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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Earth observation and water
    2. 8.2 Earth observation and food
    3. 8.3 Earth observation and health
    4. 8.4 Earth observation and nature
    5. 8.5 Observation continuity, security and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Earth observation and water

Water is observed from space and from the ground. Surface extent, rainfall, snow, ice, ocean heat and sea level are tracked as long records, and the records are only as good as the missions that carry them.

4.75mm a year

sea level rise, 2012 to 20253

90,000km2

permanent surface water lost, 1984 to 201533

184,000km2

new permanent surface water formed, 1984 to 201533

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Surface waterthree million Landsat images mapped change at 30 m over 32 years33Reported
Sea level and ocean heatsea level 4.75 mm a year; ocean heat at a 66-year high in 20253Reported
Glaciersmass loss in 2024 and 2025 among the five most negative on record3Reported
Water usevolumes of water use by sector are not bound here16Expert input

Couplings

  • EO → WAT surface and ocean records
  • WAT → FOO soil moisture and irrigation
  • WAT → BIO surface extent

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • water use volumes by sector
  • in situ gauge coverage by region

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Earth observation and food

Food security monitoring uses satellite vegetation and rainfall data with partner assessments. The consensus method has run monthly for crops at risk since 2016.

100th report

crop monitor for early warning, December 202421

2016year

start of the early warning crop monitor21

145million

Landsat products downloaded, FY202510

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Crop condition reportsmonthly consensus for countries at risk of food insecurity21Reported
Open archivesLandsat and Sentinel archives feed crop and land products109Reported
Small farmscoverage of small fields and yield accuracy are not bound here21Expert input
Forests and foodcropland expansion enters forest loss records5Inferred

Couplings

  • EO → FOO crop condition
  • WAT → FOO soil moisture
  • FOO → BIO cropland expansion

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • yield accuracy on small fields
  • price transmission from crop reports

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Earth observation and health

Early warning, heat exposure and air quality monitoring depend on observation, models and delivery. Coverage is rising, and the gap between countries with and without comprehensive systems is large.

119countries

with multi-hazard early warning, 20252

546,000deaths a year

average heat-related deaths in the Lancet Countdown series34

16days

dangerous heat per person in 2024 attributable to climate change34

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Early warning119 countries, 60% of all; small island developing States 43%2Reported
Comprehensivenessmortality nearly six times lower where systems are more comprehensive2Reported
Heatan average of 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; 16 attributable days of dangerous heat per person in 202434Reported
Air qualitysatellite-based exposure series not bound here34Expert input

Couplings

  • EO → HLT heat and hazard warning
  • WAT → HLT flood and disease risk
  • BIO → HLT smoke exposure

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • warning reach to the most exposed people
  • satellite-based exposure series

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Earth observation and nature

Forests, surface water and methane sources are observed from space. Satellite-based records show where loss slowed in 2025 and where fire raised it.

4.14billion ha

forest area, 20256

36%

fall in tropical primary forest loss, 2024 to 20255

10.9million ha a year

gross deforestation, 2015 to 20256

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forest extent4.14 billion hectares, 32% of land; net loss 4.12 million hectares a year in 2015 to 20256Reported
Tree cover losstropical primary forest loss fell 36% in 2025 after a record fire year5Reported
Long record2.3 million km2 lost and 0.8 million km2 gained in 2000 to 201232Reported
Methanea dedicated satellite lost contact on 20 June 202523Reported

Couplings

  • EO → BIO forest and surface mapping
  • FOO → BIO cropland expansion
  • EO → CLI methane and carbon records

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • methane detection coverage after 2025
  • biodiversity beyond forest cover

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Observation continuity, security and extremes

The observing system has three exposed channels: ageing sensors, thin ground networks and crowded orbits. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows each of them.

2027Feb

projected Terra end of science12

50%

projected Landsat 8 availability in 203010

54,000objects

modelled above 10 cm in orbit1

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing flagshipsTerra, Aqua and Aura end of science projected Feb 2027, Sep 2027 and Aug 202812Reported
Programme fundingFY2026 request restructured Landsat Next with no funding for it11Reported
Ground networksin situ observations deficient over parts of Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, deep ocean and polar regions1617Reported
Orbitsabout 1,200 intact objects re-entered in 20251Reported

Couplings

  • INF → EO record continuity
  • DAT → HLT in situ gaps
  • AIC → EO model dependence

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • funding outcomes after evidence close
  • ground segment resilience

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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