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프랑스 시스템 리스크 및 회복력 보고서 2026

The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the France report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 795 KB · 99 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
편집자
Saeed Valadbaygi
데스크
GCRI Systems Evidence
공식 발행인
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Collection
France 2026
근거 마감
30 September 2026
상태
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
보고서FRA

국가 시스템 리스크와 회복력

France 2026

The State of France’s Interdependent Systems

기준판 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
조사 결과12each with its status and source
출처40numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
지표16in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-FRA-2026-BL
Family · class
국가 시스템 Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
근거 마감
30 September 2026 · cut NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1
재현성
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
검토
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
해당하지 않는 것
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
등록부
record NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
정정
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AI 사용
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
라이선스
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-FRA

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but falling about half as fast as the 2030 target needs.

    Where do emissions stand?보고값

  2. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France; the national adaptation plan now prepares for +4 °C by 2100.

    Is the climate already changing?보고값

  3. People aged 75 and over: about three quarters of the 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024.

    Who is most exposed to heat?보고값

  4. Nuclear output fell to its lowest since 1988 in 2022, when heat and low flows limited cooling.

    How exposed is electricity to heat and drought?보고값

  5. About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding.

    How large is flood exposure?보고값

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

    Part I describes 시스템 and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer with low river flows

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Nuclear electricity output (TWh)
  2. 1.1Who consumes France’s freshwater? Share of water consumed, by use (%)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Nuclear electricity output (TWh)
List of tables (42)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Official statistics and agency data
  11. 6.6Insurance, nature and losses
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1방법
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Baseline indicator set
  37. B.3National source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, metropolitan regions and overseas territories
  39. B.5France system card
  40. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  41. B.7This edition in every format
  42. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports a coupled reading of French risk. Heat, drought and low flows already constrain electricity, harvests and health; flood and subsidence losses fall on a shared insurance regime. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and power output, and weakest for overseas exposure and cross-system dependencies.

CLI-001 · ENE-004 · HLT-006 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
버전
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
근거 마감
상태
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
편집자
Saeed Valadbaygi
공식 발행인
글로벌 리스크 혁신 센터(Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

역할기여By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the France system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
방법론Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar보고서 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of national and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
감독Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

공개 전 검토

통과범위By상태
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T예정됨
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T예정됨
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M예정됨
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F예정됨
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key N예정됨

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 인쇄

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF99 pages795 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 13dfc09fc745fca671c9a3c3a29f4d67d3b75059c1b647aacdf6f9c29af7aefd

      다운로드: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF105 pages803 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 836b485d3b52142c39a498631a787fbddbd6f7526383c2177495c0209689a530

      다운로드: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      16 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 0e79e43da6ba4b09472679b3c1e92f97db226f31d4e29dfdc42518ef93a6568c

      다운로드: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 0310a7dad371f9d29acb9a835fc4d016fdc9b6b553915f71054a0922b418104e

      다운로드: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 8efd5e2759b86d4ca51e906a3ce6045ae55430ebb4bdfefd7bd8c6e0a7781a89

      다운로드: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 f3ff3cf933adf657048bae484fd40185665db9c6d0a5a9c94bba9326656ca445

      다운로드: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 217a23ee20664fb757e583eaba280b358dd47b972a886abcd93c2e71681c8a9e

      다운로드: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 dc7d60a4d72b56a80bb48aa262b66fdd6a43f054cc8687bde9f9e6cc5ba0b5b8

      다운로드: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

모니터링

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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