Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four cities risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table20 notesNR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cities are where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS10-CLI-001

    Extreme urban heat on dense, under-cooled housing

    Driver
    warming combined with population growth in already-warm cities714; 2025 was projected to be the second or third warmest year on record25
    Exposure
    urban heat exposure rose to 119 billion person-days in 201614
    Vulnerability
    informal settlements are hotter in some cities; over-65 heat mortality rose about 85%10
    Capacity
    tree cover offsets 41 to 49% of the potential heat island15
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS10-WAT-002

    Coastal and river flooding on subsiding land

    Driver
    sea-level rise, storm surge, intense rainfall and land subsidence716
    Exposure
    more than 1 billion people in low-lying cities by 20507; 1.81 billion flood-exposed13
    Vulnerability
    informal settlements are left out of adaptation plans12
    Capacity
    110 countries report local risk reduction strategies; 73% average implementation4
    Cascade
    WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS10-HLT-003

    Service gaps in fast-growing informal settlements

    Driver
    urban population grew by more than 397 million between 2015 and 2020, over 90% in less developed regions7
    Exposure
    1.12 billion people in slums or informal settlements5
    Vulnerability
    65.8% of urban residents have safely managed sanitation2
    Capacity
    166 countries report a national urban policy or regional plan3; 68 meet at least one qualifier of the indicator4
    Cascade
    HLT → FIN, WAT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS10-FIN-004

    Municipal finance gap for resilience and climate action

    Driver
    cities receive less than 20% of the finance needed for climate action12
    Exposure
    subnational governments make 39.5% of public investment22
    Vulnerability
    grants are more than half of subnational revenue in many countries; debt is low22
    Capacity
    land-based revenue and national grants; urban finance reform1222
    Cascade
    FIN → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for cities at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSenergy codes for new buildings in force in the EU from 203020; coverage elsewhere not bound
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEgrid-based urban series and SDG indicators publish regularly13
Early warningLISTEDheat and flood warnings exist in places; no global count of city systems bound29
Preparedness and planningEXISTSlocal risk reduction strategies reported by 110 countries4
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDservice redundancy in cities not consolidated31
ResponseLISTEDurban emergency response varies; not consolidated here
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDservice gaps remain in informal settlements25
RecoveryLISTEDno global evidence of recovery capacity in cities is bound
AdaptationEXISTSmany city plans exist but few are implemented7
Social protectionLISTEDhousing support documented but not consolidated4
Finance and insuranceLISTEDcities receive under 20% of climate finance need12
Institutional coordinationEXISTSa global agenda and a European mission label for 107 cities2123
Technical infrastructureEXISTSaccess to power and basic supply is high; sanitation lags2
WorkforceLISTEDmunicipal skills not consolidated here
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong urban climate science; city-level data uneven67
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7IPCC (ed.), Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, chapter 6 in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), e2024792118 (open access full text, PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 2021. Observation year 2016 (series 1983 to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (press release; January to August 2025 about 1.42 °C above pre-industrial). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year, 2000 to 2019; Europe summer 2022). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15Trees halve the urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming, Nature Communications (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (analysis of 8,919 large urban areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Global subsidence of river deltas, Nature (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (40 deltas, satellite radar). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527 (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London, 2022. Observation year 2020 (population grid). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action, key messages (report page; cities receive less than 20% of climate finance needed). United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (housing, flood, local risk reduction strategies, waste collection, national urban policies). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicator data 2010 to 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11: make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable (Goal page; slum population, land consumption rate, targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022 (slums) and 2025 (land consumption). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, API extract of urban population, total population, urban agglomerations, urban access to electricity, clean cooking, safely managed drinking water and sanitation, slum share (database updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (population) and 2024 (access). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 3UN Statistics Division (ed.), Global SDG Indicators Database, API extract of series EN_LND_SLUM, EN_ATM_PM25, EN_ACS_URB_OPENSP, SP_TRN_PUBL, EN_REF_WASCOL and SD_CPA_UPRDP (release 2026.Q3.G.01). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (slums), 2023 (PM2.5) and 2020 (transport, open space). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22OECD and UCLG (eds.), World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment, 2022 highlights (135 countries; 2020 data). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, and United Cities and Local Governments, Barcelona. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 20European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2024/1275 of 24 April 2024 on the energy performance of buildings (recast), Official Journal of the European Union (downloaded text; Articles 7 and 12 read). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results (publication page and press release; 45% of 8.2 billion people in cities, 33 megacities, more than 12,000 cities, Degree of Urbanisation). United Nations, New York, November 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (released 23 March 2026), known from search results only; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 21United Nations General Assembly (ed.), New Urban Agenda, resolution 71/256, adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016 and endorsed on 23 December 2016 (downloaded text). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 23European Commission (ed.), EU Mission: climate-neutral and smart cities (mission page; 112 cities, 107 labelled). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026 (page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 6IPCC (ed.), Urban systems and other settlements, chapter 8 in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Cities Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Cities and Urban Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Cities and Urban Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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