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Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table14 notesNR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is governance risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry governance shocks into other systems?
  • Which governance capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Governance is usually reported as politics: elections, laws, treaties. The 2026 evidence reads it as the layer that decides how water is allocated, how energy is priced, how food is traded and how health emergencies are declared. It is also the layer through which the other systems are paid for6921.

The trend in the rules is negative on the main indices. V-Dem finds the level of democracy for the average global citizen back at 1978 levels, Freedom House records twenty years of decline, and International IDEA finds more than half of assessed countries declining in at least one aspect123.

Institutions are adding tools at the same time. 141 states guarantee access to information by statute, 141 countries have disaster risk reduction strategies, and the General Assembly and the World Health Assembly adopted four major instruments in 2024 and 2025616171819. Adoption is not application: 38% of identical information requests met no substantive reply5.

The means to apply rules are the binding constraint. Net interest paid by developing countries reached USD 995 billion in 2025 and aid fell 23.1%96. Trust matters for outcomes: in one study of 177 countries, trust in government and lower corruption were associated with lower infection rates, and preparedness indices were not28.

Figure 1.1How are the world’s people distributed across regimes and trends? Share of world population, 2025 (%)

Almost three in four people live in autocracies, two in five in countries that are autocratizing, and one in fourteen in liberal democracies. The groups overlap and are not additive1.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Living in autocracies74
Living in autocratizing countries41
Living in liberal democracies7

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

92countries

classified as autocracies at the end of 20251

87countries

classified as democracies at the end of 20251

44countries

autocratizing, with 10 new cases in 20251

18countries

democratizing, with 3 new cases in 20251

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The governance-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their governance content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
hydropower licensing · cooling rules		STRONG
abstraction and irrigation allocation		MODERATE
drinking water regulation		MODERATE
environmental flow rules
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping tariffs · subsidies		·STRONG
fuel and fertiliser subsidies		MODERATE
clean cooking · clinic power programmes		MODERATE
siting and mining permits
FOO FoodMODERATE
farm pollution rules		WEAK
biofuel mandates		·STRONG
food safety · price and nutrition policy		STRONG
agricultural incentives and land-use rules
HLT HealthWEAK
service demand		WEAK
facility power rules		WEAK
dietary guidance		·WEAK
One Health surveillance
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchment protection rules		WEAK
protected-area limits on siting		MODERATE
land-use and pollinator rules		MODERATE
zoonotic risk governance		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    FIN → GOV → HLT

    Interest costs and aid cuts squeeze health budgets while satisfaction with services stays flat.

    Inferred 2025 interest bill9; aid fall6; satisfaction series5

  2. 02

    GOV → FOO

    Subsidy, price and trade governance shape the cost of food.

    Inferred 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet14; appeal gap24

  3. 03

    GOV → ENE

    Subsidy design and access programmes steer energy use and access.

    Reported USD 921 billion of subsidies in 20246

  4. 04

    GOV → BIO

    Harmful incentives and weak enforcement press on nature and on those who defend it.

    Reported framework target on incentives21; defenders killed5

  5. 05

    GOV → WAT

    Allocation rules and aid decide who is served.

    Reported aid to the water sector6

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system. In Nexus Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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