- Switzerland 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Annual mean of the 2031–2035 budget | 106.8 ÷ 5 | ≈ 21.4 MtCO₂e |
| (2) | Hydropower plus nuclear share of generation, 2025 | 55.5 + 27.2 | 82.7 % |
| (3) | Mean reservoir fill for mid-July (20-year) | 46 + 16.4 | ≈ 62.4 % |
| (4) | Net electricity imports, 2025 | 30,721 − 30,700 | 21 GWh |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-CHE-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Switzerland as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for canton or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-CHE-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 62 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-CHE-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2025 | Aug 2026 | annual | Aug 2027 |
| GHG inventory | 2024 | Apr 2026 | annual | Apr 2027 |
| Energy statistics | 2025 | Jun 2026 | annual | Jun 2027 |
| Reservoir fill | Jul 2026 | Jul 2026 | weekly | weekly |
| Station records | Apr–Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | periodic | not scheduled |
| Glacier volume | 2025 | Oct 2025 | annual | autumn 2026 |
| Heat deaths | 2024 | not dated | seasonal | not scheduled |
| National risk analysis | 2025 | Feb 2026 | five-yearly | 2030 |
| Forest Report | 2022 | 2025 | decadal | not scheduled |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | GOOD | regional rainfall and snow extremes |
| Energy | GOOD | winter balance and storage |
| Water | PARTIAL | groundwater storage |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat deaths in 2025 |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | protected area on an official basis |
| Finance | PARTIAL | weather damage in 2025 |
| Food | THIN | self-sufficiency and import routes |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy in June 2026 as an extract from the overall energy statistics. Covers the 2025 balance, electricity production by source and gas supply. Role: binds ENE-003, ENE-004 and the gas statement.
EVD-CHE-001
Energy Consumption in Switzerland 20256
Issued by the Federal Office for Civil Protection in February 2026. Fourth edition, 44 hazard dossiers. Role: binds the hazard scenarios and the power-shortage risk object. Dossiers were not read in full.
EVD-CHE-002
Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025, risk report24
| Dimension | EVD-CHE-001 | EVD-CHE-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all energy carriers and sectors reported | scenario values by hazard; dossiers not read in full |
| Timeliness | about six months after the year | about one month after the update |
| Revision | balance revised in the full publication | refreshed every five years |
| Method transparency | tables public | method report public |
| External validation | official statistics under law | expert workshops with about 265 contributors |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
- FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 202554, forest area and loss
- WHO and UNICEF JMP55, drinking-water and sanitation coverage
- WSL damage database56, weather damage for 2025
- Federal Office for Agriculture report and food balance57, self-sufficiency rate
- MeteoSwiss annual climate bulletin36, national precipitation for 2025
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| BABS | Federal Office for Civil Protection, by its national-language acronym |
| CHF | Swiss franc |
| ETH | Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich |
| FOEN | Federal Office for the Environment |
| FSO | Federal Statistical Office |
| GLAMOS | Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network |
| SFOE | Swiss Federal Office of Energy |
| SLF | WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| VAW | Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology at ETH Zurich |
| WSL | Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-CHE-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Cantonal notes | atlas cards for every canton | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, greenhouse-gas emissions in the national inventory
- Construct
- annual emissions of greenhouse gases reported in the national inventory, excluding land use and international aviation and maritime transport
- Unit
- MtCO₂e
- Scope
- calendar year, national
- Source
- Federal Office for the Environment release3
- Revision
- updated each April with data from the year before last
- Known limits
- differs from the contribution basis, which includes land use and reductions abroad
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
- 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Switzerland country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the official forest-area gap.back
- 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Switzerland country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would cross-check the UN-Water portal values.back
- 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL (ed.), Unwetterschadens-Datenbank: annual weather damage for 2025. WSL, Birmensdorf, 2026. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the weather-damage gap.back
- 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: MeteoSwiss (ed.), Klimabulletin Jahr 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2026. Observation year 2025. The page was reached but its text did not render; the national precipitation total for 2025 is therefore not bound. Source that would fill that gap.back
- 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back