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GCRIOceans and CoastsIn development
Reviewed models and scenarios

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Oceans and Coasts are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Oceans and coasts, Climate and hazards, Biodiversity and nature
Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Reviewed models and scenarios: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerabilityRisk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Oceans and Coasts reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the oceans and coasts field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as ocean and coastal science as well as Earth observation and remote sensing. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.

02Geography

Ocean state in Pacific Island states.

Marine heat, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll and sea ice from satellite analyses, framed on Pacific Island states; each layer is a dated NASA product.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 1

Ocean state

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Marine heat, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll and sea ice from satellite analyses, framed on Pacific Island states.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Natural EarthSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group; distributed by the NASA Ocean Biology DAAC (OB.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.

Layers and dates

  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Sea surface temperature: GHRSST MUR, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Ocean chlorophyll-a concentration: MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA OB.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Sea ice concentration: GHRSST MUR, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
04Model classes

The kinds of model ocean and coastal work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Storm surge and tide modelsOpen coastal ocean modelsSurge heights and inundationTide-gauge records
Shoreline change modelsOpen coastal morphology modelsErosion and accretionHistorical shoreline positions
Ocean biogeochemical modelsCMIP ocean componentsWarming, acidification, oxygenObservations from floats and cruises
Fisheries ecosystem modelsEcopath with EcosimStock responsesCatch and survey data
05Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

06Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Model validationComparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.
Model cardA short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits.
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Surrogate modelA fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment.
07Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I request a map or model?
Write to contact@therisk.global with what you need and why.
Oceans and Coasts

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.