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Risks and capability

Four Earth observation risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table26 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-INF-001

    Loss of long-record satellite observations

    Driver
    ageing flagships and uncertain funding1211
    Exposure
    climate records, weather forecasts, land and ocean monitoring
    Vulnerability
    single-mission records; intercalibration needed between missions16
    Capacity
    Sentinel and Landsat series; new missions such as NISAR1314
    Cascade
    INF → CLI, FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-INF-002

    Crowded orbits and re-entry debris

    Driver
    growth in launches and constellations1
    Exposure
    active payloads in low Earth orbit; ground observers
    Vulnerability
    about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm; 1,200 intact re-entries in 20251
    Capacity
    mitigation guidelines; proposed common EU rules2544
    Cascade
    INF → DAT → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-DAT-003

    In situ gaps beneath the satellite layer

    Driver
    uneven surface and ocean networks1617
    Exposure
    Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, deep ocean and polar regions16
    Vulnerability
    short-term funding for many in situ series16
    Capacity
    basic observing network and financing facility1743; Argo floats, with 757 carrying biogeochemical sensors in February 202522
    Cascade
    DAT → HLT, FOO, WAT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS12-AIC-004

    Dependence on data-driven models and open archives

    Driver
    rapid adoption of foundation models and data-driven forecasts262930
    Exposure
    forecast services, mapping products, early warning
    Vulnerability
    validation outside training conditions is thin; lower resolution than physics-based ensembles27
    Capacity
    physics-based systems kept in operation26; open benchmarks
    Cascade
    AIC → HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for Earth observation at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSdebris mitigation guidelines and national rules; adherence estimated by ESA144
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEstrong global satellite coverage; in situ gaps persist1617
Early warningEXISTS119 countries report multi-hazard systems; gaps in small island developing States2
Preparedness and planningEXISTSESA subscriptions secured programme continuity to the next cycle7
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDmultiple missions for some variables; no consolidated redundancy register
ResponseLISTEDdata processing extension for microwave data was temporary15
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSSentinel-1D completed the first series in orbit14; flagship ends projected12
RecoveryLISTEDno tested recovery from the loss of a flagship record is documented here
AdaptationEXISTSopen access and data-driven forecasting expanding926
Social protectionLISTEDwarning reach to the most exposed documented but not consolidated2
Finance and insuranceEXISTSEUR 3.4 billion subscribed to ESA Earth observation7; Copernicus Space Component CSC-4 envelope of EUR 3,124.11 million at 2019 economic conditions8
Institutional coordinationEXISTSGEO of 117 members; unified data policy at WMO1918
Technical infrastructureEXISTSopen cloud archives at scale910; ground segment resilience not consolidated
WorkforceLISTEDskills for Earth observation analytics reported in no consolidated series
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong Earth observation and modelling science313233
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 13NASA (ed.), NISAR mission page (launch 30 July 2025; joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6, 4 November 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN COPUOS (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, named in the opened ESA report [1]; no figure is used. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 22US Argo Program (ed.), US Argo National Report for the Argo Steering Team meeting AST-26 (operational float counts as of February and April 2025). Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 19GEO Secretariat (ed.), GEO-21 Info 1.8 (Rev1): New Members, Participating Organizations and Associates. Group on Earth Observations, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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