G03 · PROCESS · modelsGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRIEnergy NexusEstablished
Reviewed models and scenarios

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Energy, Critical infrastructure, Climate and hazards
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Build workspace

Energy · Reviewed models and… · Run R-9239

Run in progressGCRI · Energy Nexus

Runs

same inputs, versioned

R-3616Energy generation,…v7.20.84Running
R-6641Power systems…v7.50.78Passed
R-2651Reliability and…v3.20.59Passed
R-6174Optimization and…v3.10.44Drift

Model card

Method
Energy generation, storage…
Inputs
SCADA operational data, Outage register
Validation
held-out period, skill reported
Label
MODELLED

Run log

  1. 00:00:21InfoIngest scada operational data
  2. 00:03:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
  3. 00:07:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
  4. 00:11:03DoneCalibration complete
  5. 00:28:55GateIndependent test queued

Energy Nexus · Build workspaceBuild workspace, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Energy Nexus reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the energy field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as energy generation, storage and grid technology as well as power systems engineering. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Reviewed models and scenarios: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerabilityRisk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Energy demand and corridors in Australia.

Where demand concentrates in cities and the rail, road and port corridors that move fuel and equipment, shown for Australia as an example geography for this subject.

Where demand concentrates in cities and the rail, road and port corridors that move fuel and equipment.Indicator derived from Natural Earth at map scale; a screening view, not an assessment.
GCRI · Energy Nexus · fieldDESIGN FIGURE
04What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
05Model classes

The kinds of model energy work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Capacity expansionPyPSA, OSeMOSYS, TIMESLeast-cost system plans under policy constraintsBenchmarks against historical build and other models
Production cost and unit commitmentPLEXOS-type and open equivalentsHourly operation and adequacyBack-casting of historical dispatch
Power flow and dynamicspandapower, PSS-type toolsStability under disturbancesComparison with recorded events
Gas network modelsOpen gas flow toolsPipeline capacity in cold spellsHistorical flow reconstruction

Open models are preferred so that results can be reproduced; any proprietary model is named with its version.

06Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Model validationComparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.
Model cardA short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits.
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Surrogate modelA fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I request a map or model?
Write to contact@therisk.global with what you need and why.
Energy Nexus

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

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