G-P04 · PROCESS · modelsGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRICritical InfrastructureIn development
Reviewed models and scenarios

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Critical Infrastructure are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Critical infrastructure, Cities and built environment
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Build workspace

Critical infrastructure · Reviewed models and… · Run R-8171

Run in progressGCRI · Critical Infrastructure

Runs

same inputs, versioned

R-4980Reliability and…v5.50.77Running
R-1285Systems engineeringv3.40.53Failed test
R-6179Network science and…v4.20.50Passed
R-5373Sensors, IoT and…v3.80.42Passed

Model card

Method
Reliability and resilience…
Inputs
Asset register, Hazard layers
Validation
held-out period, skill reported
Label
MODELLED

Run log

  1. 00:00:11InfoIngest asset register
  2. 00:02:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
  3. 00:07:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
  4. 00:16:03DoneCalibration complete
  5. 00:21:55GateIndependent test queued

Critical Infrastructure · Build workspaceBuild workspace, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Critical Infrastructure reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the critical infrastructure field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as reliability and resilience engineering as well as systems engineering. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Reviewed models and scenarios: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerabilityRisk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Infrastructure exposure in Western Europe.

For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, true-colour imagery and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Western Europe; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Infrastructure exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, true-colour imagery and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Western Europe; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026

04What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
05Model classes

The kinds of model infrastructure work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Interdependency network modelsMultilayer network toolsCascades across sectorsReconstruction of past outages
Input-output modelsInoperability input-output modelsEconomic consequence of outagesComparison with observed impacts
Agent-based restoration modelsOpen simulation frameworksRestoration sequencingPast restoration records
Fragility and loss modelsHazus methodologyAsset damage under hazardsPost-event surveys
06Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Model validationComparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.
Model cardA short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits.
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Surrogate modelA fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I request a map or model?
Write to contact@therisk.global with what you need and why.
Critical Infrastructure

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.