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Risks and capability

Four climate risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table14 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate sets the terms for the other systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS07-CLI-001

    Overshoot of 1.5 °C and rising extremes

    Driver
    record greenhouse gas concentrations and a developing strong El Niño3148
    Exposure
    all regions; coasts, cities, outdoor workers
    Vulnerability
    3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in highly vulnerable contexts8
    Capacity
    early warning, heat plans, cooling and shelter25
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT, FOO, HLT, INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS07-WAT-002

    River deficits and swings between drought and flood

    Driver
    a more erratic water cycle and shrinking land water storage24
    Exposure
    irrigated farming, cities, river-fed power and transport
    Vulnerability
    low storage; over-allocated basins
    Capacity
    storage, demand management, forecasting
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT, BIO
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS07-BIO-003

    Reef and forest tipping under warming and local stress

    Driver
    warming near 1.5 °C with non-climate stress16
    Exposure
    coral reefs, the Amazon, polar ice
    Vulnerability
    thresholds are uncertain and irreversible on human timescales
    Capacity
    reducing local stress such as deforestation and overfishing16
    Cascade
    BIO → FOO, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS07-FIN-004

    Protection and adaptation finance gap

    Driver
    event losses rising while adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance203
    Exposure
    low-income and island economies
    Vulnerability
    limited access to affordable capital
    Capacity
    public adaptation finance, insurance, anticipatory action
    Cascade
    FIN → INF, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for climate at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSthe Paris Agreement has 194 Parties; emissions are still rising286
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEstrong global indicator series; observing programmes under funding pressure75
Early warningEXISTS119 countries report multi-hazard systems; 43% of small island developing States25
Preparedness and planningEXISTSheat and drought plans in many countries; implementation uneven8
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDreserves against climate shocks are not consolidated here
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDemergency response in the 2025 events, with losses and displacement recorded3
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDcontinuity under climate extremes is not consolidated here
RecoveryEXISTSrecovery follows major events; outcomes are not consolidated3
AdaptationEXISTSplanning is widespread; most observed adaptation is small in scale and incremental8
Social protectionLISTEDclimate-specific support for poor households is not consolidated
Finance and insuranceEXISTSclimate finance of USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation USD 65 billion20
Institutional coordinationEXISTSthe climate treaty process and the Early Warnings for All initiative2825
Technical infrastructureADEQUATEdesignated centres produce annual to decadal predictions4
WorkforceLISTEDskills for climate services are not consolidated; about half of countries had heat warnings for health in 20232
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong indicator and attribution science with annual updates7
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026back
  11. 7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026back
  12. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07back
  13. 4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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