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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables21 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

CLI · Climate

Global temperature above 1850 to 1900

1.43°C

Copernicus ERA5: 1.47 °C4.

Reported2025WMO3

CLI · Sea level

Rate of sea level rise, 2012 to 2025

4.75mm a year

2.65 mm a year in 1993 to 2011.

Reported2025WMO3

INF · Orbit

Objects larger than 10 cm in orbit (modelled)

54,000objects

about 9,300 are active payloads.

Reported2024ESA1

DAT · Data

EO data delivered by Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem

>200PB

nearly 80 PB online.

Reported2024CDSE9

FIN · Finance

ESA Earth Observation Programme subscriptions at CM25

3.4EUR billion

of a record EUR 22.3 billion in total.

Reported2025ESA7

SYS · Cross-system

Terra end-of-science projection

Feb 2027projected

Aqua Sep 2027; Aura Aug 2028.

Scenario2026NASA12

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through Earth observation, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries Earth observation risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATSurface extent, snow, ice, rainfall and ocean heat are tracked from space; glacier loss in 2024 to 2025 was among the five most negative on record3. Water use volumes are not bound here.EO → WATReported EQL 4
ENEObservation networks and ground segments need reliable power; no consolidated series is bound here.ENE → EOExpert input EQL 2
FOOMonthly consensus crop condition reports for countries at risk of food insecurity have run since 2016 and reached a 100th issue in December 202421.EO → FOOReported EQL 4
HLT119 countries report multi-hazard early warning; heat caused an average of 546,000 deaths a year in the Lancet Countdown series234.EO → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOForest change is mapped at 30 m from Landsat; 2.3 million km2 lost and 0.8 million km2 gained in 2000 to 201232; tropical primary forest loss fell 36% in 20255.EO → BIOReported EQL 5
CLI2025 was 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900 on WMO’s basis and 1.47 °C on the Copernicus basis; sea level 4.75 mm a year34.EO → CLIReported EQL 5
INFAbout 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm are in orbit; 1,200 intact objects re-entered in 2025; ground stations and data hubs carry the system1.INF ↔ EOReported EQL 4
FINEUR 3.4 billion subscribed to the ESA Earth Observation Programme; institutional space budgets EUR 106 billion in 2023724.FIN → EOReported EQL 4
DATNearly 80 PB online at one European service; 145 million Landsat downloads; a unified data policy adopted at WMO in 202191018.EO ↔ DATReported EQL 4
AICData-driven forecasts operational at ECMWF since 25 February 2025; foundation models trained on Landsat and Sentinel-2 archives2630.EO ↔ AICReported EQL 4
MINSatellite and ground hardware depends on materials supply chains; no consolidated evidence is bound here.MIN → EOExpert input EQL 1
TRDLaunch services, imagery and data cross borders; the EU Space Act proposal would set common rules for operators serving the Union25.EO ↔ TRDInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on Earth observation, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemEarth observation makes every system’s change visible32observation gap under extremesPARTIAL
GS-01Watersurface water change mapped at 30 m33flood and low-flow monitoringPARTIAL
GS-02Energynetworks and ground stations need powerloss of ground segmentTHIN
GS-03Food and Agrifood Systemsmonthly crop condition consensus reports21crop shock monitoringPARTIAL
GS-04Health and One Health119 countries report early warning2heat and outbreak warningPARTIAL
GS-05Finance and EconomyEUR 106 billion institutional space budgets24funding shift to defencePARTIAL
GS-06Development and Humanitariansmall island developing States at 43%2warning gap in vulnerable settingsPARTIAL
GS-07Climate and Earth Systems1.43 °C above 1850 to 19003record continuityGOOD
GS-08Disaster and Resiliencemortality six times lower with comprehensive systems2concurrent hazardsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructure, Transport and Logisticsground stations, launch and data hubs1single points of failureTHIN
GS-10Cities and Urban Systemsheat exposure mapped from space34urban heat seasonTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity and Ecosystemsforest loss detected from satellite data56fire-driven lossGOOD
GS-12Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligencethe sensing layer itself1012mission continuityPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and Digital Systemsground segments and cloud archives9attack on a data hubTHIN
GS-14Policy, Institutions and Governanceunified data policy18; EU Space Act proposal25data and space rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Science and Engineering Frontierfoundation models and data-driven forecasts2931validation outside training dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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