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Observation gap under an extreme season

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a flagship mission reaching end of life, or a loss of data flow, that coincides with an extreme heat or flood season in a region with thin in situ coverage
Analogues
the 2025 loss of MethaneSAT and the planned end of microwave data processing2315
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    INF → EO

    a mission ends or a data flow stops; the record is broken

    2025

  2. 2

    EO → CLI

    gaps in the climate and weather record affect initial conditions and trend analysis

    2025

  3. 3

    EO → WAT

    flood and low-flow monitoring lose a sensor in the season it is needed

    to test

  4. 4

    EO → FOO

    crop condition reports lose data in a stress year

    to test

  5. 5

    EO → HLT

    heat and hazard warnings carry less precise information

    to test

  6. 6

    EO → FIN

    insurers and public budgets face wider uncertainty

    to test

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01 would travel through Global Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Infrastructure to eoA mission ends or a data flow stops; the record is broken. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 1
02 EO to climateGaps in the climate and weather record affect initial conditions and trend analysis. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 2
03 EO to waterFlood and low-flow monitoring lose a sensor in the season it is needed. Analogue or source: to test.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 3
04 EO to foodCrop condition reports lose data in a stress year. Analogue or source: to test.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 4
05 EO to healthHeat and hazard warnings carry less precise information. Analogue or source: to test.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 5
06 EO to financeInsurers and public budgets face wider uncertainty. Analogue or source: to test.Edition GS-12, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Earth Observation 2026, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01 (2026); Global Earth Observation 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Observation gap under an extreme season. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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