Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Africa’s share of people facing hunger, 2025	309 ÷ 645	≈48%
(2)	Severe share of moderate or severe food insecurity, 2025	9.5 ÷ 25.8	≈37%
(3)	Implied 2025 world cereal output, from the 2026 forecast and the stated fall of 61.1 million tonnes	2,980 + 61.1	≈3,041 million tonnes
(4)	Rise in the cost of a healthy diet, 2017 to 2025	4.28 ÷ 2.94	≈1.46 times

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Food Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS03-FOOD · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global food and agrifood system and its couplings to water, energy, health and biodiversity
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

6strong

documented within one season

9moderate

documented, buffered

5weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 food annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Food Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Hunger and food insecurity	2025	Jul 2026	annual	next SOFI
Acute food insecurity	2025	Apr 2026; mid-year Sep 2026	annual and mid-year	next GRFC
Food prices	2026	Oct 2026	monthly	monthly
Cereal supply and stocks	2026	Oct 2026	monthly	monthly
Fertiliser and fuel trade	2026	Mar 2026	one-off	not bound after March
El Niño outlook	2026	Aug 2026	periodic	next WMO update
Foodborne disease burden	2021	2026	periodic	next WHO estimate
Fisheries and aquaculture	2024	Jun 2026	biennial	2028
Agrifood emissions	2023	Oct 2025	annual	next FAOSTAT update
Avian influenza	2026	Oct 2026	monthly	monthly

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Hunger and diets	GOOD	subnational detail
Acute food crises	GOOD	consistent country coverage
Prices and stocks	GOOD	local and retail prices
Inputs and fertiliser	PARTIAL	prices and use after mid-2026
Climate and yields	PARTIAL	El Niño yield effects by region
Food safety	PARTIAL	incident data on a common basis
Loss and waste	THIN	a current common global basis
Resilience	PARTIAL	tested capabilities beyond stocks and aid

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Fertiliser prices and farm input use after the first half of 2026	World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026⁴⁶; FAO and national statistics	only the landing page of the outlook was opened; the FAO note¹⁴ covers March 2026 only
Share of global urea and ammonia trade that resumed after March 2026	FAO and trade analysts¹⁴	not published in the documents opened; no estimate made
Crop yield effects of the 2026 El Niño, by region	national forecasts; FAO Crop Prospects; WMO⁸	the season is under way and outcomes are not yet reported
Food loss and waste on a current common basis	UNEP Food Waste Index²⁶; FAO Food Loss Index	the UNEP report was not opened; only the IPCC range of 25 to 30% of food produced²⁰ is used, and it is older
Ten-year baseline for production, prices and emissions	OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035²⁷	the report was not opened; no figure used
Full Global Report on Food Crises 2026 tables	GRFC 2026 full report²⁸	the report file was not retrievable; totals come from the summary and from SOFI⁴¹
Famine classification detail for Gaza, the Sudan and Somalia	IPC analyses⁴⁴	the IPC site blocked automated access; the summary in Hunger Hotspots is used¹⁸
Export restrictions on food and fertiliser in 2026	IFPRI tracker⁴³; AMIS Market Monitor⁴⁵	the tracker page returned no content and the monitor page was blocked
Pollination and soil contributions to yields, global series	IPBES³⁶; FAO soil assessments	not opened; no figure used
Pesticide, antimicrobial and nutrient pollution loads, by region	FAO, UNEP, national agencies	no consolidated global series found at evidence close
Cold-chain and storage capacity in importing regions	FAO; national ministries	not published on a common basis
Retail and local food prices for the countries in acute crisis	FAO FPMA tool; national statistics offices	not retrieved; only international prices are used
IMF growth assumptions behind the SOFI 2030 scenarios	IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026⁴⁷	access to the publication was denied; the assumptions are quoted only as reported in SOFI¹
Capability rungs beyond stocks and humanitarian response	ministries, regulators, producers	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued jointly by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (21 July 2026) from national surveys, price data and models. Annual. Role: binds FOO-001, FOO-002, FOO-003 and HLT-004.

EVD-GS03-001

SOFI 2026¹

Issued by FAO (release of 4 September 2026) from international export quotations. Monthly. Role: binds FIN-007. Revised monthly; earlier months are restated.

EVD-GS03-002

FAO Food Price Index⁴⁸

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS03-001	EVD-GS03-002
Completeness	all countries; modelled where surveys are missing	international export prices only; no retail prices
Timeliness	about 7 months after the year	about 1 month after the month
Revision	estimates revised with each edition	previous months revised each release
Method transparency	methods and annexes published	basket and weights described by the issuer
External validation	agency review and national consultation	compared with national quotations by the issuer

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

FAO FPMA tool: national retail prices for countries in crisis
GRFC²⁸: country tables behind the summary
FAO and trade analysts¹⁴: fertiliser volumes after March 2026
USDA¹³: regional production tables for the 2026 El Niño season

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	food, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CoHD	cost of a healthy diet
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FFPI	FAO Food Price Index
GNAFC	Global Network Against Food Crises
GRFC	Global Report on Food Crises
HPAI	high pathogenicity avian influenza
IPC	Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Mt	million tonnes
PoU	prevalence of undernourishment
PPP	purchasing power parity
SOFI	The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
WOAH	World Organisation for Animal Health

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS03-HRV-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Trade-route notes	cards for the major crop regions and shared trade routes	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: prevalence of undernourishment

Construct: share and number of people whose habitual food consumption is insufficient to provide the dietary energy for an active, healthy life
Unit: share and number of people
Method: FAO model combining national food supply, distribution and requirements
Source: SOFI 2026¹
Uncertainty: world range 608 to 696 million people in 2025
Known limits: measures energy intake only; does not capture diet quality, access or short shocks

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Name	Purpose	Duration	Party
`wordpress_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out	First party
`wordpress_logged_in_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_sec_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_test_cookie`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`wp-settings-*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	1 year	First party
`wp-postpass_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	10 days	First party
`comment_author_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	About 347 days	First party
`wpEmojiSettingsSupports`browser storage	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`nexus_consent`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_id`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_reset`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	Session	First party
`wp_consent_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent`browser storage	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nx_theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.theme.default`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode-against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.embed.theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_dark_mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_color_mode_against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.a11y`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.dock`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bp-activity`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-groups`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-members`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-blogs`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-messages`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party