The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Oceans and Coasts relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
GCRI · In development · service level R0
The Oceans and Coasts methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them ocean and coastal science, Earth observation and remote sensing, and extreme value theory and tail risk, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Marine heat, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll and sea ice from satellite analyses, framed on Pacific Island states; each layer is a dated NASA product.
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Layers 1
Ocean state
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth
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Marine heat, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll and sea ice from satellite analyses, framed on Pacific Island states.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Ice-sheet contribution | Dominates the upper range of sea-level rise | Likely range and high-end scenarios shown separately |
| Vertical land motion | Can exceed sea-level rise locally | Tide-gauge and satellite data combined, with datum stated |
| Storm surge statistics | Short records for extremes | Return levels with intervals |
| Ecosystem response | Thresholds uncertain | Ranges and observed events |
Sea-level figures always state the datum, baseline period and scenario.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Ocean and coastal science | Ocean science studies the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of the oceans and coasts. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.