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GCRIFuture of Work and SkillsIn development
Reviewed models and scenarios

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Future of Work and Skills are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

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Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Work and skills, Society and human development, Artificial intelligence
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Build workspace

Future of work · Reviewed models and… · Run R-0351

Run in progressGCRI · Future of Work and Skills

Runs

same inputs, versioned

R-0517Economics and…v4.40.58Running
R-0488Artificial…v6.30.85Drift
R-9721Robotics and automationv7.20.72Failed test
R-5577Social and behavioural…v5.30.64Drift

Model card

Method
Economics and development…
Inputs
Labour force survey, Vacancy data
Validation
held-out period, skill reported
Label
MODELLED

Run log

  1. 00:00:55InfoIngest labour force survey
  2. 00:03:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
  3. 00:05:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
  4. 00:14:03DoneCalibration complete
  5. 00:27:55GateIndependent test queued

Future of Work and Skills · Build workspaceBuild workspace, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Future of Work and Skills reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the work and skills field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as economics and development economics as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Reviewed models and scenarios: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerabilityRisk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

People and exposure in Southeast Asia.

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, framed on Southeast Asia; each layer is a dated NASA product.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, framed on Southeast Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Natural EarthSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026

04What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
05Model classes

The kinds of model work and skills work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Task exposure modelsOccupation-task matchingExposure to automationComparison of methods
Labour market modelsSearch and matching modelsTransitionsLabour force data
06Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Model validationComparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.
Model cardA short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits.
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Surrogate modelA fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I request a map or model?
Write to contact@therisk.global with what you need and why.
Related

Around Future of Work and Skills.

Future of Work and Skills

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

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