Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial, ERA5	1.47	°C	2025	Reported	¹
Global temperature, WMO consolidated estimate	1.43	°C	2025	Reported	²
Human-induced warming	1.37	°C	2025	Reported	⁷
Rate of human-induced warming	0.27	°C a decade	2016 to 2025	Reported	⁷
Carbon dioxide, WMO network	423.9	ppm	2024	Reported	³¹
Methane, WMO network	1,942	ppb	2024	Reported	³¹
Nitrous oxide, WMO network	338.0	ppb	2024	Reported	³¹
Fossil CO2 emissions	37.8	GtCO2	2024	Reported	⁶
All-gas emissions excluding land use, EDGAR	53.2	GtCO2e	2024	Reported	¹²
Remaining budget for 1.5 °C, Global Carbon Budget	170	GtCO2	from 2026	Reported	⁶
Remaining budget for 1.5 °C, indicators update	130	GtCO2	from 2026	Reported	⁷
Sea level above the 1993 start of the record	≈11	cm	2025	Reported	²
Excess heat stored in the ocean	>91	%	2025	Reported	²
People facing hunger	645	million	2025	Reported	²⁶
Climate finance	1.9	USD trillion	2023	Reported	²⁰
Adaptation finance	65	USD billion	2023	Reported	²⁰
Countries with multi-hazard early warning systems	119	countries	2025	Reported	²⁵
August 2026 above pre-industrial, ERA5	1.65	°C	2026	Reported	⁴⁷
Chance of a very strong El Niño, northern fall and winter 2026 to 2027	>90	%	2026	Scenario	⁴⁸

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3Global source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025¹	operational climate service	global	2025	annual	temperature, sea ice
WMO State of the Global Climate 2025²	UN agency	global	2025	annual	indicators
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21³¹	UN agency	global	2024	annual	gas concentrations
Global Carbon Budget 2025⁶	research consortium	global	2024 to 2025	annual	emissions, budget
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025⁷	research consortium	global	2025	annual	warming, forcing
GISTEMP and HadCRUT5⁹¹⁰	national climate centres	global	2025	monthly	temperature series
C3S monthly bulletin⁴⁷	operational climate service	global	2026	monthly	current state
NOAA ENSO discussion⁴⁸	national weather service	tropical Pacific	2026	monthly	El Niño outlook
WMO water resources report²⁴	UN agency	global	2025	annual	rivers
CPI climate finance landscape²⁰	think tank	global	2023	annual	finance flows

B.3Regional reading: climate across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading: climate across ten clusters
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
North America	wildfire and storm losses; heat in the south-west	cities, insurance, forests	Los Angeles fires over USD 60 billion³
South America	Amazon dieback risk; drought	forests, rivers, power	tipping risk¹⁶
Europe	warming about twice the global average; heat deaths	health, cities, rivers	C3S¹; heat deaths²³
Eurasia	Arctic warming; permafrost and fires	ice, infrastructure	regional statistics (not bound)
Middle East and North Africa	extreme heat; water scarcity	health, water	regional statistics (not bound)
Africa	hunger and displacement; drought and flood	food, health, households	hunger 309 million²⁶; water events²⁴
South Asia	monsoon floods; heat	crops, cities, health	Pakistan 1,037 flood deaths³
East Asia	extreme rainfall and flooding	cities, crops	northern China rainfall 160% above average³
ASEAN	typhoon and flood losses	cities, ports, farms	Philippines typhoon, 253 deaths³
Oceania-Pacific	reef stress; island exposure	reefs, coasts, islands	early warning in 43% of small island developing States²⁵

B.4Indicator card: the 1.5 °C level

temperature
Paris Agreement
overshoot
El Niño

Systems in view: water, food, health, nature, infrastructure
Defining events: first three-year mean above 1.5 °C, 2023 to 2025¹
Couplings: CLI → WAT drought and flood; CLI → HLT heat; CLI → BIO thresholds
Capability evidence: annual indicator updates and early warning reports⁷²⁵
Gaps: how the long-term level is defined and measured
Agenda items: C-01 · C-05

A year above 1.5 °C is not a breach of the long-term level; the level refers to warming sustained over about 20 years [4] [1].

LEVEL

Single years and long-term warming

C3S uses three methods and all give about 1.4 °C at the end of 2025 [1]; the indicators update gives 1.37 °C human-induced [7].

METHOD

Several ways to measure

C3S points to about 2029 on a 30-year trend, WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026 to 2030 mean exceeds 1.5 °C [1] [4].

TIMING

Different crossing dates

B.5How countries appear in the climate edition

Countries enter the climate edition through the climate chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the climate edition
Card field	What it shows	Source
WEFH+B state	each core system against peer distribution bands	national edition
Couplings	the national dependency matrix	national edition
Risk objects	the national risk portfolio	national edition
Capability rungs	the national capability ladder	national edition
Evidence age	oldest and newest source dates	national source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
Wave	Countries and unions	State
W0	Canada	ISSUED
W1	United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland	PLANNED
W2	Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia	PLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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