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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate sets the terms for the other systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Climate and water
    2. 8.2 Climate and food
    3. 8.3 Climate and health
    4. 8.4 Climate and nature
    5. 8.5 Climate, infrastructure and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Climate and water

Climate sets the rainfall, the evaporation and the ice that feed rivers. The 2025 and 2026 records show a more erratic water cycle: long runs of below-normal river flow, falling land water storage and ice loss.

7years

of the fewest rivers with normal flow since 199124

4years

of glacier loss in every major glaciated region24

8 of 10years

of largest glacier loss since 20162

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
River flow2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades24Reported
Land water storagestorage on land has decreased over the past ten years24Reported
Glaciersmass loss among the five worst on record in the 2024 to 2025 hydrological year2Reported
Water-related disastersAsia and Africa had at least half of events and over 80% of deaths in five years24Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → WAT rainfall and flow
  • CLI → WAT ice and snow storage
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and crops

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • groundwater storage by region
  • basin-level dependence of other systems

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.2Climate and food

Food depends on rainfall, temperature and the timing of seasons. Hunger has eased for three years, but the projections leave out the effect of the strong El Niño now developing.

645million

people facing hunger, 202526

2.1billion

moderately or severely food insecure, 202526

56.6%

of Africa’s population moderately or severely food insecure26

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hunger7.8% of the world faced hunger in 2025, down from 8.1% in 202426Reported
Food insecurity25.8% moderately or severely food insecure; highest in Africa26Reported
Projectionsabout 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030; El Niño effects not included26Reported
Extreme weathercascading effects on harvests, displacement and pests3Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → FOO rainfall and heat
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • the share of hunger attributable to climate
  • harvest effects of the 2026 El Niño

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.3Climate and health

Heat, floods, storms and shifting disease ranges act on health directly and through food, water and livelihoods. The evidence is strongest for heat.

430,365deaths

modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 202523

61,672deaths

heat-related deaths in Europe, summer 202222

1.2billion

workers face workplace heat risk each year2

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heat deathsjust over half of the modelled burden attributed to human-induced warming; the share rose from 39% to 68%23Reported
Vulnerability3.6 billion people live in areas highly susceptible; death rates from extreme events 15 times higher in vulnerable regions218Reported
Diseasedengue is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease, with record reported cases2Reported
Warningonly about half of countries gave heat warnings tailored to health in 20232Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → HLT heat and disease
  • WAT → HLT floods and scarcity
  • FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • global heat deaths on one basis
  • health-facility resilience to extremes

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.4Climate and nature

Nature sets thresholds that climate can cross. Reefs, ice sheets, forests and ocean chemistry show the clearest evidence. Nature is not reduced to a single number in this edition.

1.4°C

warming at which warm-water coral reefs cross a thermal tipping point16

6 of 9boundaries

planetary boundaries transgressed18

29%

of human CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2015 to 20242

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Coral reefscrossing a thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback16Reported
Ocean chemistryaverage ocean conditions inside the uncertainty range of the acidification boundary by 202019Reported
Planetary boundariessix of nine transgressed in the 2023 update18Reported
Tipping thresholdsseveral may be triggered between 1.5 and below 2 °C17Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → BIO thresholds
  • BIO → CLI carbon sinks
  • ENE → BIO mining and land use

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • threshold ranges with confidence levels
  • ecosystem effects of the 2026 El Niño

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.5Climate, infrastructure and extremes

Extremes meet the built environment and public budgets. The 2025 events show losses that are large against national output, and warning systems that are not yet universal.

41%

of Jamaica’s GDP in physical damage from Hurricane Melissa3

>60USD billion

estimated losses from the Los Angeles fires, the largest for a wildfire3

43%

of small island developing States with early warning systems25

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hurricane Melissaphysical damage estimated at USD 8.8 billion, 41% of Jamaica’s GDP3Reported
Los Angeles firesover USD 60 billion in estimated losses; more than 260,000 displaced3Reported
Flood events1,037 flood-related deaths in Pakistan; 253 deaths in the Philippines from one typhoon3Reported
Early warning119 countries report multi-hazard systems; 43% of small island developing States25Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → INF storm, fire and flood damage
  • INF → FIN losses and budgets
  • CLI → FIN adaptation and protection finance

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • losses from extremes on one basis
  • infrastructure exposure to extremes by region

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-zback
  7. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458back
  11. 19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238back
  12. 17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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