Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the food baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. About 645 million in 2025, 7.8% of the world population, with Africa now the largest share.¹

   How many people face hunger?Reported

2. Yes, slowly. 25.8% were moderately or severely food insecure in 2025, down from 28.7% in 2020.¹

   Is food insecurity falling?Reported

3. About 2.69 billion could not in 2025, and the share is rising in Africa at 66.6%.¹

   Can people afford healthy diets?Reported

4. About 266 million people in 47 countries and territories, with famine confirmed in Gaza and the Sudan in 2025.⁴¹

   How severe are the acute crises?Reported

5. Fertiliser and fuel supply and prices, through Gulf exports and the Strait of Hormuz.¹⁴

   What did the 2026 conflict change for farms?Reported

6. Yes. The FAO index was 2.5% above a year earlier in August 2026.⁴⁸

   Are food prices rising?Reported

7. Output is forecast at the second largest on record, with ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes and Black Sea routes flagged as a risk.⁴⁹

   Is there enough grain?Reported

8. A harvest shortfall that coincides with high input costs and constrained exports. SCN-GS03-HRV-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

In 2025, hunger affected 309 million people in Africa, 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.

For the first time Africa hosts the largest number of hungry people. One in five Africans faced hunger in 2025, against 6.0% in Asia and 4.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2030 the SOFI scenarios place 56% of those facing hunger in Africa¹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is food risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry food shocks into other systems?
• Which food capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The food-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their food content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → FOO → FIN

   A strong El Niño disrupts rainfall and heat; yields fall, and import bills and food prices rise.

   Inferred 2026 El Niño outlook⁸⁶

2. 02

   ENE → FOO

   Gas, fuel and fertiliser price shocks reach farm costs, yields and food prices.

   Reported 2026 Gulf disruption¹⁴²

3. 03

   TRD → FOO

   A constrained export route cuts grain trade and shifts importers to other origins.

   Reported 2026 Black Sea constraints³¹³

4. 04

   FOO → HLT

   Unaffordable diets and acute crises raise malnutrition.

   Reported 2025 nutrition crises⁴

5. 05

   FOO → BIO → FOO

   Land conversion and overfishing erode the base that supplies food.

   Reported marine stocks¹²; degraded land²²

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

In 2025, hunger affected 309 million people in Africa, 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Implication

For the first time Africa hosts the largest number of hungry people. One in five Africans faced hunger in 2025, against 6.0% in Asia and 4.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2030 the SOFI scenarios place 56% of those facing hunger in Africa¹.

What would move it

The next SOFI report, the 2026 El Niño lean season and the path of fertiliser prices would each move this finding.

2.2Food

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001

   An estimated 7.8% of the world population faced hunger in 2025, about 645 million people (range 608 to 696 million), down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022, but about 50 million more people than in 2015.¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

   Africa now hosts the largest number of hungry people: 309 million in 2025, against 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, or 20.0%, 6.0% and 4.8% of their populations.¹

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003

   About 2.1 billion people (25.8%) were moderately or severely food insecure in 2025, down from 27.1% in 2024 and 28.7% in 2020, and 778.6 million (9.5%) were severely food insecure.¹

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

   FAO forecast in early September 2026 that world cereal output would be 2,980 million tonnes, 2.0% below the 2025 record and still the second largest on record, with 2026/27 trade at 509.3 million tonnes and Black Sea export routes flagged as a risk; USDA stocks and Russian wheat exports are NOT BOUND at the close.⁴⁹

2.3Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

   About 2.69 billion people (32.7%) could not afford a healthy diet in 2025, down from 2.97 billion in 2021, but the share rose to 66.6% in Africa, and the global cost of a healthy diet rose to 4.28 PPP dollars from 2.94 in 2017.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011

   WHO estimates 866 million foodborne illnesses and 1.52 million deaths in 2021, with a productivity and medical cost of USD 310 billion a year.⁹

2.4Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

   About 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, 22.9% of the analysed population, with famine confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and the Sudan; the total mainly reflects fewer countries analysed than in 2024.⁴¹

2.5Trade

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006

   Export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz fell below 10% of pre-conflict levels by early March 2026; up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers and 30 to 35% of urea exports normally come from or transit the Gulf, and there are no internationally coordinated fertiliser reserves.¹⁴

2.6Finance

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier and 1.9% above July; wheat prices were 15.0% above a year earlier and maize prices rose 2.5% in the month.⁴⁸

2.7Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

   WMO forecasts a near-100% probability that El Niño persists through December 2026 to February 2027; its effect on 2027 harvests and on the following lean season is NOT BOUND at the close.⁸

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010

   Agrifood systems emitted 16.5 Gt CO2eq in 2023, 32% of anthropogenic emissions, against 18 Gt and 34% for 2015 in the EDGAR-FOOD estimate and a range of 21 to 37% in the IPCC assessment.²¹¹⁰²⁰

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an El Niño harvest shortfall that coincides with high fertiliser and freight costs and constrained Black Sea exports, hitting import-dependent low-income countries as humanitarian funding falls. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS03-TRD-001

   Constrained grain and fertiliser trade routes

   Driver

   conflict-related disruption to Black Sea shipping and to Gulf fertiliser exports³¹⁴

   Exposure

   import-dependent economies and farmers who rely on imported nitrogen

   Vulnerability

   few alternative routes; no coordinated fertiliser reserves¹⁴

   Capacity

   grain ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes forecast for 2026/27; alternative origins⁴⁹

   Cascade

   TRD → FOO, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS03-CLI-002

   Concurrent harvest shortfalls under a strong El Niño

   Driver

   El Niño rainfall and heat anomalies; meandering jet streams raise the odds of concurrent low yields⁸¹¹

   Exposure

   rainfed and import-dependent regions, and the following lean season (not bound at close)

   Vulnerability

   models underestimate concurrent losses¹¹; each degree of warming lowers yields of major crops¹⁷

   Capacity

   stocks; irrigation; early warning; adapted varieties

   Cascade

   CLI → FOO → FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS03-GOV-003

   Protracted conflict and shrinking humanitarian funding

   Driver

   conflict, weather extremes, high prices and falling aid⁴⁵

   Exposure

   ten countries hold about two thirds of acute food insecurity⁴

   Vulnerability

   famine risk in four contexts; displaced people most affected¹⁸⁵

   Capacity

   anticipatory action; humanitarian assistance; national safety nets

   Cascade

   GOV → FOO, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS03-HLT-004

   Animal disease and foodborne hazards on global supply chains

   Driver

   persistent avian influenza in wild birds and poultry²⁵; contamination along long chains⁹

   Exposure

   poultry and egg supply; traded fresh produce and animal products

   Vulnerability

   uneven surveillance; trade restrictions that go beyond risk²⁵

   Capacity

   surveillance; biosecurity; Codex standards¹⁹

   Cascade

   HLT → FOO, TRD

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for food at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a strong El Niño that cuts yields in several regions while fertiliser, fuel and freight costs stay high and one major export route stays constrained

Analogues

the 2026 Gulf and Black Sea disruptions¹⁴³; the El Niño outlook⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   ENE → FOO

   fertiliser and fuel costs stay high; farmers cut input use

   2026

2. 2

   CLI → FOO

   rainfall and heat anomalies lower yields in several regions

   2026

3. 3

   TRD → FOO

   export availability falls; importers compete for other origins

   2026

4. 4

   FOO → FIN

   import bills and domestic food prices rise

   2025 · 2026

5. 5

   FOO → HLT

   diet quality falls and acute malnutrition rises in the lean season

   2025

6. 6

   GOV → FOO

   humanitarian need grows as funding falls

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01 would travel through Global Food and Agrifood Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Food 2026, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01 (2026); Global Food 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for food. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers food assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s food and agrifood systems and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; statistical releases; peer-reviewed crop, climate and food-system literature; regulator texts

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the publication site blocked access, and application dates were not checked. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2019/6 on veterinary medicinal products, Official Journal of the European Union, 2019, cited from memory; the 3 September 2026 date of the antimicrobial import requirements comes from the opened FAO Food Price Index release [2]. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: WTO, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (1994), cited from memory. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 1994. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22000:2018, Food safety management systems: requirements for any organisation in the food chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4 (December 2022), cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gaupp, F. et al., Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure, Nature Climate Change 10, 54 to 57, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Willett, W. et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet 393, 447 to 492, 2019, cited from memory; the journal site blocked access. Elsevier. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers, Science 360, 987 to 992, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Springmann, M. et al., Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature 562, 519 to 525, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bezner Kerr, R. et al., Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products, in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 5. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCCD (ed.), Global Land Outlook, second edition. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Food Systems Summit +4 stocktake (2025), cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, and monthly commodity price data (landing page opened, release of 3 November 2026; the outlook report itself was not opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. F-01

   How would a harvest shortfall under a strong El Niño, with high fertiliser and freight costs, travel through trade, prices and health at once?

   INI-GS03-HRV-01 · harvest shortfall under high input costs; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. F-02

   How far did fertiliser use and farm margins fall after the first half of 2026, and where?

   INI-GS03-INP-02 · fertiliser and fuel dependence; first output: input-use and margin table by region.

3. F-03

   Where do diet cost, income and food price shocks combine to put healthy diets out of reach?

   INI-GS03-DIE-03 · diet affordability and nutrition; first output: affordability overlay for twelve countries.

4. F-04

   Which cereal and oilseed export routes lack workable alternatives when one route is constrained?

   INI-GS03-ROU-04 · trade routes and chokepoints; first output: route dependence map.

5. F-05

   Which warnings of famine risk led to anticipatory action, and which did not?

   INI-GS03-EWN-05 · early warning and anticipatory action; first output: warning-to-action register.

6. F-06

   How much food is lost or wasted, on one current basis, and where?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: basis note.

7. F-07

   How do heat, rainfall and animal disease change supply together?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. F-08

   Which food-system capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

   Food capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The food edition reads national food chapters, regional crop, trade and nutrition evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National food chapters

   food system of each national edition

   PLANNED · national baselines

2. 02

   Crop, trade and nutrition evidence

   shared trade routes, crop regions and food-crisis contexts

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Food sector model

   the global food and agrifood system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB Global Systems · GS-01 Water · GS-02 Energy · GS-04 Health and One Health

   PLANNED · sector baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Food Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS03-2027-01 · Harvest shortfall Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Food and water

Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater. Irrigated land is more productive than rainfed land, and rainfall shortfalls reach supply quickly, as the 2026 monsoon showed in India.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Food and energy

Food depends on energy for fertiliser, fuel, freight, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Gulf disruption showed that the link runs through nitrogen fertiliser and freight as well as fuel.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Food and health

Diets drive health. The cost of a healthy diet, acute crises, contaminated food and animal disease all reach people through food.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Food and nature

Food production is the largest direct pressure on land and a major source of emissions. Nature is also the base that supplies food: fish stocks, soils and pollinators.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Food security, trade and extremes

Food security now depends on three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows: trade routes, extreme weather and the capacity to respond to crises.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Food Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS03-FOOD · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global food and agrifood system and its couplings to water, energy, health and biodiversity

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 food annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• FAO FPMA tool: national retail prices for countries in crisis
• GRFC²⁸: country tables behind the summary
• FAO and trade analysts¹⁴: fertiliser volumes after March 2026
• USDA¹³: regional production tables for the 2026 El Niño season

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: prevalence of undernourishment

Construct

share and number of people whose habitual food consumption is insufficient to provide the dietary energy for an active, healthy life

Unit

share and number of people

Method

FAO model combining national food supply, distribution and requirements

Source

SOFI 2026¹

Uncertainty

world range 608 to 696 million people in 2025

Known limits

measures energy intake only; does not capture diet quality, access or short shocks

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• FOO
• HLT
• CLI
• FIN
• TRD
• GOV
• BIO
• ENE
• WAT
• INF

B.3Regional reading: food across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Route card: Black Sea cereal exports

• route
• cereals
• sunflower oil
• importers

Systems in view

grains, oilseeds, shipping, importing households

Defining events

constrained Black Sea shipping and export capacity through alternative routes in 2026³²

Couplings

TRD → FOO supply; FOO → FIN prices; FOO → HLT diets

Capability evidence

importers shifting to other origins²

Gaps

alternative route capacity; storage at ports

Agenda items

F-01 · F-04

B.5How countries appear in the food edition

Countries enter the food edition through the food chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
7. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, and monthly commodity price data (landing page opened, release of 3 November 2026; the outlook report itself was not opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
11. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
12. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 7
14. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
20. 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
21. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the publication site blocked access, and application dates were not checked. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2019/6 on veterinary medicinal products, Official Journal of the European Union, 2019, cited from memory; the 3 September 2026 date of the antimicrobial import requirements comes from the opened FAO Food Price Index release [2]. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22000:2018, Food safety management systems: requirements for any organisation in the food chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: WTO, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (1994), cited from memory. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 1994. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4 (December 2022), cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bezner Kerr, R. et al., Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products, in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 5. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Willett, W. et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet 393, 447 to 492, 2019, cited from memory; the journal site blocked access. Elsevier. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers, Science 360, 987 to 992, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Springmann, M. et al., Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature 562, 519 to 525, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gaupp, F. et al., Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure, Nature Climate Change 10, 54 to 57, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Food Systems Summit +4 stocktake (2025), cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCCD (ed.), Global Land Outlook, second edition. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
49. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version