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Observation is where evidence begins

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures1 table16 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Earth observation risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry Earth observation shocks into other systems?
  • Which Earth observation capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Earth observation is usually described as a technology. The 2026 evidence reads it as the layer that makes every other system’s risk visible. Warnings, crop reports, forest alerts, sea level records and flood maps all start from the same small set of instruments235.

The data side has changed fast. Open archives now deliver data at scale: more than 200 PB from one European service in 2024 and 145 million Landsat products downloaded in fiscal year 2025910. Data-driven forecasting is now operational, alongside physics-based models2627.

The sensing side is more fragile than the data side. Terra, Aqua and Aura are projected to reach end of science between February 2027 and August 202812, Landsat 8 is projected to fall below 50% availability in 203010, and MethaneSAT was lost within about 15 months of launch23. A programme that depends on one mission has no margin.

Funding is uneven. Europe subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to its Earth observation programme in 20257, while the FY2026 US request proposed restructuring Landsat Next with no funding for it11. The warning side shows the same pattern: 119 countries report a system, and small island developing States lag2.

Figure 1.1How far does early warning reach? Countries reporting a multi-hazard early warning system, 2025 (%)

Coverage differs by 29 percentage points between the highest and lowest group shown. Having a system is not the same as having a functioning one; the issuers measure comprehensiveness separately2.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Asia-Pacific72
All countries60
Americas and Caribbean51
Small island developing States43

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

119countries

with a multi-hazard early warning system2

45%

improvement in comprehensiveness score since 20152

72%

comprehensiveness increase in Africa since 20152

6times

lower disaster mortality where systems are more comprehensive2

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Earth observation-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their Earth observation content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
reservoir levels inform operations		STRONG
soil moisture · irrigated area		MODERATE
flood and disease-risk mapping		STRONG
surface extent · lakes and rivers [33]
ENE EnergyWEAK
power for gauges and telemetry		·WEAK
power for ground stations		WEAK
power for warning delivery		WEAK
siting pressure
FOO FoodMODERATE
irrigation change in the record		WEAK
biofuel land signal		·MODERATE
crop failure to hunger		STRONG
cropland expansion in forest loss
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
labour		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchment condition		WEAK
biomass signal		MODERATE
pollination and soils		MODERATE
smoke and fire exposure		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    EO → WAT → FOO

    Soil moisture and rainfall records feed crop condition reports.

    Reported monthly crop condition reports since 201621

  2. 02

    EO → BIO

    Forest and surface water change mapped from archives.

    Reported 30 m forest and surface water maps3233

  3. 03

    EO → HLT

    Heat and hazard monitoring feeds warning systems.

    Reported 119 countries with systems2

  4. 04

    INF → EO → CLI

    Loss of a mission breaks a long climate record.

    Inferred 2025 microwave and methane losses1523

  5. 05

    AIC → EO

    Data-driven models rely on archive depth and open access.

    Reported models trained on Landsat and Sentinel-230

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Observation is where evidence begins. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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