Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cities are where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Cities and water
    2. 8.2 Cities and energy
    3. 8.3 Cities and food
    4. 8.4 Cities and health
    5. 8.5 Cities, nature and climate
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Cities and water

Drinking supply, sanitation and drainage carry urban health, and floods test them. Cities sit on rivers and coasts, and some of the land beneath them is sinking.

1.81billion

people exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood, all settlements13

83.4%

of urban residents with safely managed drinking water, 20242

65.8%

of urban residents with safely managed sanitation, 20242

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Flood hazard1 billion people in severe riverine flood-prone areas in 2025, half in cities; urban flood exposure since 1975 is 3.5 times that of rural areas4Reported
Coastal subsidencesurface-elevation loss across 40 deltas, and faster local subsidence in 48 coastal cities than earlier estimates suggested1626Reported
Drinking supply83.4% safely managed and 96.4% at least basic in urban areas, 20242Reported
Sanitation65.8% of urban residents use safely managed sanitation, 2024; the slum population is not split out here2Reported

Couplings

  • WAT → HLT supply and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT flood and surge
  • INF → WAT drainage and treatment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • network losses in urban supply systems
  • urban demand for supply by 2030

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems

8.2Cities and energy

Cities concentrate the demand for power, cooling and cooking fuel, and the buildings that use them. Access is high, and the next question is the load and emissions of the building stock.

97.8%

of urban residents with electricity, 20242

89.4%

of urban residents cooking with clean fuels, 20242

2030zero-emission

new buildings required in the EU from 1 January 203020

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Access97.8% of urban residents have electricity and 89.4% cook with clean fuels2Reported
Urban emissionsthe consumption-based urban total of about 29 GtCO2-eq includes power consumed in cities6Reported
Building codesEU rules require zero-emission new buildings from 2030 and set a 16% threshold for the worst-performing non-residential stock20Reported
Cooling loadheat exposure is rising; cooling volumes are not bound here and no figure is used33Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → HLT cooling and clean cooking
  • ENE → INF pumping and transit load
  • INF → ENE building load

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • buildings share of energy and emissions
  • urban cooling demand

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems

8.3Cities and food

City residents buy most of their food. Cost, market access and cold storage matter, and housing costs compete for the same budget.

645million

people faced hunger in 2025, global24

2.7billion

people cannot afford a healthy diet, 2026 summary24

31.0%

average housing cost burden, 124 countries, 20234

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hunger645 million people faced hunger in 2025; the page gives no urban split24Reported
Healthy dietsabout 2.7 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet; no urban split on the page24Reported
Urban food seriesno global urban food insecurity series is bound in this edition24NOT BOUND
Household budgetshousing costs average 31.0% of income in 124 countries, which competes with food spending; the link is inferred4Inferred

Couplings

  • FOO → HLT urban diets
  • WAT → FOO supply to markets
  • ENE → FOO cold chains

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • urban share of food insecurity
  • market and cold-chain exposure to heat and flood

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems

8.4Cities and health

Heat, polluted air, road traffic and poor housing shape urban health. The same neighbourhoods often carry all four burdens.

489,000deaths a year

heat-related, 2000 to 201910

4.2million

premature deaths from ambient air pollution, 20198

1.16million

road traffic deaths a year9

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heatabout 489,000 heat deaths a year, 45% in Asia and 36% in Europe; 61,672 excess deaths in Europe in summer 202210Reported
Airurban population-weighted PM2.5 of 27.3 µg/m3 against 15.7 µg/m3 in rural areas, 2023; 99% of people above guideline levels in 201938Reported
Road safetymore than half of road deaths are pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists; 92% occur in low- and middle-income countries9Reported
Housingabout 1.12 billion people in slums or informal settlements, 20225Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → INF → HLT heat and services
  • INF → HLT housing and transport
  • BIO → HLT green space and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • urban heat deaths
  • urban air pollution deaths by city

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems

8.5Cities, nature and climate

Cities emit and are exposed. They also hold the levers of land use, buildings and green cover. Nature is the least measured side of the urban ledger in this edition.

29GtCO2-eq

urban emissions, 2020, consumption basis6

41 to 49%

of the potential urban heat island offset by current tree cover15

13%

of urban centres in low-income countries with moderate or higher greenness, 202217

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissionsabout 29 GtCO2-eq in 2020; rising to 34 or 40 in 2050 under moderate or low mitigation, and 3 on the 1.5 °C pathway (SCENARIO)6Reported
Urban landurban land could triple between 2015 and 2050; the land consumption rate was 0.83% a year in 2020 to 202565Reported
Green spaceurban green space fell from 19.5% in 1990 to 13.9% in 2020 in the SDG Report; the Lancet series shows low-income centres falling from 18% to 13% between 2015 and 2022417Reported
Canopytree cover benefits 914 million people by more than 0.25 °C; canopy continuity is associated with lower under-five mortality in 57 countries1519Reported

Couplings

  • BIO → HLT green space and heat
  • CLI → INF exposure
  • INF → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem effects of urban expansion
  • canopy and cooling in low-income cities

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-11 Cities, Demography and Human Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527 (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London, 2022. Observation year 2020 (population grid). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, API extract of urban population, total population, urban agglomerations, urban access to electricity, clean cooking, safely managed drinking water and sanitation, slum share (database updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (population) and 2024 (access). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (housing, flood, local risk reduction strategies, waste collection, national urban policies). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicator data 2010 to 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16Global subsidence of river deltas, Nature (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (40 deltas, satellite radar). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 26Sinking cities, rising seas, Communications Engineering (2022), commentary on a Nature Sustainability study of relative land subsidence in 48 major coastal cities (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2024/1275 of 24 April 2024 on the energy performance of buildings (recast), Official Journal of the European Union (downloaded text; Articles 7 and 12 read). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6IPCC (ed.), Urban systems and other settlements, chapter 8 in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Future of Cooling: Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning, cited from memory without figures. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 24FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page; 645 million people faced hunger in 2025; about 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year, 2000 to 2019; Europe summer 2022). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 8WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air pollution, fact sheet (4.2 million premature deaths in 2019; 99% of people above guideline levels). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (page date). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 3UN Statistics Division (ed.), Global SDG Indicators Database, API extract of series EN_LND_SLUM, EN_ATM_PM25, EN_ACS_URB_OPENSP, SP_TRN_PUBL, EN_REF_WASCOL and SD_CPA_UPRDP (release 2026.Q3.G.01). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (slums), 2023 (PM2.5) and 2020 (transport, open space). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 5UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11: make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable (Goal page; slum population, land consumption rate, targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022 (slums) and 2025 (land consumption). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15Trees halve the urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming, Nature Communications (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (analysis of 8,919 large urban areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17Romanello, M. et al., The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms, The Lancet 402 (open access full text, PMC). Elsevier, London, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 19Urban tree canopy fragmentation and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026), open access full text, PMC. National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2026 (420,000 children, 57 countries). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Cities Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Cities and Urban Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Cities and Urban Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskGlobal Sector Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Cities and Urban Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices