual Report 2025. Swiss Confederation, Bern, 16 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Named in search results only; no figure is used. Source that would fill the cyber-incident gap. Cited in chapter 3
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security (Climate and Innovation Act), SR 814.310. Fedlex, Bern, adopted 30 September 2022; in force 1 January 2025 per [4]. Observation year 2022. Bibliographic details from memory; check against the Fedlex text. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Reduction of CO₂ Emissions (CO₂ Act), SR 641.71, as revised for the period to 2030. Fedlex, Bern, 2011 and later revisions. Observation year 2024. Bibliographic details from memory; revision status not verified. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources, accepted in the popular vote of 9 June 2024. Fedlex, Bern, 2024. Observation year 2024. Date and vote from search results only; the SFOE page opened gave no result figure. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Nuclear Energy Act, SR 732.1. Fedlex, Bern, 2003 and later amendments. Observation year 2003. Bibliographic details from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Protection of Waters (Water Protection Act), SR 814.20. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Forest (Forest Act), SR 921.0. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on the Protection of Nature and Cultural Heritage, SR 451. Fedlex, Bern, 1966. Observation year 1966. Bibliographic details from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Hydraulic Engineering, SR 721.100. Fedlex, Bern, 1991. Observation year 1991. Bibliographic details from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  52. 52S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  53. 53S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  54. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Switzerland country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the official forest-area gap.
  55. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Switzerland country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would cross-check the UN-Water portal values.
  56. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL (ed.), Unwetterschadens-Datenbank: annual weather damage for 2025. WSL, Birmensdorf, 2026. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the weather-damage gap.
  57. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
  58. 58UNVERIFIED, not opened: FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity indicators and action plan 2025–2030: protected areas as a share of national territory. FOEN, Bern, 2025. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the protected-area gap. Cited in chapter 8
  59. 59UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Council (ed.), Switzerland’s Long-Term Climate Strategy 2050. Swiss Confederation, Bern, 2021. Observation year 2021. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  60. 60UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Switzerland 2023 Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. From memory. Source for the winter import and flexibility context. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  61. 61UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Parliament (ed.), proceedings on the counter-proposal to the “Blackout stoppen” initiative and the lifting of the ban on new nuclear plants, 2026. Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. Press reports seen in search results conflicted on the latest vote; no status is asserted. Cited in chapter 6
  62. 62UNVERIFIED, not opened: FOEN (ed.), Climate Risk Analysis for Switzerland (UW-2502-E). FOEN, Bern, 2025. Observation year 2025. Named in search results only; used as context for the 2026–2031 adaptation strategy. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Switzerland Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
CHENR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-CHE-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. CHE edition Reports Switzerland 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; CHE is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.
ReportsContribute

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