Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- التقارير
- مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
- إصدار خط الأساس 2026
تقرير فرنسا عن المخاطر النظمية والصمود 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the France report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- المكتب
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- الناشر الرسمي
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- France 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026
- الحالة
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-FRA-2026-BL
- Family · class
- البلد النظم Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1
- قابلية إعادة الإنتاج
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- المراجعة
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- ليس مخصصًا لـ
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- السجل
- record NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- التصحيحات
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- استخدام الذكاء الاصطناعي
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- الترخيص
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-FRA
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but falling about half as fast as the 2030 target needs.
Where do emissions stand?مُبلَّغ عنه
2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France; the national adaptation plan now prepares for +4 °C by 2100.
Is the climate already changing?مُبلَّغ عنه
People aged 75 and over: about three quarters of the 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024.
Who is most exposed to heat?مُبلَّغ عنه
Nuclear output fell to its lowest since 1988 in 2022, when heat and low flows limited cooling.
How exposed is electricity to heat and drought?مُبلَّغ عنه
About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding.
How large is flood exposure?مُبلَّغ عنه
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes النظم and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer with low river flows
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (42)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Official statistics and agency data
- 6.6Insurance, nature and losses
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1الأساليب
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, metropolitan regions and overseas territories
- B.5France system card
- B.6Licences of each kind of material
- B.7This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of French risk. Heat, drought and low flows already constrain electricity, harvests and health; flood and subsidence losses fall on a shared insurance regime. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and power output, and weakest for overseas exposure and cross-system dependencies.
CLI-001 · ENE-004 · HLT-006 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- الإصدار
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- إغلاق الأدلة
- الحالة
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- الناشر الرسمي
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- الطبعة السابقة
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| الدور | المساهمة | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the France system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| المنهجية | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | التقارير editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| الرقابة | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
المراجعة قبل الإصدار
| المرور | النطاق | By | الحالة |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | مجدول |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | مجدول |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | مجدول |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
طباعة
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF99 pages795 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
13dfc09fc745fca671c9a3c3a29f4d67d3b75059c1b647aacdf6f9c29af7aefdPDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF105 pages803 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
836b485d3b52142c39a498631a787fbddbd6f7526383c2177495c0209689a530
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
16 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
0e79e43da6ba4b09472679b3c1e92f97db226f31d4e29dfdc42518ef93a6568cIndicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
0310a7dad371f9d29acb9a835fc4d016fdc9b6b553915f71054a0922b418104eFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
8efd5e2759b86d4ca51e906a3ce6045ae55430ebb4bdfefd7bd8c6e0a7781a89
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
f3ff3cf933adf657048bae484fd40185665db9c6d0a5a9c94bba9326656ca445Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
217a23ee20664fb757e583eaba280b358dd47b972a886abcd93c2e71681c8a9eCitation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
dc7d60a4d72b56a80bb48aa262b66fdd6a43f054cc8687bde9f9e6cc5ba0b5b8
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
الرصد
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/fra/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- التقاريرCAN
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرUSA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرGBR
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرDEU
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرITA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرJPN
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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Reports · GCRI
Bring evidence to the next edition.
Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
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