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Rapporto 2026 su rischio e resilienza dei sistemi globali

The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. The first annual edition of the global report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the interdependent global system, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 global edition and every series edition will be read.

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Curatore
Saeed Valadbaygi
Ufficio
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Chiusura delle evidenze
30 September 2026
Stato
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
RapportiGLB

Rischio e resilienza dei sistemi globali

Global Systems 2026

The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change

Edizione di base 2026NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Risultanze12each with its status and source
Fonti47numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicatori19in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-GLB-2026-BL
Family · class
Globale sistemi Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
Chiusura delle evidenze
30 September 2026 · cut DC-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-B0
Riproducibilità
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
Valutazione
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · rischio globale screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
Non per
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
Registro
record NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
Correzioni
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
Uso dell'IA
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
Licenza
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-GLB-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.

    How warm is the world?Dichiarato

  2. Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.

    Are disaster losses rising?Dichiarato

  3. Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.

    Who carries the losses?Dichiarato

  4. No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.

    Are emissions falling?Dichiarato

  5. 673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising rischio di coda.

    Is the food system stable?Dichiarato

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. The world’s risk is entangled, not additive

    Part I describes sistemi and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the global baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Quattro rischio globale objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 global agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
  2. 1.1Where did 2025’s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.12027 global readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional flagships
  10. 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
  11. 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1Metodi
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  37. B.3Global source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  39. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  40. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports an entangled reading of rischio globale. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core sistemi share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.

CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Versione
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Chiusura delle evidenze
Stato
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Curatore
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
Il Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

RuoloContributoBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the global system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MetodologiaBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarRapporti editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
VigilanzaEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Revisione prima del rilascio

SuperatoAmbitoByStato
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TPianificato
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TPianificato
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MPianificato
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FPianificato
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key NPianificato

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • Stampa

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF99 pages817 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 318a10ccbc69937c495bbbe6b073fb6cb5c54134461bbb8454d4860a5b847c2e

      Scarica: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF105 pages823 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 017513c76d81bceff0e233921871ebb84daae674dcbcb663616fee7faaf0b578

      Scarica: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      19 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 3cf7dbb2e43df3c56ffcd533134dc4f0974de715bf3ba7f0852be93463ac5315

      Scarica: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 9074ab9e3b00d5ca85e2813a4d62f07109422fd3e991bff9bf70cb78ed3ce66c

      Scarica: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 53b0d06e02e6d2eeaf4a5cea9c6dd1cdda8b7b7569f183a641509a5c809784ee

      Scarica: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 c7fc305e1e370c70eb3f7795acc51825ff32f3f4254b219a429df386d3880b96

      Scarica: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 34252501a9de4ae9ca6c51f5608345dfddc7978d1086b368e860047e3f6b0961

      Scarica: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 a10736cfe1728e89c36a31fbcdced64e8153ba8790444bef41fa25a21ebdc9c6

      Scarica: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoraggio

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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