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Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with more ways of seeing the planet than ever, and with the continuity of some of them in doubt. Data volumes are large and open: the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem held nearly 80 PB online at the end of 2024 and delivered more than 200 PB that year9, and the USGS Landsat archive recorded 145 million product downloads in fiscal year 202510. The signal the data carry is stark. WMO reports 2025 at 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average and sea level rising at 4.75 mm a year in 2012 to 2025, against 2.65 mm a year in 1993 to 20113. Copernicus places 2025 at 1.47 °C4. Early warning is spreading: 119 countries reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, though only 43% of small island developing States did2. Funding is firm in Europe, where ESA members subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to the Earth Observation Programme at the November 2025 ministerial meeting7. Continuity is the pressure point. NASA projects end of science for Terra in February 2027, Aqua in September 2027 and Aura in August 202812, Landsat 8 is projected to fall below 50% availability in 203010, and the 2025 loss of MethaneSAT and the planned end of defence satellite microwave data processing showed how quickly a record can be broken2315. Orbits are crowded: ESA models about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm1. Data-driven forecasting entered operations at ECMWF in February 202526. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no agency and recommends no mission.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Earth observation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. WMO reports 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, Copernicus 1.47 °C.34

    How warm was 2025?Reported

  2. 4.75 mm a year in 2012 to 2025, up from 2.65 mm a year.3

    How fast is sea level rising?Reported

  3. Yes. Nearly 80 PB online and more than 200 PB delivered in 2024 at one European service; 145 million Landsat downloads in fiscal 2025.910

    Is data open and used?Reported

  4. ESA members subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to the Earth Observation Programme in 2025.7

    Who pays for it?Reported

  5. No flagship is guaranteed. NASA projects Terra, Aqua and Aura end of science in 2027 and 2028.12

    Are the long records safe?Reported

  6. 119 countries report a system; small island developing States lag at 43%.2

    Is warning reaching people?Reported

  7. ESA models about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm and 1,200 intact re-entries in 2025.1

    Is the orbital environment a risk?Reported

  8. An observation gap that coincides with an extreme season. SCN-GS12-GAP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

119 countries, or 60% of all countries, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did.

Figure S.1Share of countries reporting a multi-hazard early warning system, 2025 (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
All countries60
Asia-Pacific (highest region)72
Americas and Caribbean (lowest region)51
Small island developing States43

Source: UNDRR and WMO status report, WMO press release of 12 November 20252.

Warning depends on satellites, networks and models, and also on risk knowledge, dissemination and response. Mortality is nearly six times lower in countries with more comprehensive systems than in countries with limited capabilities, and Africa shows the greatest gain since 2015 (72% in comprehensiveness) yet the lowest scores2. Observation gaps below the satellite layer limit what a warning can say16.

S.4At a glance

1.43°C

above 1850 to 1900, 20253

4.75mm a year

sea level rise, 2012 to 20253

54,000objects

larger than 10 cm in orbit, modelled1

200PB

delivered by CDSE in 20249

3.4EUR billion

EOP subscriptions, 20257

119countries

with multi-hazard early warning, 20252

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading Earth observation as the sensing layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people Earth observation arrives as a warning, a forecast or a map.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public funding is rising in Europe and shifting toward defence globally, and the Earth observation downstream market is mostly services.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The sensing layer is well measured at the level of data volumes and climate state and thinly measured at the level of redundancy, ground segments and validation.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s Earth observation and planetary intelligence system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a ranking of space agencies or satellite operators, a forecast of any mission outcome, a procurement recommendation or an assessment of any agency, company or government. Mission decisions, data policy and funding rest with agencies, legislatures and operators.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 Earth observation edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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