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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the Earth observation baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Infrastructure
    4. 2.4 Data and digital
    5. 2.5 Governance
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 Health
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 AIC
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

119 countries, or 60% of all countries, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did.

Figure 2.1Share of countries reporting a multi-hazard early warning system, 2025 (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
All countries60
Asia-Pacific (highest region)72
Americas and Caribbean (lowest region)51
Small island developing States43

Source: UNDRR and WMO status report, WMO press release of 12 November 20252.

Implication

Warning depends on satellites, networks and models, and also on risk knowledge, dissemination and response. Mortality is nearly six times lower in countries with more comprehensive systems than in countries with limited capabilities, and Africa shows the greatest gain since 2015 (72% in comprehensiveness) yet the lowest scores2. Observation gaps below the satellite layer limit what a warning can say16.

What would move it

The next status report, the 2027 target of the Early Warnings for All initiative, and the surface network data flow from Africa and small island developing States would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    WMO reports the 2025 global near-surface temperature at 1.43 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average and places 2025 as the second or third warmest year; the Copernicus Climate Change Service reports 1.47 °C and the third warmest.34

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Global mean sea level rose at 4.75 mm a year in 2012 to 2025, against 2.65 mm a year in 1993 to 2011, and ocean heat content reached the highest level in the 66-year record in 2025.3

2.3Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    ESA models about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm in orbit, including about 9,300 active payloads, and about 1,200 intact objects re-entered in 2025.1

2.4Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-004

    The Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem held nearly 80 PB online in December 2024, delivered more than 200 PB in 2024 and grew its registered users from 84,000 to nearly 290,000.9

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-005

    The USGS Landsat archive recorded 145 million product downloads and 28 billion accesses through commercial cloud in fiscal year 2025, and Landsat 8 is projected to fall below 50% availability in 2030.10

2.5Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

    ESA members subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to the Earth Observation Programme at the November 2025 ministerial meeting, within a record EUR 22.3 billion in total.7

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    NASA projects end of science for Terra in February 2027, Aqua in September 2027 and Aura in August 2028, from fuel and power limits.12

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

    Institutional space budgets reached EUR 106 billion in 2023, with defence just above half for the first time; in the Earth observation downstream market, 62% of value came from services and 38% from data sales.24

2.7Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    119 countries, or 60%, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did, and mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are more comprehensive.2

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Forests cover 4.14 billion hectares, or 32% of land, and tropical primary forest loss detected from satellite data fell 36% between 2024 and 2025 after a record fire year.65

2.9AIC

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-011

    ECMWF took its data-driven forecasting system into operations on 25 February 2025, and its ensemble version is reported to run over 10 times faster with about 1,000 times less energy than the physics-based system, at lower resolution.2627

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an observation gap that coincides with an extreme season in a region with thin in situ coverage. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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