Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- التقارير
- مخاطر النظم العالمية وصمودها
- إصدار خط الأساس 2026
التقرير العالمي عن المخاطر النظمية والصمود 2026
The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. The first annual edition of the global report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the interdependent global system, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 global edition and every series edition will be read.
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- المكتب
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- الناشر الرسمي
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- Reports Collection 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026
- الحالة
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
مخاطر النظم العالمية وصمودها
Global Systems 2026
The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-GLB-2026-BL
- Family · class
- عالميًا النظم Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026 · cut DC-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-B0
- قابلية إعادة الإنتاج
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- المراجعة
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · المخاطر العالمية screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
- ليس مخصصًا لـ
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- السجل
- record NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- التصحيحات
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- استخدام الذكاء الاصطناعي
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
- الترخيص
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-GLB-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.
How warm is the world?مُبلَّغ عنه
Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.
Are disaster losses rising?مُبلَّغ عنه
Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.
Who carries the losses?مُبلَّغ عنه
No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.
Are emissions falling?مُبلَّغ عنه
673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising مخاطر الذيل.
Is the food system stable?مُبلَّغ عنه
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. The world’s risk is entangled, not additive
Part I describes النظم and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the global baseline.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
أربعة المخاطر العالمية objects open the portfolio.
- 5
Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 global agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (43)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.12027 global readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional flagships
- 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
- 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1الأساليب
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Global baseline indicator set
- B.2Global baseline indicator set
- B.3Global source register
- B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
- B.5How countries appear in the global edition
- B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
- B.7Licences of each kind of material
- B.8This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports an entangled reading of المخاطر العالمية. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core النظم share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.
CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- الإصدار
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- إغلاق الأدلة
- الحالة
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- الناشر الرسمي
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- الطبعة السابقة
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0
Contributors
| الدور | المساهمة | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the global system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| المنهجية | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | التقارير editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| الرقابة | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
المراجعة قبل الإصدار
| المرور | النطاق | By | الحالة |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | مجدول |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | مجدول |
| 5 | Regional context and safeguards | Regional consortia · key N | مجدول |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
طباعة
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF99 pages817 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
318a10ccbc69937c495bbbe6b073fb6cb5c54134461bbb8454d4860a5b847c2ePDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF105 pages823 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
017513c76d81bceff0e233921871ebb84daae674dcbcb663616fee7faaf0b578
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
19 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
3cf7dbb2e43df3c56ffcd533134dc4f0974de715bf3ba7f0852be93463ac5315Indicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
9074ab9e3b00d5ca85e2813a4d62f07109422fd3e991bff9bf70cb78ed3ce66cFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
53b0d06e02e6d2eeaf4a5cea9c6dd1cdda8b7b7569f183a641509a5c809784ee
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
c7fc305e1e370c70eb3f7795acc51825ff32f3f4254b219a429df386d3880b96Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
34252501a9de4ae9ca6c51f5608345dfddc7978d1086b368e860047e3f6b0961Citation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
a10736cfe1728e89c36a31fbcdced64e8153ba8790444bef41fa25a21ebdc9c6
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
الرصد
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/.BibTeX
@techreport{NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT
ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI - Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change
T3 - Nexus Reports
ET - Baseline Edition 2026
PY - 2026
PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY - Toronto
SN - NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/
N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA - en
ER - NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.08 · Related
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- NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
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- Evidence close 30 September 2026
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