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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the climate baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate sets the terms for the other systems
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

From the start of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change.

Figure 2.1Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C, 50% likelihood, from 2026 (GtCO2)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Global Carbon Budget 2025170
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025130

Sources: Friedlingstein et al.6; Forster et al.7.

Implication

The two assessments agree that the budget is nearly exhausted: about 4 years at the 2025 emissions level in one, a little more than 3 years in the other. They differ by 40 GtCO2, and each issuer states its own method. The budget can also change by about 200 GtCO2 depending on how far non-CO2 emissions fall7.

What would move it

The next Global Carbon Budget, the 2026 emissions estimate and the next annual indicators update would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    2025 was the third-warmest year in ERA5 at 1.47 °C above pre-industrial, with 2023 to 2025 averaging 1.52 °C; WMO gives about 1.43 °C, and human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C at a rate of 0.27 °C a decade.127910

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    August 2026 was 1.65 °C above pre-industrial and the 12-month mean to August was 1.48 °C; NOAA gives a chance above 90% of a very strong El Niño in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027.47484

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Global carbon dioxide averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network, 52% above pre-industrial; methane at 1942 ppb and nitrous oxide at 338.0 ppb were also at record levels. The 2025 annual values are not bound at the close.31

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

    The remaining budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change, both from the start of 2026.67

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    More than 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean, ocean heat content was a record in 2025, global sea level was about 11 cm above its 1993 level, and the 2025 Arctic winter maximum was the lowest on record.271

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Fossil CO2 emissions were 37.8 GtCO2 in 2024, up 1.1%, and are projected up about 1.0% in 2025; EDGAR gives 53.2 GtCO2e of all greenhouse gases in 2024, excluding land use.6127

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades, and the past seven years have had the fewest rivers with normal flow since 1991.242

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities were 430,365 over 2000 to 2025, with the attributed share rising from 39% in 2000 to 68% in 2025; the 2022 summer alone was estimated at 61,672 heat deaths in Europe.2322

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, down about 14 million on 2024, and the five-year projections do not include El Niño effects in 2026 and 2027.263

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Climate finance reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, of which adaptation was USD 65 billion and mitigation USD 1,780 billion.20

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Warm-water coral reefs are crossing a thermal tipping point at 1.4 °C of warming, and six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.16181719

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño that coincides with record warmth, river deficits and food stress in exposed regions. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026back
  2. 7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026back
  3. 1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354back
  4. 2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-zback
  15. 26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458back
  20. 17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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