Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 cities agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 cities edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cities are where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the cities candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. C-01

    How would a heat wave followed by flooding travel through housing, power, drainage and health in a subsiding coastal city?

    INI-GS10-HTF-01 · heat then flood; first output: concurrency analysis for six city regions.

  2. C-02

    Can urban population be reported on one definition across the UN and national series?

    INI-GS10-DEF-02 · definition bridge; first output: crosswalk table by country.

  3. C-03

    Where do informal settlements lack services that the national averages hide?

    INI-GS10-INF-03 · informal settlement services; first output: service-tier table.

  4. C-04

    What share of urban climate finance reaches municipalities, and in what form?

    INI-GS10-FIN-04 · municipal finance; first output: flow map with sources.

  5. C-05

    How much do buildings add to urban load and emissions, and where are codes in force?

    INI-GS10-BLD-05 · buildings and cooling; first output: code coverage register.

  6. C-06

    Which urban heat deaths are avoidable with cooling and green cover?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  7. C-07

    Which cities have adaptation plans that are funded and implemented?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: plan register.

  8. C-08

    Which urban capabilities have been tested in real heat or flood events, and which are only planned?

    Urban capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 cities portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS10-HTF-01Heat then floodInitiativeC-01PROPOSED
INI-GS10-DEF-02Definition bridgeInitiativeC-02PROPOSED
INI-GS10-INF-03Informal settlement servicesInitiativeC-03PROPOSED
INI-GS10-FIN-04Municipal financeInitiativeC-04PROPOSED
INI-GS10-BLD-05Buildings and coolingInitiativeC-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS10-2027-01Heat then flood Universe missionMissionC-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The cities edition reads national urban chapters, regional city-system evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National urban chapters

    urban system of each national edition

    PLANNED · national baselines

  2. 02

    City-system evidence

    delta, coastal and metropolitan regions that cross borders

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Urban sector model

    the global urban system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Cities Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the cities candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the cities candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS10-2027-01 · Heat then flood Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
SYS-001 · settlementpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
HLT-004 · informal settlementsINI-GS10-INF-03informal settlement servicesPUBLIC
CLI-006 · urban heatINI-GS10-HTF-01 · key F reviewheat then floodPUBLIC
WAT-007 · flood exposureINI-GS10-HTF-01heat then floodPUBLIC
FIN-009 · municipal financeINI-GS10-FIN-04municipal financePUBLIC
SYS-002 · city sizesINI-GS10-DEF-02definition bridgePUBLIC
BIO-011 · green spaceregional consortiacanopy and cooling overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS10-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
SDG database, Goal 11 seriesUN Statistics DivisionannualHLT-004
World Urbanization ProspectsUN DESA Population DivisionbiennialSYS-001
World Development IndicatorsWorld BankannualINF-010
Subnational finance observatoryOECD and UCLGtriennialFIN-009
Heat and health fact sheetWHOas updatedCLI-006
Ambient air quality database and fact sheetWHOas updatedHLT-008
Climate and city assessmentsIPCCassessment cycleCLI-005

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS10-001Urban heat exposure rose by 199% over 34 years14CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTresearch question C-01
SIG-GS10-002Informal settlements hold about a quarter of urban residents5CORROBORATEDHLT · INFinitiative C-03
SIG-GS10-003Cities receive under 20% of climate finance need12PARTIALFIN · INFinitiative C-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), e2024792118 (open access full text, PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 2021. Observation year 2016 (series 1983 to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11: make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable (Goal page; slum population, land consumption rate, targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022 (slums) and 2025 (land consumption). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 12UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action, key messages (report page; cities receive less than 20% of climate finance needed). United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Cities Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Cities and Urban Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Cities and Urban Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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