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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cities are where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Settlement

People living in cities, Degree of Urbanisation

45%

of 8.2 billion; 20% in 1950.

Reported2025UN DESA1

INF · Settlement

Urban population, national definitions

57.8%

4.75 billion people.

Reported2025World Bank2

HLT · Housing

Urban population in slums or informal settlements

24.8%

1.12 billion people.

Reported2022SDG database5

CLI · Climate

Urban share of global GHG emissions, consumption basis

67 to 72%

29 GtCO2-eq; 62% in 2015.

Reported2020IPCC6

WAT · Flood

People exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood, all settlements

1.81billion

23% of world population; modelled.

Reported2020 gridRentschler13

FIN · Finance

Subnational share of public investment

39.5%

21.5% of public spending.

Reported2020OECD, UCLG22

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through cities, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries cities risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATUrban supply, sanitation and drainage carry public health. In 2024, 83.4% of urban residents used safely managed drinking water and 65.8% safely managed sanitation.WAT → HLTReported EQL 4
ENEUrban access to electricity is 97.8% and to clean cooking 89.4%, but buildings and cooling load are not bound from a primary report here.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FOOHunger affects 645 million people and 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet; no global urban split is bound.FOO → HLTReported EQL 3
HLT489,000 heat deaths a year, 4.2 million air-pollution deaths, 1.16 million road deaths; slum housing for 1.12 billion people.INF → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOUrban green cover is low and falling in low-income countries; tree cover offsets 41 to 49% of the potential heat island.BIO → HLTReported EQL 4
CLIUrban emissions about 29 GtCO2-eq; extreme heat exposure up 199% in 34 years; 1 billion in low-lying cities at risk by 2050.CLI → INFReported EQL 5
INFHousing, transport, drainage and power form the urban core; 60.9% have convenient public transport access and 44.2% convenient access to open public space.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINSubnational governments hold 39.5% of public investment; cities receive less than 20% of climate finance need.FIN → INFReported EQL 4
DATGlobal urban series rest on census, survey and satellite grids; definitions differ and coverage is uneven.DAT → INFExpert input EQL 2
AICDigital services and sensing serve city operations; no consolidated global series is bound here.AIC → INFExpert input EQL 2
MINConstruction materials rise to about 90 billion tonnes a year by 2050 in the IPCC assessment, up from 40 billion in 2010.MIN → INFReported EQL 4
TRDPorts and logistics serve coastal cities; port-city exposure to flood and subsidence is not consolidated here.TRD ↔ INFInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on cities, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcities couple every other system712heat then floodPARTIAL
GS-01Waterdrinking supply and sanitation gaps in cities2flood and storm surgePARTIAL
GS-02Energyurban load and clean cooking access2peak demand in heatTHIN
GS-03Foodhealthy diets unaffordable for 2.7 billion24market disruptionTHIN
GS-04Healthheat, air and road deaths1089heat seasonGOOD
GS-05Financesubnational investment 39.5%22financing gapPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentslum population 1.12 billion5service access gapGOOD
GS-07Climateurban emissions about 29 GtCO2-eq6warming and exposureGOOD
GS-08Disaster1 billion in flood-prone areas, half in cities4compound eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructuretransport and service networks3service continuityPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesthe subject of this edition15urban compound riskGOOD
GS-11Biodiversityurban green cover and canopy1715loss of green coverPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationgrids support urban measurement1definition and resolutionPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitalmunicipal systems not boundattacks on city servicesTHIN
GS-14Policynational urban policies34implementation gapPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong urban climate science67city-level dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results (publication page and press release; 45% of 8.2 billion people in cities, 33 megacities, more than 12,000 cities, Degree of Urbanisation). United Nations, New York, November 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, API extract of urban population, total population, urban agglomerations, urban access to electricity, clean cooking, safely managed drinking water and sanitation, slum share (database updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (population) and 2024 (access). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11: make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable (Goal page; slum population, land consumption rate, targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022 (slums) and 2025 (land consumption). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6IPCC (ed.), Urban systems and other settlements, chapter 8 in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 13Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527 (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London, 2022. Observation year 2020 (population grid). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22OECD and UCLG (eds.), World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment, 2022 highlights (135 countries; 2020 data). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, and United Cities and Local Governments, Barcelona. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7IPCC (ed.), Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, chapter 6 in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action, key messages (report page; cities receive less than 20% of climate finance needed). United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 24FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page; 645 million people faced hunger in 2025; about 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year, 2000 to 2019; Europe summer 2022). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 8WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air pollution, fact sheet (4.2 million premature deaths in 2019; 99% of people above guideline levels). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (page date). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 4United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (housing, flood, local risk reduction strategies, waste collection, national urban policies). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicator data 2010 to 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 3UN Statistics Division (ed.), Global SDG Indicators Database, API extract of series EN_LND_SLUM, EN_ATM_PM25, EN_ACS_URB_OPENSP, SP_TRN_PUBL, EN_REF_WASCOL and SD_CPA_UPRDP (release 2026.Q3.G.01). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (slums), 2023 (PM2.5) and 2020 (transport, open space). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 17Romanello, M. et al., The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms, The Lancet 402 (open access full text, PMC). Elsevier, London, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15Trees halve the urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming, Nature Communications (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (analysis of 8,919 large urban areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Cities Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Cities and Urban Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Cities and Urban Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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