Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 climate agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 climate edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate sets the terms for the other systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. C-01

    How would a strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background travel through rivers, harvests and health systems at once?

    INI-GS07-ELN-01 · El Niño compound test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. C-02

    Where do heat deaths and workplace heat risk coincide with weak health-sector early warning?

    INI-GS07-HET-02 · heat and health; first output: exposure table by region.

  3. C-03

    Which river basins show repeated below-normal flow, and which systems depend on them?

    INI-GS07-RIV-03 · river deficits; first output: basin dependence map.

  4. C-04

    How large is the gap between adaptation finance and adaptation need, by region?

    INI-GS07-ADP-04 · adaptation finance; first output: flow and need register.

  5. C-05

    Which tipping elements have evidence of early warning signals, and where are observations thin?

    INI-GS07-TIP-05 · tipping watch; first output: signal and gap table.

  6. C-06

    Which observing programmes are at risk of discontinuity?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: programme overlay.

  7. C-07

    How do attribution studies of events compare on method and basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. C-08

    Which climate capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    Climate capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 climate portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS07-ELN-01El Niño compound testInitiativeC-01PROPOSED
INI-GS07-HET-02Heat and healthInitiativeC-02PROPOSED
INI-GS07-RIV-03River deficitsInitiativeC-03PROPOSED
INI-GS07-ADP-04Adaptation financeInitiativeC-04PROPOSED
INI-GS07-TIP-05Tipping watchInitiativeC-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS07-2027-01El Niño compound test Universe missionMissionC-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The climate edition reads national climate chapters, regional hazard and adaptation evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and national chapters are in preparation. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National climate chapters

    climate, hazard and adaptation chapter of each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Regional hazard evidence

    shared basins, coasts, monsoon and storm systems

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Climate sector model

    the global climate system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk · SR-12 Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Climate Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS07-2027-01 · El Niño compound test Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · temperaturepublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-005 · carbon budgetINI-GS07-TIP-05tipping watchPUBLIC
WAT-007 · riversINI-GS07-RIV-03river deficitsPUBLIC
HLT-008 · heat deathsINI-GS07-HET-02heat and healthPUBLIC
FOO-009 · hungerINI-GS07-ELN-01El Niño compound testPUBLIC
FIN-010 · financeINI-GS07-ADP-04adaptation financePUBLIC
BIO-011 · tippingregional consortiatipping signal overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS07-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Surface air temperature bulletinCopernicus Climate Change ServicemonthlyCLI-002
Trends in greenhouse gasesNOAA Global Monitoring Laboratorymonthly and annualCLI-003
Greenhouse Gas BulletinWorld Meteorological OrganizationannualCLI-003
ENSO diagnostic discussionNOAA Climate Prediction CentermonthlyCLI-002
Sea Ice TodayNational Snow and Ice Data CentermonthlyCLI-006
Global Carbon BudgetGlobal Carbon ProjectannualCLI-005
State of Global Water ResourcesWorld Meteorological OrganizationannualWAT-007

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS07-001August 2026 was 1.65 °C above pre-industrial47CORROBORATEDCLIresearch question C-01
SIG-GS07-002A strong El Niño is strengthening into early 202748CORROBORATEDCLI · WAT · FOOresearch question C-01
SIG-GS07-003Antarctic sea ice at record daily lows from October 202615PARTIALCLI · BIOinitiative C-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Climate and Earth Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskGlobal Sector Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices